TNF Grind Down: BAL vs. PIT

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-12 00:30:58

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Weekly NFL Grind Down Article. There’s no better place to start your research for NFL action in the week ahead than the Grind Down. Each week, we break down every game in an effort to better prepare you when building your daily fantasy lineups.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Pittsburgh at Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers						Baltimore Ravens
Thurs – 8:25 PM						M&T Bank Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-6.5	43	24				-1.5	43	22.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	30	9	2	14		Offense	16	25	7	13
Defense	27	22	13	31		Defense	23	18	25	6
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Baltimore	25	10	25	12		Pittsburgh	11	24	16	18
Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1		Rec. Targets	Total	Seas	Last3	Last1
Brown	6	6	11	14		Smith	7	7	9	7
Wheaton	7					Jones	7	7	7	8
Miller	4					Clark

Quick Grind

• Bottom-5 Vegas total (43) and tight spread (1.5) limits plays in likely grind-it-out affair
• Target running games and kickers

Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Ben Roethlisberger

• DK: $7300 (13TH)
• FD: $7800 (16TH)

The Steelers passing game came out firing in Week 1, with QB Ben Roethlisberger carving the Browns secondary for 23/34 and a 365-1-1 line that could have been much bigger if the game flow called for it. I wouldn’t expect a similar top-12 finish from Ben this week, however. This week he faces a Ravens secondary that kept everything in front of them Week 1 until QB Andy Dalton found WR AJ Green behind the defense for a 77-yard TD with 5 minutes left. Before that miscue, Dalton was under 230 yards passing and the elite Green had been held to 5-54 receiving. Baltimore expects to return top CB Lardarius Webb for this one, giving them a formidable duo of CBs to slow down Steelers WRs. The Steelers OL will be key in this one after allowing 4 sacks to the Browns in Week 1. The Ravens pass-rush also looked their age Week 1, generating little pressure and not a single sack. Expect a mediocre performance from Ben as both teams lean on their run games early. He’s best avoided this week, and is sandwiched between 2 QBs with excellent matchups (Andy Dalton, Jake Locker) that I would suggest pivoting to instead.

WR Antonio Brown

• DK: $7600 (4th)
• FD: $8300 (5th)

Hopefully you read last week’s column and started Brown last week despite the “bad” matchup vs CB Joe Haden – Brown beat the elite corner again for a 5-116-1 line and should really get bonus points for that ninja kick on the Browns punter. Past history vs the Ravens suggests we should temper expectations for Brown here, but his primary matchup is coming off injury and may be exploitable. If Lardarius Webb sits, Brown is an all-go vs Week 1 burn victim Chykie Brown (allowed 6-138 Week 1). Either way, Brown is a good option on full PPR sites but may not have much room to explode vs the Ravens new bend-don’t-break philosophy. Brown’s salary makes it tough to recommend him as anything other than a GPP option this week.

UPDATE: Ravens CB Lardarius Webb is inactive tonight, giving Brown a juicy matchup against CB Chykie Brown (see above). He’ll see some of Jimmy Smith too, but expect a higher floor and ceiling now that the Ravens top CB is out.

WR Marcus Wheaton

• DK: $4900 (41st)
• FD: $5100 (60th)

From last week’s column: “Wheaton makes a perfect target for your 3rd WR in a GPP – he could absolutely torch whatever the Browns throw out opposite Haden”. Wheaton did indeed torch non-Haden Browns in Week 1, finishing 6-97 and looking like a trusted option for Big Ben during the game-winning drive. While Wheaton will be a sneaky 3rd WR in DFS this season, I recommend avoiding him this week against CB Jimmy Smith. Smith was effective in shutdown coverage in 2013, was reportedly the most impressive defensive player at Ravens camp this year, and only gave up 3 receptions for 14 yards Week 1. Yikes. If Lardarius Webb sits again, Wheaton will see some of CB Chykie Brown, but the likely coverage of Smith limits Wheaton’s upside this week. Let others roster him after his solid Week 1, while you look elsewhere due to the matchup.

TE Heath Miller

• DK: $3300 (19th)
• FD: $5200 (19th)

Miller wasn’t needed much Week 1 as the WRs did the heavy lifting: he finished a lackluster 3-26 on 4 targets. This week should be different if Ravens CBs Webb and Smith clamp down on Brown and Wheaton. Miller was exceptional in his last matchup with Baltimore, racking up 8 receptions for 86 yards. In that game Ravens MLB Daryl Smith struggled covering Miller, and struggled Week 1 as well. Miller makes for a sneaky top-12 option at TE this week, with additional value on full PPR sites. Don’t discount his red-zone value.

RB Le’Veon Bell

• DK: $7600 (3rd)
• FD: $8900 (4th)

Bell doubters might want to skip this part. Putting concerns over his 3.5 YPC in 2013 to rest, Bell rumbled for 21-109-1 (5.2 YPC) vs the Browns. He also demonstrated why he’s one of the few dual-threat feature backs in the NFL with 6-88 receiving. I overlooked reports of Bell dropping 12 pounds this offseason and boy was that a mistake. Bell didn’t just look good vs the Browns, he looked elite — with quickness and power that led to an NFL-high 11 missed tackles and PFF’s top elusiveness rating from Week 1. He faces a stiff test this week against a Ravens squad that had the 8th-highest run D rating in 2013 according to PFF. Their run D projects to be strong again in 2014 as some of their younger players emerge. Bell was able to find success against this group on a per-carry basis in 2013 (4.6 and 4.9 in two games). In addition, likely cover man MLB Daryl Smith gave up 56 YAC vs the Bengals last week, a positive sign for Bell’s receiving value. With game flow in Bell’s favor here and newfound elusiveness to his game, target Bell as an ideal #2 RB on sites like DK that haven’t overcompensated for Week 1.

Others

The Steelers #3 WR/slot role receives the leftover targets after Brown-Wheaton-Miller-Bell and is an unappealing target for DFS. WR Lance Moore has already been ruled out, which leaves WR John Brown as the likely starter again. Brown has size (6’3, 207) but little else. Avoid him.

Baltimore Ravens

QB Joe Flacco

• DK: $6400 (21st)
• FD: $6800 (22nd)

Joe Flacco threw a mind-boggling 62 passes Week 1 and still only managed a completely Flacco 35/62 for 345-1-1. Only a trademark heave to new WR Steve Smith for an 80-yd TD saved Flacco from a truly horrid stat line. This week he faces a Steelers D that ranked 9th vs the pass in 2013 and limited Browns QB Brian Hoyer to 230 yards passing in Week 1. It’s a matchup that isn’t horrible but doesn’t inspire much confidence either. Game flow likely doesn’t help Flacco in a rivalry game that is typically a duel of running games and kickers. There are at least 20 QBs I would rather use than Flacco this week.

WR Torrey Smith

• DK: $5000 (38th)
• FD: $5900 (41st)

After inheriting the Andre Johnson role in Head Coach Gary Kubiak’s offense, Ravens #1 WR Torrey Smith managed just 3-50 on 7 targets last week. I think we see much better this week against a defense Smith had one of his top performances against in 2013 (6-93-1). Top Steelers CB Ike Taylor was torched in 2013, allowing over 1000 yards and 6 TDS on his own, and struggling vs Smith in their last matchup. The game flow likely won’t do Smith any favors, but the individual matchup is exploitable. In addition, QB Joe Flacco commented this week about Smith as a 100-catch WR, which could suggests increased focus on funneling the ball to Smith after he was just 3rd on the team in targets last week. Finally, expect many to be off Smith due to his lackluster Week 1, and the low total in this game. Smith shapes up as a solid 2nd WR with sneaky upside this week if he and Flacco can get back on track.

WR Steve Smith

• DK: $5500 (25th)
• FD: $6300 (31st)

Hopefully lots of people roster Smith after his 7-118-1 Week 1 performance; I won’t be one of them. Take out his saving-grace 80-yard TD and Smith went 6-34 on a whopping 14 targets. Yawn. Most weeks Smith will be at best the Ravens 3rd receiving option, which isn’t appealing outside games with high totals where the Ravens project to be trailing. This week isn’t one of those games. Smith has GPP appeal in the event he can again tie for the team lead in targets, but is best avoided beyond that. Especially when he costs more than teammate Torrey Smith.

TE Dennis Pitta

• DK: $5600 (6th)
• FD: $6100 (8th)

Pitta outperformed PPR TE1 expectations last week, tying for the Ravens lead in targets en route to a 10-83 line. The Steelers were stingy vs the TE last season but gave up 90 yards to Browns TEs last week. He projects safely as a Top-8 option at TE this week.

RB Bernard Pierce / Justin Forsett

• DK: $3600 (46th) / $5000 (25th)
• FD: $5300 (46th) / $5200 (51st)

There’s an elephant in the room that won’t be addressed here. On to the DFS analysis…
The Ravens running game has the potential to be one of the top values of Week 2 – if you can get it right. After a 11-70-1 rushing performance and an added 5-14 in the passing game, most think journeyman RB Justin Forsett has earned the biggest workload vs the Steerlers. He certainly gains additional value in the passing game. However, he doesn’t physically fit the bill of a feature back at (5’8, 197). I personally hate that angle. It seems clear that coach Kubiak trusts Forsett in this offense (the two were also together in Houston), which might be all that matters this week. If you agree with the consensus voice and think Forsett gets the work this week, he’s an excellent salary-relief 2nd RB or FLEX that allows you to go big at WR.
A sneaky GPP option here is current doghouse tenant Bernard Pierce, who wasn’t heard from in Week 1 after fumbling early. Pierce is an excellent fit for the Ravens run scheme and had beat writers opining that he was the best Ravens RB in camp. Now without Ray Rice, the Ravens cannot afford to just shelve Pierce and move on. There’s talent here, and opportunity if he can seize it back. Pierce is too risky for cash games, but could be an excellent payoff if the Ravens go back to him and he rolls early on Thursday.

Others

Keep an eye on #3 RB Lorenzo Taliaferro in this game. Taliaferro is a 4th-round rookie who fits the Ravens run scheme and already demonstrates three-down potential with competent pass-blocking. He only got a single snap and zero touches after Pierce’s benching last week, but could be the long-term answer if Pierce is doubted more than we think. There’s an outside shot Taliaferro’s first extended look comes this week, but unless we hear something encouraging about his workload prior to the game, don’t roster him outside deep GPP shots.

The Ravens #3 WR is undefined. Last week a stable of WRs rotated with little distinction, although the trio of Jacoby Jones, Kamar Aiken, and Marlon Brown racked up 12 targets between them. Jones could be a GPP option at best but I would avoid this situation altogether.