TNF Grind Down: NE vs. NYJ

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-10-17 03:10:36

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there.

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New York Jets at New England Patriots

New York Jets						New England Patriots
Thu – 8:25 PM						Gillette Stadium
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		9.5	46	18.25				-9.5	46	27.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	16.0	30	31	15		Offense	26.7	11	10	21
Defense	26.7	11	10	21		Defense	16.0	30	31	15
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New England Patriots	5	21	4	11		New York Jets	31	7	23	27
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Decker	34	20	3	258		Edelman	56	40	1	409
Kerley	40	20	1	172		Amendola	8	4	0	23
Nelson	14	7	0	54		LaFell	34	15	3	282
Cumberland	22	12	0	104		Gronkowski	46	26	4	341

Quick Grind

•Keep an eye on the weather!
•Target the Patriots passing attack vs Jets abysmal secondary
•Be careful guessing Patriots RBs
•The Jets are bad

New York Jets

TE Jace Amaro

This breakdown of the Jets is gonna get ugly in a hurry, so I’m going to lead with my favorite Jets play this week. I’ve been mentioning Amaro for the last few weeks because of reports that he would be featured in the offense – and last week that finally happened. Amaro went off for 10 catches, 68 yards, and a TD on a team-high 12 targets. What’s most interesting here is that Amaro wasn’t just used as a typical seam-stretcher or safety blanket: the Jets used Amaro as a chess piece in Week 6, with diverse routes and even splitting him out wide. He’s basically used as just another WR, and is shaping up to be a matchup nightmare for LBs and safeties. This week I expect the Jets to lean heavily on Amaro again, with Eric Decker presumably locked down by CB Darelle Revis. Last week the Bills employed a similar strategy against the Pats, attacking them down the seam and in the slot, albeit with vastly inferior talent Scott Chandler… and Chandler went off for 6 catches and 105 yards. Moreover, the Pats just lost starting LB Jarod Mayo for the season, so their LB corps will be in flux and could yield some miscommunications in coverage. Amaro makes for a very sneaky punt TE or even FLEX on full PPR sites. It’s risky, but it’s all the Jets have.

RB Chris Ivory

The one other possible saving grace for the Jets this week is RB Chris Ivory. Ivory still runs like he’s angry as hell about something, and is fully capable of stampeding through the Pats Jerod Mayo-less run D. There are a few problems here though. The Jets grade out as the 7th-worst run-blocking unit on PFF, and last week the Broncos consistently punched holes in their line and shut down the run game entirely. The Jets are also expected to be trailing in this one, which will drastically reduce the snaps and carries for Ivory to work with. The silver lining here is actually the weather. If the weather forces both teams to tone down their passing, the Jets hold a sizable advantage. In that case I think Ivory makes a sneaky #2 RB option in GPPs. If the skies are clear though, I worry Ivory might be phased out by a seemingly inevitable blowout.

WR Eric Decker

On to the mess. I’m going to give you the good news on Decker first:

• He enters Week 7 with little question of his availability (Probable tag)
• He’s coming off an encouraging Week 6: 6 catches, 54 yards, 1 TD on 10 targets

And here’s the BAD news:

• He’ll be locked up with Darelle Revis

It’s very difficult to get excited about Decker in this matchup. Decker has long been panned for his inability to beat press-man coverage (cough, Super Bowl, cough), and now faces arguably the best pure cover corner on the planet in Darelle Revis. I’m not going to say much else here. Decker is an EXTREMELY contrarian GPP WR, but shouldn’t be expected to do much of anything this week if he’s locked up with Revis all game. He could sneak in 50-60 yards and a TD, but I don’t see much else unless the Pats go huge and pull their starters in the 4th quarter.

QB Geno Smith

Geno is likely in for another rough week. The Pats allow the 5th-fewest FPPG to QBs, have an outstanding pass-rush advantage with Chandler Jones off the edge, and will lock down Eric Decker with Darelle Revis. Geno will need to literally become a wizard to have any shot in this one. Avoid him this week.

New England Patriots

TE Rob Gronkowski

The first note I have on the Pats this week is a quote by Gronk that concludes with “sometimes I like getting lit up.” This, along with the Week 6 film vs the Bills, should produce a collective ‘Oh, S***’ in the Jets defensive meetings this week. Gronk is back to being the playfully violent maniac we know and love. He rampaged for another 7-94 last week that also included a TD that was called back. No defense can account for him, and certainly not the Jets, who have allowed the 6th-most FPPG and about a million TDs to opposing TEs. Broncos TE Julius Thomas caught another 2 of them last week. Fire up Gronk as the top TE option this week.

WR Julian Edelman

Edelman was back to his short-intermediate surgery last week, tallying 9-91 vs the Bills. He should have little problem replicating against a Jets secondary that allows the 10th-most FPPG to WRs and just lost their only saving grace at CB. Not much else to say here, Edelman is an ideal #2 WR on full PPR sites.

QB Tom Brady

Brady is making a lot of people look really, really silly for writing him off after a slow start to 2014. He dropped 361 yards and 4 TDs on the Bills D last week, and has a similar ceiling this week against a Jets D allowing the 2nd-most FPPG to QBs. My only worry is that the Jets are able to terrorize Brady with the pass-rush – the Pats OL actually has the worst pass-blocking grade in the NFL, and matches up very poorly with the strengths of the Jets. I have no doubt that Brady is capable of carving up a defense that is graded as the 7th-worst coverage unit, but if Brady is under constant duress I think we see a modest game instead of a huge one.

The Pats’ RB Mystery

With RB Stevan Ridley lost for the season, the big question is: what will the Pats do at RB? To save yourself lots of pain and anguish, your answer should probably be, ‘who cares?’ It’s going to be difficult to guess what the Pats are going to feature in their first game post-Ridley. The most likely option is a heavier usage of Shane Vereen, but I seriously doubt the Pats will pound him against this tough Jets front line. Other candidates include veteran Brandon Bolden, rookie James White. Bolden will likely handle the traditional RB dirty work, but we may see White handle more carries if Bolden falters. Honestly, even though the Jets have been exposed a bit vs the run lately, I wouldn’t risk one of your RB slots on an unclear backfield. Leave it open for the Sunday games instead.

The Pats’ Non-Gronk/Edelman Mystery

There’s a lot of GPP upside to be found in Pats receiving weapons outside Gronk and Edelman this week… it’s just very difficult to parse out who will actually produce. The most likely candidate is WR Brandon Lafell, who had his 2nd explosive game in the last 3 weeks with a 4-97-2 line vs the Bills. LaFell is a big, tackle-breaking outside WR, but can just as easily have two total catches as two TD catches. He’s certainly risky but is the top option outside Gronk and Edelman. TE Tim Wright caught another TD last week… but it was both his only catch and his only target. His snap count makes him a risky play, but there’s always a chance the Pats feature the 2 TE set we saw two weeks ago and Wright has another strong day. The final (and most interesting) option is WR Brian Tyms. Tyms came back from suspension last week and promptly caught a 43-yard TD bomb in triple coverage. He only saw 8 snaps, but has gotten rave reviews from Pats coaches this week and will be used as a lid-lifter at WR. He could explode or do nothing, but if the coaches love him and Tom Brady trusts him, that’s plenty reason to give him a shot in a GPP.