Top College Plays: Week 10
Welcome to CFB Week 10’s edition of Top College Plays. I’m going to break things down by the early-game slate and the late-game slate.
There are only minor differences between the sites’ game sets this week. In the early slate, FD has included Texas State/N. Mexico State, while DraftKings has included UCF/UCONN, and UH/South Florida. The late slates are the same, except that FD included UAB/Florida Atlantic, and Southern Miss./UTEP. I’ll analyze the games with the highest projected Vegas totals and then list some other green lights play from the games I didn’t analyze.
This week there are only three Vegas totals at or near 70 so I’ll hit on those three and then break down the individual green lights.
| Traffic Light | What It Means | |
|---|---|---|
 | Green Light | All systems go. Target player in your lineups |
 | Yellow Light | Indifferent. Player could go either way |
 | Red Light | Avoid the given player at all costs |
Early Slate – FD & DK
UNC at Miami (-14.5, 69)
This line started at Miami -17 so Vegas money is predicting that UNC will keep this one somewhat competitive. Miami has been solid defensively this year, as they are 50th in rush defense allowing 147 YPG and 3.61 YPC, and 8th in pass defense allowing only 171 YPG. However, Marquise Williams has been on absolute tear. He’s had at least 300 yards and three TDs in three straight games, including rushing TDs in each. If you want to continue to ride his recent play, I think it’s a solid play. Outside of him, though, I’d avoid the rest of the UNC offense, as they spread the ball around to all of their WR and RB.
The primary targets in this game should be Miami players, as they are projected to score over 40 points against a terrible UNC defense. UNC is 107th against the run allowing 4.67 YPC, and 116th against the pass allowing 302 YPG. The top target is Miami RB, Duke Johnson. Due to his huge game last week, Duke is priced just below the top tier of Ameer Abdullah, Melvin Gordon, and Javorious Allen. I think his price could limit his ownership so he makes a nice GPP play as he has similar upside IF he gets the volume he did against Virginia Tech. He’s averaging 7.5 YPC this year, is a solid receiver out of the backfield, and has only been held down by Miami limiting his touches. Prior to the Virginia Tech game, he was typically getting between 15 to 20 touches a game. However, last Thursday against Virginia Tech, Miami finally fully unleashed him for 29 carries. He responded with 249 yards and one TD, and added another receiving TD. Last year against UNC, he had eight carries for 83 yards before leaving early with an injury. Miami’s backup RB then came on to rush for 137 yards and two TDs. I think the Miami running game will run wild on UNC again this year.
With regard to the Miami passing game, Brad Kaaya is an ok play, if the price is right. He’s a little too expensive on DK and FD for my liking with his passing attempts hovering around only 25 per game in recent weeks. Phillip Dorsett is Miami’s big play WR as he only has 18 receptions on the year, but for 565 yards and six TDs. He’s in play on non PPR sites. The other Miami passing game option to know is TE, Clive Walford (23/306/4), who is one of the top TE plays in the early slate.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Duke Johnson (Miami RB), Phillip Dorsett (Miami WR-non PPR), Marquise Williams (UNC QB), Clive Walford (Miami TE)
Yellow Lights: – Brad Kaaya (Miami QB)
Red Lights: – UNC offense other than Marquise Williams
TCU at West Virginia (+5.5, 74)
TCU is leading the nation in scoring offense averaging 50 PPG. Last week, they poured it on Texas Tech scoring 82 points, as Trevone Boykin threw for 433 yards and seven TDs. FanDuel finally got the memo on Boykin and jumped his price to 9.8k, and he is the highest priced QB on DK. With his price increase and some of the other QBs, particularly Bryce Petty, I’m not as high on Boykin as others in the industry. I don’t think he is a bad play by any means, and will own him in some spots, but right now I lean to Bryce Petty as my top early QB.
West Virginia has been an average defense so far his year. They are 54th in pass defense allowing 218 YPG, and 74th against the run allowing 4.49 YPC. They have been better in recent weeks, holding Baylor to 27 points, and Oklahoma State to 10 points. TCU’s top WR, Josh Doctson (35/573/7), left the Tech game in the 3rd quarter with an ankle sprain, but he is expected to play this week. It’s a situation to monitor though, as it was initially thought to be a high ankle sprain, and college coaches sometimes play games with injuries. If he is out then you should bump up Kolby Listenbee (22/494/3) and Deante Gray (23/431/6). Trevone Boykin actually leads TCU in carries so TCU’s top RB, BJ Catalon, is very TD dependent, as he averages only 10 or so carries per game.
West Virginia has become increasingly run heavy as the year has progressed, and now have 361 rushing attempts to 325 passing attempts. West Virginia QB, Clint Trickett, has been ok this year and has some very talented WRs, but I’m not interested at his high price points. Kevin White (72/1047/8) is always a “green light” as he’s one of the best WRs in the country. It’s just a matter of whether you want to pay his high tag against TCU. Personally, I probably won’t be as I’m leery of Gary Patterson’s defensive mind scheming away White. However, TCU has been vulnerable against the pass this year as they are only 72nd in the country so there is some merit to rolling him out there. Mario Alford (45/600/6) took advantage of Oklahoma State focusing on White last week, as he had seven receptions for 136 yards and one TD. If TCU does the same, then Alford could have another nice game. He’s a GPP only play though as he is really boom or bust. TCU is 36th in rush defense allowing only 3.15 YPC. Rushel Shell missed last week’s game with an injury, but is expected to play this week. Shell and Wendell Smallwood will both see some carries, but I’m not interested against TCU’s run defense.
Traffic Light Plays
Green Lights: – Trevone Boykin (TCU QB), Kevin White (WVU WR), Josh Doctson (TCU WR- check health)
Yellow Lights: – BJ Catalon (TCU RB), Mario Alford (WVU WR- GPP), Kolby Listenbee/Deante Gray (TCU WR)
Red Lights: – Clint Trickett (WVU QB), Wendell Smallwood/Rushel Shell (WVU RB)
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Bryce Petty (Kansas) – Petty isn’t cheap as he’s the most expensive QB on FD at 10.1, and 2nd most on DK at 9.6k. I think Trevone Boykin will be the highest owned QB due to the Vegas total, his recent tear, and the fact that Baylor is coming off of a bye and a poor performance. I think it’s a great opportunity to grab Petty at a similar price point to Boykin, at a lower ownership percentage. Baylor is expected to blowout KU and their team total is approaching 50 points (higher than TCU’s). Normally, that might give you a little pause due to the blowout. However, I think Baylor isn’t going to let off in the gas in this one as they are coming off of a loss to West Virginia. More importantly, the playoff rankings just came out, and they are sitting down at 13. With teams now jockeying for the top 4 spots, I think you’ll see some of these teams really lay it on some teams when possible, as evidenced by TCU putting up 82 last week. Kansas is not equipped to handle this Baylor offense. Petty looks good for at least 400 yards and four to five TDs. Last year, he put up 450 total yards of offense and four TDs against KU.
Tyler Jones (Texas State – FD only) – Most people aren’t going to know the Texas State QB, and his recent game logs are not impressive. However, he gets a ton of rushing attempts for a QB, as he’s had at least 17 rushing attempts in five of his seven games. Meanwhile, New Mexico State is dead last in rush defense allowing 6.32 YPC and 331 YPG. I don’t think I trust him in cash games, but he makes for a very nice GPP play.
Texas A&M QB situation – We won’t know until Thursday, but if Kyle Allen is named the starter then he needs to be in a ton of your lineups at minimum price playing Louisiana Monroe. If Hill gets the start, I’m not sure I’m that interested as he’s still pretty highly price. He could be a GPP play depending on whether Allen would still get some snaps. The early though among some of the A&M websites is that Hill may still get the start, but that Allen will get some series, which would make it an avoid situation.
Devin Gardner (Michigan) – This is a GPP play only as it was tough even typing Gardner’s name out. However, he does get Indiana this week. In this matchup last year, the Devin Gardner/Jeremy Gallon combo won people ALL the money last year, as Gardner threw for 500 yards and two TDs, and rushed for 81 yards and three TDs. Gallon threw up 14 receptions for 369 yards and two TDs. Could lightning strike twice with Gardner and Funchess this year? With the way Gardner has been playing probably not. But if you’re running multiple lineups, especially on DK, you could throw him in as a cheap QB2 in a GPP.
Jacoby Brissett/Maty Mauk – I don’t’ love the way either has been playing, but they each get good matchups. I’m mainly interested them in as my 2nd QB on DK where they are cheap and the cap is tight. Brissett has had a string of tough matchups with FSU, Clemson, and Louisville in three of his last four games. He gets a much better matchup this week against Syracuse’s 67th ranked pass defense. Mauk’s been awful and once again didn’t even complete 50% of his passes last week against Vandy. He reached value with a late TD, and gets a favorable matchup against Kentucky. Of the two I prefer Brissett.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Sefo Liufau, Shane Carden
Running Backs
Tevin Coleman – I’m not sure if Michigan has much more fight left in them. Jeremy Langford ran for 177 yards and three TDs last week. If Michigan has rolled over then Coleman will run wild. I like him more as a GPP play, because the Indiana QB situation worries me. They are down to their 2nd string QB, who was really bad last week, so teams can stack the box against them. Also, due to their terrible defense, they often get behind early so game flow can work against him. As a result, he hasn’t gone over 17 carries in any of his last three games.
Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) – Rutgers’ terrible pass defense overshadows the fact that their run defense is also pretty bad. This was showcased last week as Ameer Abdullah ran for 225 yards and three TDs against them. They are now 82nd in rush defense and allow 5.09 YPC. Gordon is averaging three rush TDs per game over his last five.
Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska) – Like Gordon he’s been on a tear and has his sights set on New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. He has 40 fantasy points in four of his last five games, and looks like he could make it five of six against Purdue. Purdue is 78th in rush defense allowing 4.50 YPC and recently gave up 194 rushing yards to David Cobb.
Kevin Parks (Virginia) – Parks came through last week in a great matchup against UNC, and gets another good matchup against Georgia Tech. He’s still at a reasonable salary and Georgia Tech has been uncharacteristically terrible against the run, allowing 5.38 YPC.
James Conner (Pitt) – This is a DK play. Last week, I said he was too cheap at 6k and he paid off his salary with 120 rushing yards and 3 TDs. This week, his price went up but only to 6.6k, which is not enough in my opinion. The one concerning stat from last week was Conner only had 10 carries. However, I think that was due to game flow as Pitt fumbled six times (including one by Conner), and got down 28-0. I think his carries should be back in the 20 range and Duke does not have a good rush defense, as they are 99th in the nation allowing 4.56 YPC and 193 YPG. In this matchup last year, he had 26 carries for 173 yards and one TD.
Robert Lowe (Texas State – FD Only) – New Mexico State is dead last in rush defense allowing 6.32 YPC and 331 YPG. Lowe had been limited by injury, but looked like he was fully healthy last week with 17 carries for 91 yards and two TDs.
Javorius Allen (USC) – The TDs have gone elsewhere the past two weeks, but this looks like a great bounce back spot. Unlike most RBs, he gets it done on the ground and in the receiving game, and Washington State is just an all-around bad defense.
Shock Linwood (Baylor) – I’m expecting Baylor to put up a big number on Saturday, and all the TDs won’t come through the air. Kansas is 84th against the run allowing 4.8 YPC.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Boyd (Pitt) – I like him at only 5.8k on DK. He hasn’t had that huge breakout game like we saw last year, but he is showing some signs of life with 9 receptions for 137 yards last week. The week prior he also had 20 fantasy points. He had a great game against Duke last year with eight receptions for 154 yards and three TDs.
Antwan Goodley/Corey Coleman (Baylor) – I love Bryce Petty this week so I’m definitely on board with his top two WRs. Coleman has at least one receiving TD in every game since he returned from injury, while Goodley has over 100 yards receiving and a TD in three of four games since returning from injury. You could throw in KD Cannon, but I’d only due it in a GPP as he’s now a distant 3rd in the WR pecking order.
Jamison Crowder/Deontay Greenberry (Duke & UH) – Greenberry is only on DK. They’ve been major disappointments this year. However, it’s a tough pricing week, they are both under 5k, and have both shown some signs of life, so I think they are both in play. Pitt does have a top 10 ranked pass defense, but has faced a very weak pass defense schedule to date. Crowder had seven receptions for 143 yards and a TD against Pitt last year. As far as Greenberry goes, he has been better since UH switched QB’s, and USF is 86th in pass defense.
Sterling Shepard (OU) – He’s clearly Knight’s top target and the Iowa State defense has been really bad this year, recently allowing 48 points to a bad Texas offense. However, the Iowa State offense has been improved the past few weeks, and the Oklahoma defense has not lived up to its billing. Iowa State could score enough here to make Oklahoma work, and really let Shepard do some damage.
Speedy Noil (Texas A&M) – I like him as a cheap WR3 on FD. There could be some changes throughout the entire A&M offense following the Alabama debacle. However, I think Noil will still be a focal point as he is one of the building blocks for the future. Prior to the Alabama game, A&M had made it a point to get him the ball as he had 10 receptions against Ole Miss, and also had two TDs against Miss. State the week prior.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Justin Hardy (ECU), Nelson Agholor (USC), Nelson Spruce (Colorado), Devin Funchess (Michigan – GPP only)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – EJ Bibbs (Iowa State), Bucky Hodges (Virginia Tech), Bradley Miller (Texas State-FD only), Jake Duzey (Iowa)
Late Slate – FD & DK
Arizona at UCLA (70.5, -6.5)
This has all the makings of a shootout. We’ve got two good QBs with quality RBs up against bad defenses. Arizona is 120th in the country in pass defense allowing 308 passing YPG, so UCLA QB, Brett Hundley, should see lots of success through the air. He’ll also give you a lot of rushing yards as gets 15+ carries a game and had at least 89 rushing yards in each of his last three games. This is a huge game in the Pac 12 South, and UCLA will be eliminated with a loss, so I expect a big game from Hundley. If you’re looking to pair him up then look to Jordan Payton (47/664/6). Arizona has been solid against the run allowing 3.88 YPC and 139 YPG (40th in the country), but Paul Perkins is really running well. He had 180 rushing yards and two TDs last week, and his been over 150 total yards in three straight games.
UCLA has really struggled on defense this year ranking 107th against the pass and 70th against the run. Normally, it’s the Arizona RB spot that is the target for the Wildcats. However, this year, Anu Solomon, their freshman QB, has taken top billing in recent weeks. He’s coming off of a 294 yard passing game with five TDs, and threw for 395 yards the week prior. His top target is Cayleb Jones (46/670/7). Also, Austin Hill (29/408/4) has continued to heat up as he scored another TD last week. The Arizona RB spot is a mess right now as both Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson are healthy. They split carries last week with TJG getting 13 carries for 107 yards, and Wilson getting 10 carries for 18 yards and a TD. I’ll avoid the situation unless some clarity emerges.
Green Lights: – Anu Solomon (Arizona QB), Cayleb Jones (Arizona WR), Brett Hundley (UCLA QB), Jordan Payton (UCLA WR), Paul Perkins (UCLA RB),
Yellow Lights: – Terris Jones-Grigsby/Nick Jones (Arizona RB), Austin Hill (Arizona WR)
Red Lights: –
Other Green Lights:
Quarterbacks
Sean Mannion (Oregon State) – I don’t like his price on FD and DK, but if he is cheap on other sites, then he’s worth a shot against Cal and their 125th ranked pass defense.
Dak Prescott (Miss State) – He’s pretty much a lock for 300 yards and three TDs each week. He was seen in a walking boot this week, but is expected so be sure to monitor his healthy if you are rolling him out there. If you’re spending at QB, he’s always a great option, and this week is no different against Arkansas.
Zack Greenlee (Fresno State) – He’s not in the FD player pool, but he is available on DK. To be honest with y’all, I know nothing about this kid other than what I was able to google. Here’s what google told me: he’s a redshirt freshman who was a three star recruit out of high school. He hurt his knee early in fall camp and was limited in his ability to compete for the starting job. However, he’s full healthy now and has been improving each week. Now for the real reason he is here: he was just named the new Fresno State starter at QB and is minimum price on DK at 4k. He gets a soft landing spot in his first game against Wyoming who is 94th in pass defense allowing 256 YPG.
JT Barrett (Ohio State) – I had Barrett as one of my top plays, but I just saw that he sprained his MCL. He’s planning to play against Illinois, but you have to think they’ll limit his running opportunities with Michigan State on deck. I think that downgrades him to a GPP only play. The matchup is there however against Illinois’ terrible defense.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Garrett Grayson (Colorado State), Cody Fajardo (Nevada), Everett Gilson (Notre Dame), Tyrone Swoops (Texas)
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot (Ohio State) – Barrett has a sprained MCL so Elliot will probably see a boost in carries. Some might be wary due to David Cobb’s average game last week against Illinois, but that was Minnesota and this is Ohio State. Illinois is still 120th in rush defense allowing 5.15 YPC and 258 YPG, and Elliot just finished rushing for over 100 yards against a top five rush defense in Penn State. Last year, Ohio State ran for 441 yards and 5 TDs against Illinois, and I expect Barrett (provided he’s healthy) and Elliot to do a ton of damage this year. Also, Rod Smith, who sometimes vulture TDs, has been kicked off the team.
Brian Hill (Wyoming) – Hill makes a great under the radar salary relief play at only 5.4k. Wyoming’s top two other RB are now out for the year, leaving all the carries to Hill. He had 28 carries for 121 yards and two TDs last week against Colorado State. This week he gets an awful Fresno State defense that is 113th against the run, allowing 4.46 YPC and 218 YPG.
Devontae Booker (Utah) – Arizona State has been a poor rush defense allowing 4.53 YPC and 180 YPG (86th in the country). Utah has been leaning on Booker for over 25 carries a game and just lost Dres Anderson for the year. He was solid against a talented USC defense, but I don’t think ASU defense slows him down as much this week. In the three weeks prior to USC, he had over 150 rushing yards in each game with seven total rush TDs.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Aaron Jones (UTEP- FD only), Donnell Pumphrey (San Diego State), DJ Foster (Arizona State), Tarean Folston (Notre Dame- value play), Ralph Webb (Vanderbilt – GPP), Malcolm Brown (Texas – GPP)
Wide Receivers
Rashard Higgins (Colorado State) – If you’ve got the salary cap, then he’s once again your top option as he just continues to put up monster numbers.
Tyler Lockett (Kansas State) – Lockett is KSU’s number one WR and is coming off of an eight reception, 103 yard game against a tough Texas defense. He gets an easier matchup this week against Oklahoma State who is 109th in pass defense, allowing 282 YPG. Josh Doctson and Mario Alford have both had big weeks against the Cowboys in the past two weeks. He’s pricey on FD, but is priced at a very manageable 6.3k on DK.
Victor Bolden (Oregon State) – He’s been a disappointment this year, but he makes a nice GPP flier this week. Oregon State’s other WR, Richard Mullaney, is out and Cal has the worst pass defense in the country.
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jaelen Strong (Arizona State), William Fuller (Notre Dame), Ty Montgomery (Stanford), John Harris/Jaxon Shipley (Texas)
Tight Ends
Other Green Lights Not Written Up: – Jarred Gipson (Nevada) Steven Scheu (Vandy), Pharaoh Brown (Oregon), Jeff Heuerman (Ohio State)
Remember that no daily plays column can factor each site’s pricing into account for each individual player, so it is up to you to decide if a player is over or underpriced on your site. This column just gives you an idea of the “playability” of the player in general. If you have a question on a player not listed, feel free to shoot me a question shoot me a message on twitter @SouthwesternAg or leave me a question below and I will do my best to get back to you. Good luck this weekend!