Total Domination: Week 16
A weekly look at games that could exceed or fall short of betting market expectations. Bettors can leverage recommendations at the sportsbook, while DFS players can use the specific player recommendations mentioned to their advantage. Steve Repsold deep dives each recommendation and advises us the level of bet confidence expressed in units (example: 2u = 2 units).
Week 16
As the weeks dwindle down, the betting lines tend to get sharper. This is logical; more data and more tape lead to improved projections. You should adjust your investment accordingly. That is not to say that there aren’t still inefficiencies we can exploit. But I think it’s important and wise to be aware of the declining edge. The edge now comes in exploiting overreactions to the recent data. Information is a dangerous thing.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys Under 48 1.5u
Attacking the Buccaneers defense has been something I’ve chased repeatedly this season – with excellent results – but it’s time to adapt. The over hit for eight of their first ten games. The majority of these were with totals over 50. It was quite a run. But the under has hit in five consecutive and six of the last seven games. These games have not been anywhere close to the total. Tampa Bay games have averaged just under 35 points total in the last seven games, and that’s including the 38-35 barn-burning loss to the Giants.
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