Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 20th
Last night Shane Victorino showed why I believe that some people should not be switch hitters. Victorino had a hand issue which forced him to hit right handed against Tim Lincecum. Victorino is not generally that great of a hitter from the left side, in the last 3 years only averaging .244 and in his attempts against Lincecum had a pretty bad BVP. Well, he hit against Lincecum from the right side and went 3-3 with a double. Small sample, granted, but maybe he should try just being a right hander for a while and see what it gets him. I do not think it can hurt.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Wells | 1.255 | 0.266 | 0.292 | 0.94 | Buehrle – L | 4.29 | 0.305 |
| Carlos Ruiz | 1.059 | 0.295 | 0.291 | 0.99 | De La Rosa – L | 3.22 | 0.356 |
| Andy Dirks | 0.812 | 0.289 | 0.297 | 0.97 | Pelfrey – R | 5.26 | 0.252 |
| Omar Infante | 0.948 | 0.333 | 0.341 | 1.07 | Pelfrey – R | 5.26 | 0.326 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1.122 | 0.332 | 0.4 | 0.95 | Cingrani – L | 2.78 | 0.309 |
| Carlos Beltran | 0.797 | 0.324 | 0.368 | 1.02 | Lohse – R | 3.17 | 0.319 |
| Josh Hamilton | 0.89 | 0.264 | 0.303 | 0.99 | Salazar – R | 4.08 | 0.249 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.776 | 0.33 | 0.372 | 0.91 | Saunders – L | 4.86 | 0.326 |
| Jed Lowrie | 0.555 | 0.315 | 0.333 | 0.91 | Saunders – L | 4.86 | 0.286 |
| Yadier Molina | 1.21 | 0.352 | 0.377 | 1.03 | Lohse – R | 3.17 | 0.329 |
- Vernon Wells is not getting much playing time with the return of most of the Yankee bats however with his history tonight and the double header, I do not see how Girardi does not play him in game 2. Wells is still hitting over .300 on the season against lefties and is 24 for 53 against Buehrle which is no small sample. Granted, many of those at bats happened a while ago, but he only has struck out 4 times so it definitely tells me that Wells sees Buehrle well.
- Still criminally underpriced everywhere, Carlos Ruiz showed why his price is too low against Manship yesterday. The good thing for Ruiz is that instead of facing a right hander, he gets to face a left hander today in De La Rosa. Ruiz is hitting .356 with a .901 OPS against lefties this year and De La Rosa has struggled away from Coors and given up all of his homers to right handers. Ruiz is a great cheap option today.
- I think my favorite stack tonight is going to be the Tigers. While Pelfrey does not get lit up, he is consistently bad and gives up 3-4 ER every time out, and this has been against bad offenses recently. The Tigers really rake against right handers and at home, so any Tigers lefties have the green light tonight. I like Dirks because of his doubles power and cheap price tonight as his per dollar upside should be very nice.
- This matchup looks really nice for Omar Infante tonight as this season he is hitting right handers at a .326 average. While his slugging is not as good against them, Pelfrey allows right handers to hit at a .335 clip and Infante has a history against Pelfrey with 15 for 34. He does not look like he will get you much power but he could be a good source of runs and RBIs in a high powered Tigers offense.
- I have kind of strayed from Paul Goldschmidt recently due to his high price point, but I am back in the gold rush for tonight. Goldschmidt is back hitting lefties at a 1.001 OPS and is homering almost once in 10 at bats which is a real impressive rate. He faces off against Cingrani today who has allowed right handers to hit him for 10 homers this year. While Cingrani is good, Goldschmidt is one of the best hitters in the majors and is hitting in Great American tonight.
- Carlos Beltran salary is really cheap on a couple of sites from what I remember, and for his upside he can be a steal tonight. He is 24 for 38 off of Lohse which is a ridiculous number also with 4 homers and 11 walks equaling a 1.458 OPS. It is obvious that he has Lohse’s number and in a hitters park having hit a home run last night, I think he goes back to back nights with a dinger.
- I was high on Josh Hamilton last night but that was before Salazar got scratched. I still like Hamilton tonight against Salazar due to the high homer potential that Salazar gives. Hamilton had a stinker last night, but I am expecting a rebound game tonight.
- Josh Donaldson is crushing left handers and gets a cush matchup tonight against Saunders. Saunders has been awful away from Safeco, and has been awful against right handers giving up 18 home runs against them this year. Donaldson has lost a little bit of power but he should have the ability to take Saunders deep tonight. I am loving the Oakland right handers including Cespedes as well tonight.
- Jed Lowrie stats are a little bit confusing this year. He is not hitting lefties as well as righties, however in his career he has done a lot of work against left handers hitting them for .100 points of OPS better than right handers, so I am not sure what the hold up is this year. He will hit right handed against Saunders so fire away with this shortstop against the awful away from home Saunders who has given up 18 HR to right handed batters this year.
- What a return from the DL Yadier Molina is having. It took him one game to get back into it but he still is hitting at a 1.210 OPS including that game in his return. Tonight he faces Lohse who he is 7 for 13 with a homer off of, and most of the Cardinals have really done damage against Lohse in their histories. This could be an ugly game for the Brewers.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyle Overbay | 0.9 | 0.303 | 0.319 | 1.02 | Buehrle – L | 4.29 | 0.2 |
| Shin-Soo Choo | 0.886 | 0.335 | 0.382 | 1.04 | Corbin – L | 2.48 | 0.191 |
| Adam LaRoche | 0.776 | 0.274 | 0.318 | 1.04 | Rusin – L | 3.06 | 0.188 |
| Paul Konerko | 0.521 | 0.26 | 0.291 | 0.94 | Santana – R | 3.19 | 0.219 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 0.5 | 0.292 | 0.333 | 1.03 | Lynn – R | 3.89 | 0.273 |
| Pablo Sandoval | 0.986 | 0.289 | 0.308 | 1 | Peavy – R | 4.41 | 0.268 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | 0.666 | 0.288 | 0.3 | 1.04 | Wilson – L | 3.4 | 0.22 |
| Dioner Navarro | 1.842 | 0.285 | 0.385 | 1.04 | Haren – R | 4.79 | 0.252 |
| Ian Kinsler | 0.71 | 0.271 | 0.329 | 1 | Cosart – R | 1.15 | 0.246 |
| Ben Zobrist | 0.69 | 0.302 | 0.331 | 1.09 | Gonzalez – R | 3.84 | 0.289 |
- I am not really sure if I am expecting Lyle Overbay to play tonight, but anything is possible in a doubleheader. He would face Buehrle who he has had 0 success off of and I mean zero. He is 0 for 21 with 9 strikeouts and 0 walks, so nothing he has ever done against Buehrle has worked. Overbay struggles against lefties, so do not even think about it.
- As much as I liked Shin-Soo Choo last night, I hate him tonight. Choo has a .551 OPS against left handers and Corbin has held lefties to a .495 OPS season. When looking for an upside position, Choo against a left hander is not what you want especially when he is struggling to hit right handers as well.
- When I pick Adam LaRoche I am basically hunting for that homer and nothing else. I am not a big fan of his tonight as he struggles against left handers only hitting 3 homers on the season and Rusin has actually been somewhat of an effective pitcher not allowing any lefty to hit a homer off of him this year, and holding them to a .555 OPS. Rusin could be a sneaky value play as the Nationals really suck against left handed pitching.
- Paul Konerko is very cold, is struggling against right handers, and is facing a Kansas City pitching staff which has been dominant in their resurgence this year. I do not see why you would want to take Konerko here even if Santana has given up 11 homers to right handers, as Konerko hitting one out in Kauffman tonight is a real unlikely occurance.
- Aramis Ramirez hit a home run last night but even then his last 7 days OPS is still .500. Lynn is hard to figure out but is usually good at holding right handers to meager results. Right handers are only hitting .641 against Lynn this year and with most of the right handed bats in the Brewers lineup pretty bad, Lynn could be a top option today.
- Until Pablo sandoval can prove to me that he can hit home runs again, I am not going to be picking him for daily fantasy. Due to his recent hot streak, he is still hitting at a decent clip, however his home run and slugging totals are way down. He faces Peavy tonight who should be glad he gets to pitch in AT&T which is really hard to hit in. This is one of the weirdest power droughts for a so called power hitter.
- I am not a big fan of Asdrubal Cabrera tonight against CJ Wilson, as Wilson has been good lately and Cabrera has been bad. In fact, aside from his recent couple of hits, Cabrera went through 6 games without recording a hit and has a miserable .196 average post all star break. Cabrera is also hitting only .220 with a .585 OPS against lefties and is 3 for 17 against Wilson lifetime. This is a pass.
- Dioner Navarro has been one of the best random GPP plays of the year posting monster games when you least expect it. Tonight I would not chase that though. For how much I have talked bad about Haren, he does have 5 straight games with 2 or less ER, and has actually been pitching well lately. Navarro has done most of his work off left handers, leaving himself to post a .784 OPS against right handers opposed to a 1.165 against lefties. Navarro also is 1 for 17 against Haren in their careers.
- While I touted the Rangers last night and they blew up for 14 runs, I would recommend against them tonight. There are much better options to stack, as the opposing pitcher Cosart has actually been effective at limiting teams this year with his impressive 1.15 ERA. Kinsler struggles against right handers this year to hit for average and I would just exercise caution as Cosart has gone 6 starts without allowing over 2 runs.
- Ben Zobrist has been struggling a bit after smashing 2 homers against Seattle on the 13th. He hasn’t scored a run in 5 games and has only 2 hits in that span. He is also 0 for 13 against Miguel Gonzalez and even though he hits righties better than left I would look elsewhere for 2b production tonight.