2021 Tour Championship Odds & PGA Golf Betting Picks

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2021-08-31 14:54:24

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting picks for the final round of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the 2021 Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

“And now, the end is near and so I face the final curtain.” A shoehorned reference to “My Way” that could not be more appropriate given the final pair at the BMW Championship and the imminent playing of the Tour Championship. Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay offered a spectacular show for spectators — a styles clash between aggression and precision. In the end, Patrick Cantlay and his putter bested Bryson after a six-hole playoff. Cantlay added a victory, a bunch of money, and a -10 start to his repertoire heading to East Lake Golf Club. Will the bonus strokes be too much to overcome? Let’s start with the field.

Tour Championship Golf Odds

At the time of this writing — morning of August 31st — BetMGM lists the following outright odds.

The thirty-man field is set. Patrick Cantlay comes into the Tour Championship with the most FedEx Cup points and as such, will start the tournament -10. In 2019, the PGA Tour opted to change the format of the final round — starting all of the players with a number of strokes based on how many FedEx Cup points accumulated throughout the year. In the past, total points including those from the final event would be monitored at East Lake to decide the champion. Often, the winner at East Lake Golf Club was not the Tour Champion. To avoid confusion, the PGA Tour moved to this format. The following illustrates the starting score for all thirty players in the field.

Given the starting strokes, the likely Tour Champion seems destined to come from the golfers -5 or better. In 2019, Rory McIlroy finished with the best gross score and overcame a five-stroke deficit to win the Tour Championship. Last year, Dustin Johnson started with the lead and finished with the lead despite a -15 gross performance by Xander Schauffele. The bonus strokes are very important. Most betting sites offer outright odds for the tournament without the bonus strokes. If you are looking to bet a longshot, this format might present better opportunities.

Tour Championship Betting Preview

• Course: East Lake Golf Club
• Date: September 2-5
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,300+
• Greens: Bermuda

Since 2004, East Lake Golf Club hosts the PGA Tour Championship. A Donald Ross design that spans north of 7300 yards, East Lake present a relatively formidable test for the thirty remaining players in the PGA Tour season. Normally, gross winning scores hover between -10 and -13, with only the last two winners playing in the bonus stroke format. The par fives are the easiest two holes on the par-70 golf course. Players will need to take advantage of the eight opportunities for birdies if hoping to win the $15 Million top prize.

As per usual, strokes gained on approach is of paramount importance. East Lake Golf Club features relatively tricky fairways to hold. Therefore, I will be taking a look at fairways gained en lieu of SG: OTT. Putting on Bermuda grass should be factored in as well as, bogey avoidance. That said, with thirty of the world’ best golfers — bonus strokes seem to be the biggest consideration. Here are a few outright betting options that pique my interest at East Lake.

Tour Championship Betting Picks

Cameron Smith +2800 (DraftKings)

Unless you are going to attack the “Without Bonus Strokes” betting markets, Cameron Smith is the shortest set of odds I am willing to consider for this event. Price shopping is of pivotal importance, as many other sites are offering a number closer to 20/1. At 28/1, Cam recently displayed the ability to go extremely low — putting together a phenomenal round at the Northern Trust in Jersey City. Why? With Cam, the putter is the main weapon.

Smith ranks 7th in the field in SG: Putting over his last 24 rounds and 2nd on Bermuda greens. Time and time again, Smith is nails from 15 feet and in. On a course featuring only the two par 5’s, players will need to save par a lot to stay in contention. Like Patrick Cantlay, Smith possesses the ability get very hot with the putter and convert opportunities for a low round. To overcome the stroke disadvantage, someone needs to go low. I am willing to wager 1 unit on Cam doing just that.

Risking 1 unit to Win 28 units

Sam Burns +4000 (BetMGM)

Speaking of a hot putter, Sam Burns comes into the week ranked third in SG: P on Bermuda greens over his last 24 rounds. Burns seems to be the quietest contender in the field — putting together strong performances one after the other. Since the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, Burns boasts four 64s and a 65. The ability to go low was on display over his last three tournaments.

Since a near win earlier in the Tour season, Burns progressed to the point where he was able to capture his first victory at the Valspar. With a reasonably well-rounded game, Burns has enough on approach to create opportunities with a recently strong putter. At 40-1, Burns offers a bit of upside for money invested in a player facing a six-stroke deficit. I am willing to throw a half-unit on Burns putting together a big round to join the leaders.

Risking 0.5 units to Win 20 units

Billy Horschel +30000 (PointsBet)

File this under the unrealistic, mega-longshot category. Billy Horschel starts his bid at East Lake with no strokes under par. Facing a ten-stroke deficit, Horschel will need to put together the tournament of his life to hoist the Tour Championship… again.

Horschel brings just enough seasoning — four trips — to East Lake Golf Club and a resume that suggests he knows how to navigate these waters. Horschel closed the 2014 season with two consecutive victories to win the Tour Championship. Horschel survived the playoffs to make it to the final but will surely come in with an aggressive mindset. Billy, literally, has nothing to lose and will be firing at pins from the jump.

Let’s be honest, we are really, really reaching with this choice. Bankroll management is pretty key as the season concludes. While you might feel compelled to put together a ton of wagers, the bonus strokes will be a very tricky hill to climb if you are scrapping the bottom of the barrel like I have with this pick. For that reason, I am willing to put a quarter-unit on Horschel’s experience, but not a cent more. Instead, keep plenty of money in your bankroll for the NFL season and the upcoming Tour fall season by keeping the card very tight this week.

Risking .25 units to Win 75 units

Thanks for reading throughout the PGA Tour season. As we transition to NFL, look for content on primetime games, spreads, and player props. We will pick up golf again as the mini-season heats up in the fall. Until then, good luck with all of your bets.

Image Credit: Imagn