TNF Grind Down: GB vs. MIN

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-04 18:17:14

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota Vikings						Green Bay Packers
Thu – 8:25 PM						Lambeau Field
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9	47.5	19.25				-9	47.5	28.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	22.8	18	31	8		Offense	23.0	16	5	27
Defense	23.0	16	5	27		Defense	22.8	18	31	8
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Green Bay Packers	11	29	9	3		Minnesota Vikings	6	20	18	16
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Patterson	21	13	0	181		Nelson	49	33	3	459
Jennings	23	15	1	204		Cobb	30	21	5	239
Wright	16	11	0	169		Boykin	7	2	0	17
Ellison	5	3	0	65		Rodgers	3	2	0	52

Quick Grind

• The Packers pass attack is back on track
• If Bridgewater sits, avoid Vikes receivers and target the Packers defense
• Vikings RBs should gash Packers run D if they get consistent volume

Minnesota Vikings

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Update: Reports are that QB Teddy Bridgewater will be inactive and Christian Ponder will start. The entire Vikings offense becomes risky if Bridgewater sits

After a tumultuous past few weeks, Vikings fans finally have a glimmer of hope. Teddy Bridgewater had an excellent starting debut vs the Falcons, completing 63% of his passes for 317 yards and adding 5-27-1 rushing. Teddy looked in complete command of the offense, making checks at the line, showing poise in the pocket, and establishing an early rhythm with screen passes and effective play-action. The threat of his read-option rushing kept the Falcons defense honest and improved the efficiency of the Vikings run game, which led to easy conversions for the rookie QB. Despite Bridgewater’s encouraging play in Week 4, there are a few factors working against him this week. The first is health: Bridgewater is questionable for Week 5 due to the ankle injury that knocked him out of the game last week. The second is the matchup: the Packers have been surprisingly stout vs the pass in 2014, allowing the 5th-fewest passing yards, and 11th-fewest FPPG to QBs this season. They have the personnel to lock down the Vikings outside receivers, and are much more likely to be beaten on the ground than through the air. Their pass rush is also a concern: whereas the Falcons sport the 4th-worst pass-rushing grade on Pro Football Focus, the Packers rush is the 11th-best. They also have PFF’s top 3-4 OLB in Julius Peppers bookending the always dangerous Clay Matthews, a duo that should feast on Vikings LT Matt Kalil, who currently has the worst pass-blocking grade of any OT in the NFL. All together it doesn’t shape up as an inviting matchup for the rookie signal-caller, assuming he plays.

QB Christian Ponder

If Christian Ponder starts, the Vikings will be a disaster (sorry, Mom). Their only hope will be a reliance on the run game, as Ponder lacks the arm talent and awareness to direct any NFL passing attack. Ponder has shown that he’s a willing runner in the past (mainly because he can’t get yards with his arm), but relying on a Ponder rushing TD is an exceptionally risky proposition. Avoid him if he starts.

WR Cordarrelle Patterson

Patterson had another quiet in Week 4, managing only 2-38 on a measly 4 targets. His usage has been discouraging thus far and didn’t change in Bridgewater’s first start. The only silver lining here is that Patterson’s ownership percentage should be suppressed as a result of his lackluster performances the past few weeks. He is a GPP-only play, with a much brighter outlook if Bridgewater is able to play.

WR Greg Jennings

Jennings went for 3-72 in Week 4, but, like Patterson, only had 4 targets. The line is especially disappointing given the generous matchup he faced. I don’t like Jennings chances against either of the Packers outside CBs this week, who have kept their former teammate in check since he’s joined the Vikings. Jennings should emerge as a reliable option for Bridgewater as the season progresses, but this will be a tough matchup for him.

WR Jarius Wright

Jarius Wright proved that chemistry can be crucial for rookie QBs, as the connection he built with Bridgewater on the second-team helped the duo hook up for 8-132 in Week 4. Bridgewater was clearly looking for Wright on several plays, and even audibled to WR screens a few times in the 1st quarter. Many are already writing off Wright’s performance – but should we? Wright and Bridgewater have a clear connection, and Wright is used as a high-percentage safety blanket that fits Bridgewater’s strengths. I don’t anticipate Wright’s role in the offense will change until Kyle Rudolph returns, which should mean reliable targets in most matchups. Wright is the Vikings WR I would trust most this week.

The Vikings Mess at TE

Week 4 offered little hope for a DFS-relevant Vikings TE to emerge in the wake of Kyle Rudolph’s injury. Bridgewater targeted Wright as his safety blanket, and largely ignored the TEs. Rhett Ellison played 72% of snaps but was primarily used as a blocker, only receiving 2 targets (2-22, 2PC). The role of receiving TE appears to have shifted to Chase Ford, who played fewer snaps (53%) than Ellison, but ran more routes. He only finished with 1-17 on 3 targets, but was split wide on a few plays that were checked into WR screens, and for now appears the Vikings TE to target in the passing game. The matchup is favorable this week vs a Packers defense that struggled defending the middle of the field vs the Bears last week, allowing 9-134 to Martellus Bennett. I would be more apt to target Wright this week, but if you must have a Vikings TE, it looks like Ford is the guy.

RB Matt Asiata

Matt Asiata continues to be the most prolific low-talent multi-TD threat in the NFL. He bashed the Falcons defense for 20-78-3 in Week 4, and will remain the Vikings high-volume, between-the-tackles grinder until the Vikings coaches change their mind on Jerick McKinnon. Asiata benefited from a horrific Falcons run D in Week 4 that was also consistently frozen by Teddy Bridgewater’s read-option fakes; a more disciplined defense won’t allow him to hit the second-level so easily. Fortunately for Asiata, the Packers are giving up both the 4th-most rushing yards and FPPG to RB; they also are the proud owners of PFF’s worst run defense grade. Does this mean we should expect another 3 TDs from Asiata? Probably not. But if Bridgewater plays, Asiata will be a great bet for goal-line opportunities, in addition to his high-volume pounding. He’s a solid #2 RB this week.

RB Jerick McKinnon

There is a scene in the 2010 film “Get Him to the Greek” where Russell Brand stabs Jonah Hill in the chest with an EpiPen (a la the scene in ‘Pulp Fiction’), sending a dose of adrenaline to Hill’s heart and causing him to surge off the ground and charge out in a frenzy (~0:45 here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pNjKak2-NDc). That’s what Jerick McKinnon reminded me of in Week 4, surging his way to 18-135 on the ground (with an overturned TD to boot). He looked like he was shot out of a cannon on several of his runs. Even after McKinnon’s explosion last week, Vikes boss Mike Zimmer still called McKinnon a COP back on Monday – I don’t buy it. I think the Vikings realize what they have, and will get McKinnon 10+ touches every week, keeping his legs fresh to finish off opposing defenses once they’re worn down by Asiata and the Vikings mauling OL. McKinnon is certainly the Vikings easiest route to big plays (since they aren’t using Patterson). If the Vikings can open up holes vs the Packers this week and get McKinnon to the second-level without contact, watch out. He is a cheap, high-upside GPP play at RB this week, with big-play ability on every touch.

Green Bay Packers

QB Aaron Rodgers

In perhaps the most obvious bounce-back performance of Week 4, Aaron Rodgers picked apart the no-name Bears secondary, completing 78.5% of his passes for 302 yards and 4 TDs. Rodgers will be largely matchup proof the rest of the way, but faces an interesting test this week against a Vikings secondary that allows the 6th-fewest FPPG to QBs. The new-look Vikings defense has been playing much better than it did in 2013 (no doubt a result of new defensive-minded HC Mike Zimmer), but is still prone to amusing defensive lapses. The Falcons exposed the Vikings secondary on 2 wide-open TDs last week, beating them with fake screens and play-action that showed how green of a unit the Vikings are. Rodgers should have no trouble beating this group, and is a top-3 option at QB this week. Take note, though, that Rodgers ceiling might be a bit lower if Bridgewater isn’t able to play, and the Vikings are easily blown out.

WR Jordy Nelson

Jordy Nelson had his second big performance of 2014 last week, posting 10-108-2 against the Bears. Any time Rodgers and Nelson face a similarly weak secondary, Nelson will be in play as the top WR option. The Vikings top CB, Josh Robinson, has been exceptional so far in 2014 after being torched in 2013, but I seriously doubt he’ll be able to contain Nelson this week. Jordy is a top-3 WR option.

WR Randall Cobb

Through 4 games, the 5’10 Cobb has been one of the deadliest red-zone WRs in the NFL. He went toe-to-toe with teammate Jordy Nelson’s production in Week 4, finishing 7-113-2 and actually dropping a third TD that would have brought his season total to a ridiculous 6. Cobb will face one of 2013’s top slot corners this week, Vikings CB Captain Munnerlyn. Despite his dominance in 2013, Munnerlyn has been picked on repeatedly so far in 2014, having allowed 85.7% of passes completed for 157 yards, 2 TDs, and a 153.0 QB rating. So… probably go ahead and roster Randall Cobb with confidence.

WR Davante Adams

Adams gets mention here for what his Week 4 line should have been: 3-52-1 (he had a 34-yard TD called back). That’s a strong performance from a punt WR, and one that we can look to as a decent barometer of what the “Packers #3 WR” role offers us on a weekly basis. In that role, Adams makes the list of punt WRs this week.

RB Eddie Lacy

I’m starting to worry about Eddie Lacy. The 2nd-year bruiser managed only 17-48-1 vs the Bears in Week 4 and was the lone Packers offensive disappointment. Lacy’s YPC sits at 3.0 for the year, and he’s averaging a full 5 fewer carries per game compared to 2013. I loved Lacy as a runner last season, but his usage and production thus far has been concerning enough to make me want to see a ‘prove it’ game before relying on him as a #1 RB in DFS. He could get extra carries in this one once the game gets out of hand, and should be guaranteed a few goal-line carries to help him reach value as a #2 RB this week.

Others

The Packers don’t have a consistent receiving option at TE.

Good luck in your Thursday games this week!