TNF Grind Down: HOU vs. IND

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-10 15:52:00

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts						Houston Texans
Thu – 8:25 PM						Reliant Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		-2.5	46	24.25				2.5	46	21.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	31.2	1	2	19		Offense	20.8	23	30	15
Defense	20.8	23	30	15		Defense	31.2	1	2	19
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Houston Texans	13	16	25	6		Indianapolis Colts	16	18	3	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Wayne	45	30	1	384		Johnson	42	27	0	320
Hilton	50	31	0	381		Hopkins	31	24	3	354
Nicks	24	15	2	123		Posey
Allen	20	15	4	204		Graham	13	10	0	98

Quick Grind

Keep an eye on Arian Foster’s health (again)
TY Hilton had huge game vs Texans in 2013…
…but Andre Johnson had a MONSTER game

Indianapolis Colts

QB Andrew Luck

Luck had a ‘down’ game by his lofty standards in Week 5, throwing for only 312 yards after going for 370+ in 3 of the first 4 weeks. He added a TD through the air and one on the ground, but also threw 2 INTs. The 15-yard rushing TD probably ‘saved’ Luck’s fantasy day (you might even say he’s getting a little Lucky), but doesn’t it seem like he’s doing something out of the ordinary every week? His whatever-it-takes-to-win antics have been great for us in DFS so far. This week he gets a Texans team that is a slightly tougher than average fantasy matchup, but ranks as the 7th-toughest coverage unit on Pro Football Focus as well. The Colts might aim to target the Texans weak run defense instead here, but be careful thinking that will keep Luck from piling up yards. The last time I wrote that Luck might not be needed to do much vs a weak defense, he dropped 370 yards and 4 TDs on the Jags. He’s a top-5 option this week.

WR Reggie Wayne

Wayne was his usual reliable self in Week 5, tying for the team lead in targets en route to a 7-77 line that could have looked even better had he not dropped a TD. After a slow start to 2014, Wayne has racked up 20 targets and 14-186-1 the last two weeks. This week Wayne should be active early and often against Texans slot man Kareem Jackson; Jackson has done well against lesser receivers but struggled against Victor Cruz (3-99-1) in Week 3. Wayne is high-floor #2 WR this week.

WR TY Hilton

Like Wayne, Hilton has turned it on of late, going 9-90 last week and 15-195 the past two. And like Wayne, he also just missed out on a TD last week. Hilton has heavy supply working for him, and is translating it into steady production of late – all that’s missing are the trademark big plays. While a matchup with Texans CB Jonathan Joseph may not seem inviting at first glance, Hilton actually dominated this team, and Joseph in particular, last season:

No, that’s not a typo: Hilton went off for 121 yards and 3 TDs in a game vs the Texans last season. And most of it was with Joseph in coverage. We haven’t seen OC Pep Hamilton put Hilton’s speed to good use yet, but Hilton’s supply, recent performance, and matchup all point to monster potential this week. Cross your fingers for some deep bombs.

TE Dwayne Allen

All Allen does is catch TDs, hauling in another last week. But that’s all we really need him to do. The Texans appear to be tough on TEs, allowing the 6th-fewest FPPG to the position. However, they’re actually surrendering a healthy amount of receptions and yards, and have allowed an average of over 6 catches and 72 yards to teams with reasonable receiving TEs (WAS, NYG, DAL). Allen should get you 40-60 yards with the ever-present threat of a TD.

RB Ahmad Bradshaw & Trent Richardson

The Texans defense makes both members of the Colts two-pronged rushing attack viable in DFS this week. The Texans are allowing 121.6 rushing yards per game to RBs, and are fresh off DeMarco Murray trampling them for 136 yards in the Battle For Texas. Of the two, Richardson is the candidate for the larger carry workload, but his volume is game flow dependent – if you think the Colts are going to smack the Texans, Richardson could make for an interesting (and by interesting I mean boring but high-volume) punt RB. Bradshaw’s burst and role in the passing game have made him a solid full PPR option thus far.

Houston Texans

RB Arian Foster

Last week I described Arian Foster as a ‘high-risk/high-reward’ play based on his questionable health leading up to the game – he definitely fell on the ‘high-reward’ end of the spectrum. Foster simply dominated the Cowboys start to finish, piling up 157 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Foster is an elite runner as long as he is healthy, a condition which will be tested on 4 days rest this week. If Foster plays, he is a solid #1 RB against a slightly below average Colts run defense.

WR Andre Johnson

Another practice-less week has Johnson questionable for Thursday’s tilt with the Colts. He’s likely to play, but it’s unfortunate he won’t be at full strength to settle the score from last season. In two 2013 games vs the Colts, Johnson compiled 13-247-3. Awesome, right? Only if you had him on the right week: in Week 9, AJ put up 9-229-3 for approximately 1000 fantasy points. In the Week 15 rematch: just 4-18. I still go to therapy to this day because of Johnson flopping so hard in Week 15.
This week Johnson will match up with the same CB from 2013: Vontae Davis. Johnson won their first matchup in 2013, whipping Davis for 2 TDs. But Davis and Co completely shut down Johnson (and Case Keenum) in their rematch. This year, Davis has taken his play to a whole new level – he’s currently allowing a QB Rating of 12.3 on throws into his coverage. That’s insane. I’m pretty sure QBs get a rating of 12.3 just for strapping up their helmet correctly. Johnson vs Davis 3 has a fascinating story, but with Johnson’s health concerns, and Davis’ elite play, we should temper expectations for the WR here. It’s usually foolish to bet against Andre Johnson, but the risk here is just too high.

WR DeAndre Hopkins

Hopkins produced another solid line (6-63) in Week 5, and has done so the majority of 2014 despite averaging just over 6 targets per game. With 354 yards and 3 TDs so far, Hopkins is making the most of his chances — many of which have been highlight-reel big plays. When Vontae Davis is covering Johnson, CB Greg Toler will be matched up on Hopkins. Toler has peculiar metrics so far in 2014: he is tied for the 5th-worst coverage grade on PFF, yet is only allowing a 48.6% completion percentage, and 54.7 QB Rating. Toler’s 2 INTs and 3 passes defensed appear to be suppressing the chunks of yards Toler is regularly allowing, a weakness that perfectly fits Deandre Hopkins’ skillset. Hopkins big-play ability makes him a GPP play as your #3 WR.

OTHERS

QB Ryan Fitzmagic is a low-upside QB unless you play on a site that gives bonus points for beards that need to be trimmed.