TNF GB v. SEA Grind Down: Week 1

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-05 03:39:52

Quick Take

• Find value in the SEA offense, notably Marshawn Lynch and punt receiving options
• The GB offense is a recommended fade, but represents the most contrarian plays of Week 1

Green Bay at Seattle

The 2014 NFL Season kicks off with a matchup between two teams projected to win their divisions, as the Green Bay Packers travel west to Seattle to take on the reigning Super Bowl Champion Seahawks. The last time these teams met was 2012, a 14-12 Seahawks victory in which Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was sacked 8 times and the game ended on Golden Tate’s now-infamous ‘Fail Mary’ touchdown reception. This time around, Vegas has the Seahawks as a 5 point favorite, a spread influenced by Seattle’s significant advantage at home, where they hold a 15-1 regular season record since 2012. The DFS application here is simple: downgrade the Packers offense. Though the total is a modest 45.5, Grinders playing slates that include this game will find at least one solid play, Top-3 RB option Marshawn Lynch, who should be able to exploit the Packers soft interior run defense. Lynch’s success should create a few sneaky value plays in the SEA passing game, as the heavy doses of Beast Mode open up play-action shot plays down field.

Green Bay Packers

Green Bay’s 2013 season ended with a 23-20 home loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. Expectations are higher for the Packers this year, as a healthy Aaron Rodgers returns to again lead an offense that was prolific in both the pass (6th) and run (7th) in 2013 despite being without Rodgers for half the season. The strength of this team is the passing game, led by Rodgers, and complemented by one of the top receiving corps in the NFL in WRs Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and Jarrett Boykin. All three will be viable most weeks in DFS, as the Packers used 3-WR sets on 79% of their pass plays last season (3rd most in NFL per Pro Football Focus). However, this week is not most weeks. Despite the strength of the Packers passing attack, expectations need to be tempered in this game, as the Packers face 2013’s most dominant defense on their home soil. The Seahawks defense has very few holes – rating as the top coverage unit, top pass-rushing unit, and JUST the 4th best run-stopping unit per PFF. The secondary is especially stifling from a DFS perspective, as the Seahawks only surrendered 10.6 FPPG to opposing QBs in 2013 (even Matt Schaub averaged more per game). Don’t anticipate many easy throws for Rodgers, especially on the outside vs CBs Richard Sherman and Byron Maxwell. QBs throwing into Sherman’s coverage last season had an NFL-low QB rating of 36.2, and they didn’t fare much better throwing at Maxwell (47.8 QB rating allowed). Both corners excel at shutting down outside receivers, which is very bad news for #3 WR Jarret Boykin, who plays outside in 3-WR sets, and is the least likely of the GB WRs to find success against this defense. Avoid him completely. Jordy Nelson is the other WR who will see most of his time on the outside in a horrible matchup, but we can find at least a glimmer of hope in the 52.1% of snaps Jordy played from the slot last season (albeit when was Cobb injured). Nelson is also Rodgers’ most reliable red-zone target, with 5 of his 9 TDs from Rodgers coming within the red-zone. However, the best GB WR option is primary slot man Randall Cobb (94.7% slot snaps, per PFF). If the Seahawks have one weakness in the secondary it’s their new slot corner, Jeremy Lane. At first glance it would appear that Lane was effective in limited work last season given his positive coverage grade, but a closer look shows he still allowed a 66.6% completion percentage and 86.6 QB rating. Look for Rodgers to exploit Lane’s matchup with Cobb, or any other receiver for that matter.

The TE position for GB isn’t DFS-friendly almost regardless of matchup, much less in this one where new starting TE Richard Rogers will face a bevy of athletic linebackers who are also effective in coverage (including a top-5 rated coverage OLB in K.J Wright), as well as imposing safety Kam Chancellor. Don’t be fooled by their rank as only the 13th-toughest versus the TE: aside from a bizarre game in which Matt Schaub became the only QB to throw for 300+ yards against Seattle in 2013 (including 140 yds and a TD to his TEs), the Seahawks have been downright stingy vs the TE. Due to his new role, Dick Rodgers is min-priced across the industry, but there are more worthy punts in much better situations this week.

In addition to a lockdown secondary, the Seahawks also have a deep rotation of effective pass rushers. They should wreak havoc on a Packers offensive line that recently lost top utility lineman Don Barclay for the season, as well as starting center J.C. Tretter for several weeks. The Tretter injury forces fifth-round rookie Corey Linsley into the starting lineup. An undersized rookie center, making his first NFL start, on the road, in the loudest stadium in the NFL… that’s going to end well. Seahawks DT Brandon Mebane and the rest of the interior DL will be in the Packers backfield all night. Linsley will certainly get help, but that will likely leave LT David Bakhtiari on an island against pass rusher Cliff Avril (28.5 sacks since 2011). Aaron Rodgers’ decision-making and release time will need to be exceptional for the Packers passing attack to have a chance.

The key to the Packer’s offensive success will be the play of second-year RB Eddie Lacy. Lacy was a revelation as a rookie – breaking the 4th most tackles in the NFL per PFF, on his way to 1,178 yards rushing and 11 TDs. He will need to carry his 2013 momentum and preseason form (5.54 YPC) into Seattle, where the Packers will aim to pound Lacy against a strong but not elite run defense (9th in rush yards allowed/game) that just lost one of its best run defenders (Red Bryant) to free agency. If Lacy can establish any traction against the Seahawks run D, Rodgers might be able to find matchups to exploit with quick-hitting, high-percentage routes. I worry this might be wishful thinking, especially with a rookie center battling both behemoth linemen and the 12th Man. Even without room to run, though, Lacy should be able to rack up at least a few receptions on check-down passes, as the Seahawks allow 5.2 receptions to RBs per game, 10th most in the NFL. That adds up quickly on full PPR sites. And if the new-look Seattle defensive line turns out to be worse vs. the run than we think, Lacy could make for a sneaky, low-owned RB option this week.

Seattle Seahawks

Lost in all the talk about the elite QBs who throw for 5000 yards each season is the story of the Super Bowl Champion QB who is elite in areas that you can’t see on a stat sheet. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson quietly graded as PFFs 4th best quarterback last season, while demonstrating a unique skill-set that gives him exceptional upside currently capped by Seattle’s conservative, run-first offensive scheme. Playing behind a suspect offensive line that allowed pressure on 43.8% of his drop-backs in 2013 (2nd highest in the NFL), Wilson posted the third-highest grade in the NFL vs pressure, and had the highest grade in the NFL on plays where he was forced out of the pocket. Always a threat with his legs as well, Wilson tallied 581 rushing yards in 2013 and the highest grade in the NFL on scrambles. These traits have been magnified this preseason as Wilson not only eviscerated defenses with his passing, but also tallied 3 rushing TDs and seemed able to score at will once plays broke down. Yes, it’s preseason, but there is a different look to this offense, and it could mean Wilson’s exceptional real-life value will better translate to DFS. Wilson’s 2014 debut will be against a Packers defense that struggled across the board in 2013 (24th vs the pass; 25th vs the run), and has a history of being abused by mobile quarterbacks (most recently allowing 98 rushing yards to Colin Kaepernick in the playoffs). New RT Justin Britt will have his hands full with Clay Matthews, which will force Wilson into the pressure situations he excels at, and could lead to additional scrambling opportunities as well. We’ll learn quickly whether Wilson has taken the next step. I anticipate the Packers defense being on its heels for most of this game, as Wilson’s savvy under pressure and the Seahawks punishing run game open up shot plays down the field. Given his midseason form and plus matchup, Wilson is easily a top-8 QB option this week with upside to crack the top-5.

One interesting note about the Seahawks passing scheme and its effect on this game. The Seahawks passing offense thrives on play-action (34.1% of all passes, highest in the league per PFF). This matches up especially well with a Packers defense that struggles vs play-action, having ranked 28th in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) against play-action in 2013, per Football Outsiders. Here’s the kicker: reports out of Packers camp suggest the Packers DBs have been struggling badly against a scout-team offense that has been mixing in double-moves and heavy play-action in preparation for Thursday night’s game. If the Packers can’t defend such plays against their own practice squad, we might be in for a passing showcase from Wilson and Co Thursday night…

The focal point of the Seahawks passing attack this season is a finally healthy Percy Harvin. Harvin offers weekly GPP-winning upside with his elite elusiveness and additional usage as a rusher and returner. Anticipate him running high-percentage routes from the slot as the Seahawks try to leverage his after-the-catch skill-set. While few teams have the personnel to cover Harvin, the Packers have an awfully good option in returning slot man Casey Hayward. Hayward, who played in only 3 games in 2013 due to injury, was quietly one of the best CBs in the NFL in 2012. QBs throwing into his coverage in 2012 had an NFL-worst 31.1 QB Rating per PFF. I know the Packers defensive rankings suggest this should be a cake matchup for Harvin and the rest of the Seattle WRs – but those numbers don’t include the impact of the player who is arguably the Packers best defensive back. I’m not denying Harvin’s upside here, even when facing an excellent slot corner, but I’m likely looking elsewhere in GPPs this week.

With Harvin working from the slot, Doug Baldwin will move from his old slot role to become the primary outside WR. Baldwin’s skill-set is not the same as old outside man Golden Tate, and he won’t be the primary option either, a combination which will limit his upside most weeks. This week especially I advise avoiding Baldwin, despite the Packers seemingly poor defense vs WRs. If the Packers leave Casey Hayward on Harvin, emerging #1 corner Sam Shields will likely match up with Baldwin on the outside. I don’t think Baldwin gets much done with Shields in his pocket.

The best value of the Seahawks WR corps this week is red-zone specialist Jermaine Kearse, who will feature as the other outside receiver opposite Baldwin. I will list Kearse as a GPP punt option at WR almost every week Seattle plays this year. The reason is simple – Russell Wilson looks for Kearse in the red zone, and Kearse delivers. The duo hooked up for 6 TDs last season (including 2 in the postseason), and nearly connected on a few more. They’ve already hooked up for a TD this preseason. Chemistry between QB and WR is a real thing, and these two have it. Expect a few deep shots to Kearse in this one, and watch out for him when the Seahawks get into the red-zone.

The final punt option in this game is Seahawks #2 TE Luke Willson. Seattle beat writers have Willson pegged as a breakout player this year as the Seahawks primary receiving TE. Willson certainly has the measurables: he’s 6’5, 251 lbs., and runs a 4.51 40. Look for Willson to use his athleticism to challenge the Packers safeties in the middle of the field. He’ll only see a few targets, but I still think he’s the Seattle TE you want to own on Thursday (which most weeks isn’t saying much).

It may take a few weeks before we get a good read on the value of the new roles within the Seahawks passing game, but the one thing we know for certain about this offense is that the driving force is their running game. And it’s here we find the best overall play in this game, as 2013’s leader in both broken tackles and Skittles eaten, Marshawn Lynch, looks to expose a Packers run defense that was rated 5th-worst vs the run in 2013 by PFF. They also allowed the 5th-most yards to opposing running backs (113.4). That ranking looks to get even worse in 2014, as the Packers recently lost starting NT B.J. Raji for the season. Replacing Raji is former Viking Letroy Guion, who PFF rated as the 11th-worst defensive tackle in the NFL last season. We don’t need a weather update from Kevin Roth to know that this forecast predicts a heavy downpour of Skittles Thursday night.

GB @ SEA Targets

Green Bay

QB: Aaron Rodgers – This is one of the only matchups all season I won’t recommend playing Rodgers. As one of the top 3-4 most expensive QBs across the industry, there’s minimal advantage to be gained even if he does outperform expectations here. Given that, it’s hard to warrant paying such a high price for what is likely to be an average result. I think Rodgers caps his own upside in this one by limiting his risks and not forcing throws against this secondary. Of course he always has a chance to have an elite night, and you know his ownership will be the lowest you’ll see it all season, but remember what happened to the last elite QB that faced this defense?

RB: Eddie Lacy – I think there’s sneaky GPP appeal here. As mentioned above, Seattle’s lone (relative) vulnerability is versus the run. This possible vulnerability, coupled with a few check-down passes, make Lacy a contrarian option on full PPR sites, especially where he is priced outside the top tier RBs (i.e. on DK where his 6500 tag makes him only the 11th most expensive RB)

WR: Jordy Nelson – You’re paying for the chance that his matchup is the one Rodgers likes, and you know he’s the likely target in the red zone. Nelson’s ownership will also likely be extremely depressed as most people will assume Sherman will blanket him, which due to Nelson’s versatility will not be the case unless GB wants it that way (insert Backstreet Boys joke here). I think he gets a touchdown, but I wouldn’t expect much more.

WR: Randall Cobb – if there’s a GB WR to own in this matchup, my money is on Cobb. The passing attack will have to run through him for the Packers to have any shot in this game. His role in the offense likely gives him the highest floor of all GB WRs as well. If he’s priced outside the top-10 WRs on a full PPR site, rostering him is a lot easier to stomach.

Defense/Special Teams: While Clay Matthews may feast on Seattle’s new RT, this unit’s vulnerability vs the interior run will lead to plenty of scoring drives for Seattle. That’s reason enough to avoid the Packers D this week.

Seattle

QB: Russell Wilson — At prices of 8100 on FD and 7700 on DK, Russell Wilson is priced as a Top 12-13 QB for Week 1, presenting a good value given the matchup. Don’t forget about his upside in GPPs.

RB: Marshawn Lynch – Roster with confidence. He is the 8th highest RB on both FD and DK and carries top-3 upside this week.

WR: Percy Harvin – The matchup has me off Harvin in general, but he is only the 19th most expensive WR on DK. Always a GPP option.

WR: Jermaine Kearse – Kearse is either min-priced or close to it across the industry, which makes him an enticing GPP punt play due to his TD potential. The Seahawks should move the ball easily against this defense, which means more red-zone snaps and potential targets for Kearse.

TE: Luke Wilson – A longshot min-priced TE. Wilson looks like a good option when compared to the TE on the other sideline, but there are more reliable punts this week with much higher upside.

Defense/Special Teams: The Seahawks D is locked and loaded as the top unit for 2014 – and they are priced accordingly. Paying up for them vs what projects to be one of the year’s most prolific offenses is unnecessary. There’s upside if the rookie center crumbles, but Rodgers’ accuracy and awareness limits turnover potential.