Thursday Night Football Picks: Rams vs. Seahawks Odds & Predictions
Rams vs. Seahawks Odds
| Rams Odds | -2.5 |
| Seahawks Odds | +2.5 |
| Over/Under | 54.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Oct. 7 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks will open Week 5 of the NFL season on Thursday Night Football at Lumen Field. In this intra-division showdown, oddsmakers are expecting a tightly contested affair, pricing the Rams as a field goal favorite on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Rams -2.5
Through the first three weeks of the NFL season, the Rams looked to be the class of the NFC, but a surprising 37-20 loss to the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4 has cooled their market considerably. Is the market correction prudent or an overreaction?
Quarterback Matthew Stafford unambiguously played poorly against Arizona. Per Pro Football Focus, Stafford was only pressured nine times, but still missed open receivers on numerous occasions and made a few costly decisions with the football, including throwing an interception. Still, it was Stafford’s first game this fall with a passer rating under 101.8. On the season, he still owns an extremely impressive 11-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio. The offensive line has been outstanding each week this season, and should be excellent against a good, but not great Seattle defensive line.
By far, the biggest surprise last Sunday against the Cardinals was the inefficiency of the Rams pass rush, creating only 13 pressures. Kyler Murray only had 39 yards with his legs, but he was extremely elusive and able to mostly avoid pressure in the backfield the few times that Aaron Donald, Leonard Floyd, Sebastian Josephy-Dey and Terrell Lewis found themselves with an opportunity to get a hit on him. Russell Wilson presents a similar challenge this week, as a mobile quarterback adept at escaping pressure. Going forward, bettors should pay close attention to how the Rams defense performs against mobile signal callers compared to more traditional pocket passers. Los Angeles also struggled tremendously in the secondary against the Cardinals—a recurring theme the last few weeks. Other than Jalen Ramsey, this entire unit is filled with question marks. Unquestionably, this group will need to play better going forward if they want to reassert themselves as one of the best defenses in the league.
Seattle Seahawks +2.5
Russell Wilson has unsurprisingly been exceptional thus far in 2021. Through four weeks, he has a sterling 9-to-0 touchdown to interception ratio and a phenomenal 72.5 completion percentage. In each of the last four years, he has been better than league average, both from a clean pocket and when under duress. In 2020, Wilson threw for 26 touchdowns against only nine interceptions on throws 10 yards or further down-the-field. He continues to show outstanding rapport with his top two receiving options—Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. The offensive line continues to be a problem for the Seahawks, but Wilson has proven time and again that he is capable of being effective, even without strong protection.
On the defensive side of the ball, Seattle has been a mess this fall. In Week 4, they benefited from a Jimmy Garoppolo injury mid-game, but were still torched for 314 yards through the air and another 143 yards on the ground. Through four games, Seattle has allowed the fifth-most passing yards and the most rushing yards of any team in the NFL. D.J. Reed Jr., Sidney Jones, and Ugo Amadi are going to have an extremely difficult time stopping the Rams when they go to a three wide receiver set. Per Pro Football Focus, Seattle allowed 1.5 yards per rush before contact against the San Francisco 49ers—an indication that Los Angeles is likely to have plenty of space to operate in the running game as well.
Rams vs. Seahawks Picks
After the total opened at over/under 53 earlier this week, it has been bet all the way up to over/under 54.5 at most sportsbooks. Both of these offenses are capable of putting on a show on Thursday. Both defenses are extremely vulnerable in the secondary, especially against elite skill position players.
Los Angeles has totaled 48, 51, 58, and 57 points, respectively, through their first four games. Seattle has totaled 44, 63, 47, and 49 points, respectively, in their matchups. The Rams will be by far the toughest offense that Seattle has played this year. As mentioned above, Los Angeles is starting to look uniquely vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks. The over still has value in this one, even at its inflated price.
PICK: Over 54.5 (-110))
Prop Bet
The Los Angeles Rams have allowed the fifth-highest completion percentage and the eighth-most passing yards in the NFL through four weeks this fall. Their bend, but don’t break defensive strategy should create an opportunity for plenty of yardage through the air for Russell Wilson this evening. Wilson has been as dynamic as ever in 2021—throwing for nine touchdowns and zero interceptions in four games. He is averaging 261 passing yards per game, despite only needing 149 yards in an easy win against the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. Expect Seattle to have to throw the ball a lot in this one to keep pace with a lethal Los Angeles offense. The Rams defense has a strong reputation, but they are vulnerable in the secondary outside of Jalen Ramsey. Wilson should have a strong statistical performance tonight.
Pick: Russell Wilson o268.5 passing yards (-110), at PointsBet
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