To Vick or Not to Vick?
To Vick or Not to Vick
By Cal ‘Braskey’ Spears
Mike Vick’s fantasy performance yesterday was perhaps the most historic of the daily fantasy industry. Vick dominated every league last week, winning tens of thousands of dollars for his owners. In fact, WaiverWire informed me that the highest finisher in the FFFC that did not have Vick in his QB slot was 41st place! This is on a day when the much less expensive and often-rostered David Garrard put up a very nice game in his own right. With that in mind, would you be insane not to roll with Vick again this week? Or is rostering Vick the kind of Johnny-Come-Lately move that the sharks love? The following are my thoughts on Vick in week 11 on the various daily sites.
Surveying a few rankings sites, Vick seems to be week 11’s consensus 4th or 5th ranked QB. Matthew Berry is the only person I found that has him ranked #1, which is kind of scary. The Giants obviously pose a much tougher match-up. They will get more pressure to Vick than he’s seen this season. His passer rating, accuracy, and no INT streak should all be going down. The bombs to Jackson and Maclin wont’ work as well, but Vick will have plenty of chances to run. Also, the Giants secondary has been beaten down recently, especially by one Jon Kitna (5 TDs in 1.5 games against them in the last month). The quotes coming out of New York suggest the Giants are terrified of this match up. I’ve rarely heard defensive players gush so openly about the ability of the opposing QB. Coughlin said it best when asked about watching Vick Monday night – “I had indigestion, stomach ache.” Like everyone else, the Giants have no good answer to what Vick and the Eagles offense brings to the table.
Vick’s floor is low despite the opponent. The extra 5-12 points a week he gets on the ground buoys any poor passing performance. Not that poor passing should be a major concern – he’s throwing better than ever and is surrounded by stellar athletes. After last week we now know what his ceiling is. Vick is my #1 QB yet again this week, edging out Rivers and Rodgers. I won’t start him in heads up matches on every site because of salary restrictions, but I will build my roster around him in the multiplayer tournaments. Leagues with 10 or more players require you to gamble on upside guys. This is especially true on FFFC and SportsGeek, where you’re up against over 500 players. The payouts are so top-heavy in the multis that if you’re not playing to win you shouldn’t be playing at all. You can usually capture Vick’s upside at the cost of downgrading a couple of your WRs to Mario Manningham and James Jones. Both of these receivers fit well into the high upside strategy. Here are some of my thoughts on Vick on a site by site basis:
|Most Expensive:||Rodgers at $9900 (most expensive player I’ve ever seen on FD, in fact).|
|Of Interest:||Jon Kitna at $6900, Tyler Thigpen at $4600|
Notes: Coming off the highest score for a QB in a fantasy game ever, Mike Vick is the 11th most expensive QB. Don’t ask why, just get him! Vick is my target here, but I’ve put together some rosters I absolutely love with Kitna at the helm. If you read this article in time to take Thigpen I would recommend trying a couple of teams with him. He’ll get extra points points with his legs and his salary allows you to afford a Pro Bowl squad.
|Mike Vick:||$242 (25% of cap)|
|Most Expensive:||Mike Vick, followed closely by Brees|
|Of Interest:||Vince Young at $128|
Notes: FSL always makes it gut-wrenching to roster the top players, but sometimes you can find values to help you fit in the studs. Keiland Williams is a huge value on FSL at $35. If he gets the start I’m going with Vick at QB. If he doesn’t get the start I’m upgrading RB all the way up to a Gore or Hillis and downgrading QB to Vince Young.
|Most Expensive:||Phillip Rivers at $17600|
|Of Interest:||Eli Manning at $11,000|
Notes: This is the no-brainer of the week. Vick is the 6th most expensive QB and listed in a similar salary range to Vince Young and Colt McCoy. You get $100,000 and need to roster 2 QBs. There is plenty of room to fit Vick into your line up and work in a couple of value picks later.
|Most Expensive:||Philip Rivers at $10000|
|Of Interest:||Ben Roethlisberger at $5160|
Notes: Big Ben continues to be incredibly cheap on DraftZone. I think I’ve used him every week since he’s returned from rape suspension. I’m going with Vick in the $500 guaranteed and Big Ben in the heads ups. I can’t put together a WR squad that I’m comfortable with after paying for Vick, but the extra $5k from Big Ben makes it easy.
Notes: There is no cap on Factor. I won a large field freeroll here last week by putting my 3x on Vick. I will do that again this week in the large field tournaments, but for heads up games I would put my 3x on Frank Gore, with 2x on Chris Johnson and Roddy White.
Think Vick is going to blow it this week? Please let me know in the comments section.