Today's Hitter Breakdown: September 27th
The last series of the baseball season are finishing up this weekend. Headlining the series drama has to be the Reds/Pirates series so definitely one to keep an eye on there. Get your lineups in tonight and tomorrow as there might not be as much action to be had as baseball will be overshadowed by football on Sunday. Anyways, let’s get to who I like on the eve of the penultimate day of baseball.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 1.461 | 0.37 | 0.349 | 1.09 | Feldman – R | 3.51 | 0.292 |
| Evan Longoria | 0.96 | 0.31 | 0.359 | 1.08 | Dickey – R | 4.27 | 0.225 |
| Andy Dirks | 0.977 | 0.301 | 0.309 | 0.95 | Koehler – R | 4.45 | 0.264 |
| Ian Kinsler | 1.007 | 0.288 | 0.334 | 0.99 | Wilson – L | 3.36 | 0.311 |
| Alexei Ramirez | 0.399 | 0.307 | 0.298 | 0.92 | Shields – R | 3.21 | 0.283 |
| Eric Young Jr | 0.802 | 0.304 | 0.292 | 0.89 | Gallardo – R | 4.23 | 0.247 |
| Yadier Molina | 0.741 | 0.333 | 0.358 | 0.91 | Wood – L | 2.98 | 0.333 |
| Yan Gomes | 0.956 | 0.343 | 0.365 | 0.99 | Hernandez – L | 6.05 | 0.32 |
| Ryan Raburn | 0.58 | 0.31 | 0.397 | 0.99 | Hernandez – L | 6.05 | 0.314 |
| Joey Votto | 0.865 | 0.359 | 0.4 | 1.03 | Burnett – R | 3.39 | 0.331 |
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia has a solid spot tonight to produce as he is on fire right now. He has a 9 game hitting streak going and is doing more than just hitting singles in that time. He has homered before off Feldman and is hitting in Camden which has been very friendly to lefties this year, along with Salty hitting as a lefty against righties to a .870 OPS and 12 of his 14 homers. Get him in your lineup if he starts.
- Isn’t this about the time that Evan Longoria starts to heat up? Well he is locked in right now with multi hit games in his last 3 games. He won’t be cheap for much longer as he tries to drag the Rays forward into a playoff spot. Longo does his best work when the playoffs are on the line and I am not going to doubt him in these last few games.
- Someone had to be the team that plays the random end of season interleague matchup, and the Tigers drew that straw. It just seems so strange as these teams hardly meet and there really is nothing to go off of. The Tigers still have home field advantage to play for as they are a game behind Oakland for the 2nd spot in the American League and will not be giving up. Dirks hits right handers well and usually does well against guys he is seeing for the first time.
- Pumping the Rangers, Rays, and Indians these last few days has worked, and I am going to do it again. All 3 are playing like teams who cannot afford to lose, which is true. Ian Kinsler is hitting lefties for a high average and a .826 OPS this year, is 8 for 16 with a 1.516 OPS off Wilson in their careers and wants to atone for his multiple errors last game. He is hot and I think he produces tonight.
- I have voiced my dislike of Alexei Ramirez as a fantasy option multiple times but I am going to recommend him here. If you are taking studs everywhere tonight he is a good penny pinching option with his 16 for 39 history with 2 homers off of Shields. For some reason, Ramirez can just hit shields very well as all of his numbers are up on him. Ramirez is cheap and in a punt position and makes a nice filler play if the White Sox don’t rest him.
- This is a very interesting spot to exploit in my opinion. Eric Young is tied at the top of the stolen base leaders for the year with Jean Segura, now he definitely wants to win that title so he is going to be stealing when he gets on. He faces a righty who doesn’t generally allow a ton of steals, but only catches potential stealers about 33% of the time. It is a bit of a higher risk play, but if he gets on I can almost guarantee he will be going.
- Yadier Molina is a very safe catcher play tonight if you do not like Salty. Yadi is a very good double up play as you can almost guarantee he is going to get a hit or so and he bats in the middle of a potent lineup so RBIs are plentiful. His matchup is good as well as he faces Travis Wood who has not been as good against righties as he has against lefties.
- If you ignored by play on Yan Gomes last night, that is ok, you can still get in on him tonight. He is raking against left handed pitching with a .935 OPS, and his opponent is homer happy and is allowing a 1.001 OPS to right handers. This is an absurd spot as Hernandez is just horrid this year against right handers and Gomes is poised to jack another one out of the park tonight.
- As much as I really think bad about Ryan Raburn, I cannot ignore the numbers tonight. His wOBA is impressive on the year, he is obliterating left handed pitching with 7 homers in only 102 at bats for a 1.049 OPS, he is going to be cheap, and as noted above, Hernandez just loves giving up dongs to right handed batters. Do not try to fade these guys tonight.
- Well isn’t this fun, a season ending series between 2 teams fighting for home field in the Wild Card game. This should be a very entertaining series how each team approaches it. Votto is struggling a bit right now and his price is not very high, but he is a stud hitter and knows how to get walks. I am not sure how I feel about Burnett at Great American even thought he has been the ace for the Pirates. Votto really does well against right handed pitching and I think he comes through tonight.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Markakis | 0.674 | 0.29 | 0.303 | 1.09 | Buchholz – R | 1.6 | 0.271 |
| Brett Lawrie | 0.405 | 0.272 | 0.304 | 1.08 | Hellickson – R | 5.16 | 0.26 |
| Desmond Jennings | 1.965 | 0.296 | 0.33 | 1.08 | Dickey – R | 4.27 | 0.231 |
| Pedro Alvarez | 0.64 | 0.275 | 0.323 | 1.03 | Bailey – R | 3.4 | 0.245 |
| Freddie Freeman | 1.593 | 0.367 | 0.388 | 1.03 | Lee – L | 2.93 | 0.29 |
| Mike Moustakas | 0.453 | 0.259 | 0.284 | 1.01 | Sale – L | 2.97 | 0.198 |
| Michael Cuddyer | 1.121 | 0.385 | 0.401 | 0.92 | Kershaw – L | 1.88 | 0.286 |
| Matt Kemp | 0.85 | 0.361 | 0.319 | 0.92 | McHugh – R | 8.59 | 0.255 |
| Jed Lowrie | 1.052 | 0.316 | 0.344 | 0.94 | Hernandez – R | 2.99 | 0.279 |
| Kendrys Morales | 0.619 | 0.312 | 0.341 | 0.94 | Colon – R | 2.64 | 0.276 |
- Nick Markakis is on a hit streak, but his OPS during the hit streak is still small because he really isn’t doing much with his hits. I do not like him tonight as he is 5 for 34 against Buchholz and Buchholz has shown no weakness this year. The Orioles morale is low and I cannot see them winning very often in this spot.
- Brett Lawrie is really struggling lately and is having problems doing anything positive in the Blue Jays minor league lineup. Lawrie is 1 for 19 against Hellickson in their careers so prior history is not giving us any confidence here. I am not inclined to use Lawrie in this spot as his upside seems very low.
- I am not really thinking that Desmond Jennings will play tonight but if he does, I would not use him. He is banged up and his hamstring is causing him issues running. He cannot hit righties this year hitting them at a .698 OPS and against Dickey previously he has gone 1 for 16 with 6 strikeouts. I would just pass on this and do not even pre-contemplate using him.
- Yes, Pedro Alvarez homers all come against right handed pitching, and yes, he has homered off Bailey before, but overall he is 2 for 17 with 8 strikeouts. Bailey has been very solid this year and I am convinced that he can shut Alvarez and the Pirates down. Alvarez has slowed the homer train a bit recently and it is just too big of a strikeout risk for me to consider tonight on sites that subtract for K’s.
- I was really high on Freddie Freeman last night and he came through. Tonight, not so much as he has to face Cliff Lee who is always dominant against left handed batters. Freeman is only 7 for 30 with 10 strikeouts against Lee. You pretty much know what you are going to get out of Cliff Lee when he pitches, and I do not relish taking batters against him, I would rather avoid them.
- This is a terrible spot for Mike Moustakas. He is really struggling lately, and only has 5 hits in the last week, he struggles against left handers with a .551 OPS and he faces Sale who has given up a .354 OPS to left handers throughout this season. Oh, and he is 4 for 20 with 7 strikeouts against Sale. Can you see anything good happening here?
- Clayton Kershaw 1.88 ERA is absolutely awesome. He has been totally dominant this entire year against both lefties and righties. He gets to pitch at home against a Colorado offense that does not look very intimidating. Although Cuddyer is one of the best hitters this year, he does most of his damage against right handers and most of it in Coors Field neither of which is the case here, plus he is against Kershaw. Avoid.
- Collin McHugh has been horrid this year, but 3 of his starts came in Coors Field but he did manage to hold down the Cardinals for one of those starts. The potential is there and I think in Dodger Stadium he may have a bit more confidence that he will not give up the long ball. I just am not a fan of Matt Kemp against right handed pitchers, and McHugh has been worse against lefties than righties, so I am taking a shot on fading Kemp tonight.
- I am hoping that Felix Hernandez can get it done tonight against the Athletics and put a dent in their confidence before the ALDS as they scare me more than any other team in the American League. (If you can’t tell, I’m a Tigers fan.) I am fading Lowrie tonight as well as who would have thought King Felix would be the Mariners 2nd best pitcher to Iwakuma? Hernandez has not been going deep into games lately andh as been struggling but when he is on he is on, and he has been on against Lowrie in the past holding him to 2 for 15 with 6 strikeouts.
- Kendrys Morales has a poor matchup as well against Colon, as Colon has actually been better than Hernandez on the year as well. Colon’s last 5 games are very impressive although the A’s usually pull him after 5 or 6 innings. Morales is 2 for 18 off Colon in the past and Morales as a switch hitter this year has hit better against left handers.