Today's Hitter Breakdown: June 20th

by Jon Schiller (Varncass) Last Updated 2013-06-20 17:30:18

Sorry for not getting an article up yesterday, was feeling a bit under the weather. It is a Thursday, and we do have a split slate, so enjoy the daytime baseball while you can. I am not really seeing anything too terrible for weather so most games are looking like a go at this point.

Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.

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Today’s Hitters to Target

• Victor Martinez comes into this game having one of the worst offensive seasons of his career so far. I am more inclined to think he will surge to his career averages, so I am not too concerned about his bad start, but more happy about his cheap salary everywhere. Victor is hitting right handers well this year and has beaten up Lackey in the past going 10 for 21 in their history.

• Jose Alvarez looked great in his first MLB start, but his numbers in the minors were nowhere near how well he pitched last time. Jonny Gomes is a lefty killer and if he plays I think he could pose some big issues for the rookie as Gomes has 2 homers in his last 4 games and is hitting really well right now.

• I am a big fan of the Reds in this game, and a huge fan of Shin-Soo Choo. I think Choo could have a monster game against Brandon Cumpton. Even though he has not been hitting well lately, the matchup is there for him to have a huge game as he is against a bad right hander and is at home.

• If Choo is going to have a big game, you might as well stack him up with Votto and Jay Bruce. Bruce is really starting to heat up and has 4 homers in his last 6 games. When Bruce is catching fire, everything is flying out of the park and thats what seems to be happening right now. Continue to roll with him and you won’t be disappointed.

• Garrett Jones has been cold lately but he is one of those guys who can have a big game out of nowhere. He always has nice power, and hitting against a right hander in Great American is nice for him. The good thing is that he is most likely super cheap on every site, so if you want to roll with his upside you can play a stud or two. His BVP is not too shabby either, going 10 for 33 against Bailey in their careers.

• I continue to use Brandon Moss during his hot streak as I am looking for that decently priced guy who can bring 2 homer power. Moss certainly fits that bill and with the A’s scoring a bunch of runs lately, Moss makes a solid play. He gets to face Josh Lindblom who has not exactly shut down his opponents, in fact, he is allowing a .904 OPS against left handers. In hitter friendly Rangers Ballpark, I love Moss tonight.

• I am still not giving up on Dayan Viciedo, and I still like to use him every time he faces a left hander. Viciedo is going to pay off greatly when he starts mashing left handers like usual, and today could be that day. Although Diamond has been ok against left handers, he has not been good overall so I think Viciedo could have a chance to do some nice damage even in the pathetic White Sox lineup.

• Will Middlebrooks is an interesting option that not many may think about tonight at 3rd. He gets to face Alvarez just like Gomes and could really pay off his salary if Alvarez struggles in this game like I think is possible. Middlebrooks has shown his potential with the 3 HR game he had earlier, and has always hit lefties better than righties.

• With so many games at the over under 7 mark, the Rangers/Athletics game at 10 is looking like the most stackable game. If you do decide to go that route, do not forget Ian Kinsler, who should have a solid game against Griffin. Kinsler is a reverse splits man and hits right handers better than left, with all 7 of his homers coming off of righties, and Griffin is also a reverse splits guy, giving up 100 points of OPS better against right handers than left. Kinsler is my favorite play at 2nd today.

• I am using a lot of guys who have been struggling, but the shortstop pool is really bad today. Andrelton Simmons looks like one of the better options, especially considering his price. The Braves could do some damage against Niese and Simmons will most likely be hitting at the top of the lineup, so in a day bereft of shortstop options, he does not look like a bad play.

Today’s Hitters to Avoid

• I am a huge fan of Evan Longoria, but when you are 2 for 21 against a pitcher with 11 strikeouts, it tells me that something is a bit off. Longoria has been solid lately and for the season, but I am going to fade him tonight, as I am expecting Pettitte to get it together and pitch a solid game in Yankee Stadium.

• Josh Hamilton made a really sexy pick the last couple of days, but after disappointing (yet again), he has to face King Felix today, who he owns a career 8 for 51 off of with 16 strikeouts. I just am not going to fall into the trap of using him again and being disappointed.

• David Wright has been really solid in the last week but the one thing that he has not been solid at is hitting left handed pitching. He only has 1 homer and is hitting at a .781 OPS against lefties which is way down from his right handed OPS. He has really struggled as well against Minor in his career going 2 for 17 with 7 strikeouts and a .473 OPS. It just does not look like a good spot for David today.

• Andre Ethier is finally looking like he is hitting batter lately, but he will hit a wall tonight. Jason Marquis has been incredible in this season, and has really been shutting everyone down in his last few starts. Not only that, but Ethier is a measley 3 for 31 in their histories together, and that is from when Marquis was terrible. I would avoid this at all costs.

• Not even Starlin Castro looks like a solid prospect for the Cubs anymore. It just keeps getting worse for the northsiders, and Castro’s bat hitting the pits is not good. Castro is a popular play over DFS due to his potential and low salary, but I would rather be on Simmons today, especially against the high strikeout potential of Lance Lynn.

• Colorado is really going to have a litmus test in the next couple of weeks as they play away from Coors against some solid teams. Tonight they are playing in one of the lowest over/under games of the night and I do not like most of the Rockies inflated salaries tonight, Wilin Rosario especially. He has had some success against right handers but generally plays much better against lefties, and Jordan Zimmermann has been really solid this year.

• Who are these Yankees that are hitting nowadays? Not even Ichiro Suzuki is the same guy that he used to be. Matt Moore has really struggled lately, but is he is going to turn it around it will be against the aging Yankees bats. Ichiro just does not bring to the table his previous upside, and I do not like him as a fantasy asset anymore.

• Jose Altuve has a knack for hitting above .300, but even then he does not bring much power to the table. He has struggled in his career against Gallardo going 3 for 15 with a .400 OPS, and has really struggled of late posting a .444 OPS in the last week. I like multiple people at 2nd over him today.

• Matt Holliday is a slugger who has been under the radar this year, continuing his solid career but not making much noise in terms of news. I do not like him today against Feldman, only because it is in Busch Stadium, he is pretty expensive, and Feldman has been decent this year. Holliday is a good hitter but I do not think he homers today.

• If I am avoiding Ethier, I might as well try to stay away from Adrian Gonzalez as well. Gonzalez has been really cold the last week, and his career left/right splits are reverse. Jason Marquis is really having a solid season and it appears that he has figured out how to pitch, so in this Dodgers lineup that sometimes forgets how to score runs, tonight may be bad for them.