TNF Grind Down: Week 4 - NYG vs. WAS

by ohnjz Last Updated 2014-09-26 00:52:25

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

New York Giants at Washington Redskins

New York Giants						Washington Redskins
Thu – 8:25 PM						FedExField
Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Sprd	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	45	20.75				-3.5	45	24.25
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	19.3	24	19	18		Offense	27.0	5	6	2
Defense	27.0	5	6	2		Defense	19.3	24	19	18
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Washington Redskins	20	1	28	4		New York Giants	27	20	27	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Cruz	22	12	1	191		Garcon	32	22	1	227
Randle	20	11	1	67		Jackson	22	14	1	198
Beckham						Roberts	14	9	0	117
Donnell	23	18	1	182		Paul	24	18	1	253

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins

Quick Grind

• Redskins passing attack faces stiffer test vs Giants
• Both RBs should see solid carry volume
• Giants passing game should expose Redskins secondary

New York Giants

QB Eli Manning
Remember last year when everyone who enjoyed pain and suffering just KEPT starting Eli because of his good matchups? Those folks are going to start having flashbacks this week, as Eli faces a Redskins secondary that was just lit up by the Eagles passing attack, and also just lost top DB DeAngelo Hall. While they’re sure to decline following Hall’s injury, the Redskins already offer an appealing matchup, allowing the 13th-most FPPG to QBs and grading as PFF’s 12th-worst coverage unit. Their CBs this week are a motley crew and should be easily exploited. Here’s how they break down:

Not exactly a fearsome trio, is it? The CB matchups alone make Eli an enticing GPP play this week. But be careful: he was a ‘GPP play’ a lot in 2013 too.

WR Victor Cruz

The Giants passing game Cruzed to victory last week largely due to the performance of their top WR, who went 5-107-1 vs the Texans. Cruz’s breakout game could have been even bigger, had he not been caught from behind (!) on a sure-fire TD by Texans CB Darryl Morris and his 4.33 wheels. The bottom line is that Cruz is capable of similar performances most week, as he can turn a sliver of separation into chunks of yards in a hurry. Cruz has played 89.4% of his snaps from the slot in 2014, per PFF, and will likely matchup with Redskins slot man EJ Biggers. Biggers played safety in 2013 and was horrible, grading as PFF’s 5th-worst safety in coverage. He’s moved to the slot in 2014, which I think he’ll regret this week vs Cruz. If you’re investing in the Giants passing game this week, Cruz is a strong option to consider. He makes for a solid #2 WR in GPPs.

WR Reuben Randle

Randle led the Giants in targets last week but didn’t end up with much to show for it, finishing Week 3 with 5 catches for 27 yards. However, the usage is encouraging considering Randle’s 3-target Week 1; his involvement in the short passing game and red-zone should give him enough volume for occasional sneaky production in DFS. I think this week is a good time to take a shot on Randle, considering his matchup vs a Redskins secondary allowing the 5th-most FPPG to WRs. He’ll likely see RCB David Amerson primarily, who was poor in coverage in 2013 (see table above). Randle also has a miniscule price across the industry. His TD-upside, matchup, and appealing price make Randle a sneaky GPP play as your #3 WR or FLEX this week.

TE Larry Donnell

The Legend of Larry continues. Former nobody Larry Donnell had another strong showing in the passing game Week 3, pulling in 6-45 and continuing to be a high volume and consistent target for Eli Manning. There is a caveat — he lost a fumble, something HC Tom Coughlin really doesn’t like – but this consistent volume and role in the offense make him an enticing salary relief TE where his price hasn’t been aggressively adjusted.

RB Rashad Jennings

Jennings was excellent last week, racking up 34-176-1 vs the Texans. The 34 carries is not a typo. Jennings is a true engine RB, and is one of only 3 RBs to receive 20+ touches each week so far in 2014. You might think his huge yardage total was fueled by a long run (or several), but Jennings’ longest run was only 18 yards in Week 3. What’s most impressive is that he churned out chunks consistently, and regardless of the direction of the play – Jennings had a run of 9 yards or more from 5 separate rush directions (i.e. behind LT, C, etc.); you rarely see such effectiveness balanced across the entire OL. The Giants run dominance will be tested this week against a Redskins team that is surprisingly allowing the fewest FPPG to RBs. Their PFF run defense grade is actually middle-of-the-pack though, suggesting they’re not as ‘for real’ as the FPPG data suggests. Regardless, I think Jennings’ heavy workload alleviates any matchup concerns in this one. Jennings’ price has leapt after his monster day, but he still represents a strong value on many sites, and should be a top-8 option at RB this week. Fire Jennings up as your #1 RB or as an exceptional complementary RB on sites where he’s discounted.

Washington Redskins

QB Kirk Cousins

By now you probably that Cousins carved up the Eagles for 427 yards and 3 TDs last week. Frankly, he looked as excellent as his line suggests. The questions this week are if he can replicate his performance (no), or if he’s at least for real (probably). The test for Cousins here will be making the same throws in much tighter coverage vs the Giants trio of strong CBs. The Giants pass D numbers are still skewed relative to their talent based on their horrid Week 1, and are allowing the 6th-most FPPG to QBs. However, they’re coming off a 3 INT performance in Week 3 and should be able to shut down at least one of the Redskins WRs with CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. I’m saying all this to explain that Cousins has a bit more risk in this one than you might expect by just glancing at the numbers. The Redskins scheme will maximize Cousins strengths, and if his intermediate and deep ball accuracy from the first half of Week 3 carries over here, we could see another strong performance. I would be cautious using him though given his rapidly adjusted price across the industry, you’re basically paying for his likely ceiling given the over-corrected price. Couple that with the inevitable leap in ownership % from all the people that chase last week’s performance, and you have a situation that could be a lucrative fade.

WR Pierre Garcon

Pierre Garcon is a PPR beast. After going 113-1346 in 2013, Garcon basically racked up 10% of his 2013 totals in Week 3, going 11-138-1 vs the Eagles. It appears the Cousins-Garcon connection is intact after all. Garcon faces a stiffer matchup than Eagles “burnt out” “CB” Cary Williams this week, in the duo of DRC and Prince Amukamara. My worry is that the Giants will shift DRC from his usual LCB spot to shadow Garcon. If that isn’t the case, though, Garcon will likely see RCB Prince Amukamara. Amukamara has allowed some big plays so far in 2014, recently being burned by DeAndre Hopkins last week. Any weakness in a CB is reason enough to fire up Garcon, who should see 10+ targets and be a strong full-PPR option this week.

WR DeSean Jackson

Do you believe in revenge? DJax made a strong case for ‘team narrative’ last week in his revenge game vs the Eagles, going 5-117-1 with a trademark long bomb TD. Before we all rush to get the GPP stud in our lineups, however, we should note that he’s likely to face shutdown coverage from Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. If there’s a CB in the NFL that has the wheels to hang with DJax on deep balls, it’s DRC and his 4.29 40 time. Obviously there’s more to the equation, but from a physical standpoint I really dislike DJax’s matchup in this one and will likely avoid him. He’s a GPP option for the bold or uninformed only.

TE Niles Paul

I really like Niles Paul as a weapon in this Redskins offense. He looks every bit as savvy a receiver as you’d expect from a guy who was… a WR in college. He is producing like a #2 WR, averaging 6-84 so far in 2014, and is also second on the team in targets. His matchup vs a Giants team that allows the 7th-fewest FPPG to TEs is a little misleading, given that the Giants have faced DET, ARI, and HOU thus far. Paul is easily the top receiving threat they’ve faced at TE in 2014. Paul makes an excellent full PPR option at TE this week.

RB Alfred Morris

Alfred Morris is a frustrating player when he doesn’t score a TD. Morris managed 23-77 last week but couldn’t find the end-zone, which meant he wasn’t very helpful to us. That’s the risk with a player who is an absolute zero in the passing game. Morris enthusiasts can take solace in his projected 20+ carry workload (avg 22.5 carries in week 2-3), and the matchup this week vs a Giants D that gave up 13-78 (6.0 YPC!) to Alfred Blue last week. The catalyst is the loss of MLB Jon Beason, who is doubtful this week. Morris should have the workload and yardage total this week… if you think he punches in a TD as well, he makes for a solid #2 RB.