Trading Paint: Darlington NASCAR DFS Picks
This week drivers roll into the Lady in Black. The intermediate oval at Darlington is no stranger to thrills as the Lady in Black will take her victims. At 1.36 miles and an average of 24-degree banking in the turns, we would like to compare it to other intermediate tracks, but the banking is a lot higher. Darlington is extremely fast and dangerous, only the lucky will survive the Lady in Black.
Here is our version of a Daily Fantasy NASCAR Grind Down.
$10,000 Tier
I let Wheels take the bottom barrel picks this week. The 10k tier is stacked and honestly you will probably have to splurge for one of these guys to take down a GPP. The top driver in this tier has been the hottest driver on the circuit, Kyle Busch. Busch has a win here but also has the longest active top 10 streak. I will have a big dose of Kyle in all my contests. Kevin Harvick comes in at number two and rightfully so. Harvick also has a win here and an average finish of 7.9 over the last 3 years. With Harvick history never seems to matter, Stewart-Haas racing has figured out there Hendrick engines and look as dominant as ever. Joey Logano comes in next which seems inflated to me. Yeah, he has been pretty good the past couple of weeks, but he really hasn’t been good at the Lady in Black. Logano has an average finish of 23rd over the last 5 years, this scares me, but if you are stuck on present form he makes for a great GPP flyer. This tier is rounded out by Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski. Out of these three guys Kenseth is my favorite. Matt has a win at Darlington and an average finish of 3.9 over the last 3 years. In all honesty, other than Kyle and Kevin I like the 9k plays a lot better.
Top Pick – Kyle Busch
$9,000 Tier
The 9k tier starts with Carl Edwards. Edwards has run 4.1 percent of the fastest laps at Darlington over the past 10 years. He also has 3 top 10s in the last 4 races at the Lady in Black. Carl loves this track and has been good enough lately to make some noise. Denny Hamlin is up next. Hamlin has a driver rating of 107 at Darlington and an average finish of 6.8 at this track. I like both JGR drivers this week and will have exposure to both of them. Rounding out this tier is Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr. I would love to tell you that Jimmie is the play this week and with a driver rating of 106 he may just be. However, Hendrick worries me and doesn’t seem to have it together as of late. If anyone can right the ship it is the #48, so I will have to have JJ in some GPP lines. Truex Jr. has had a great 2015, he has also fastest laps (127) and led laps (97) at Darlington. I would rather pay up for the JGR guys then take a flyer on Truex this week.
Top Pick – Denny Hamlin
$8,000 Tier
This is the tier of Hendrick as Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kasey Kahne are all in this tier. Out of the Hendricks guys I really like Jeff Gordon. Gordon has the highest driver rating of 112 at Darlington. He has also led 211 laps at this track. Gordon will want to go out of this season with a bang and Darlington gives him the opportunity. Junior and Kahne also have pretty stout driver ratings with 94 and 97 respectively. Darlington fits Juniors driving style and out of the two that’s who I am rolling with. Larson and Bowyer round out this tier, with Larson being the most expensive. In Larson’s one race here he has an 8th place finish. Like Kyle Busch, this track fits Larson’s style and he should put together a nice performance.
Top Pick – Jeff Gordon
$7,000 Tier
This is Wheels, coming back at ya again to trade some paint with the Tobinator. That week off from racing sure did feel like an entire offseason; I don’t know about ya’ll but I am ready to drop the Green flag and get back to racing! But first let’s take a look into the value plays for this week as we all fight over that $100,000 first prize over at DraftKings. In this tier, we get a dozen of drivers to choose from but I am only finding 5 drivers that I may be able to put my hard earned money on for Sunday. Ryan Newman easily tops this list and until they raise his price again I can honestly say you can play him at any track at this price point without even seeing a single lap run from him. But Newman does have the numbers to back it all up at Darlington – finishing in the top 10 in 11 of his 17 races here, including 7 top 5’s and an average finishing position of 12th (which tops this group). Jamie McMurray is a guy that much like Newman, goes under the radar far too often. McMurray hasn’t jumped off the charts with his track history but has found the top 5 in 3 of his 14 career starts at Darlington. I would feel much more comfortable taking Newman over McMurray if all things were equal, but with McMurray 27th after the first practice I am banking on a nice place differential starting position to be able to play him. Anything inside the top 15 may make him a no touch this week. Greg Biffle and I have a love-hate relationship when it comes to DFS. I find myself either really liking the BIFF or really hating him heading into each race. This week happens to be a week that the stars may be aligning to make him a very intriguing cheap play at $7,400. Biffle is the only driver in this tier to win at Darlington and not just once, but twice. He has held an average finishing position of 13th, right behind Newman and has led the most laps of the tier with 718 career laps led. I know, I know… this is 2015 and Roush hasn’t been good for some time now – But I am not backing off the BIFF this week after seeing these numbers and then watching them unload his #16 Roush Ford and taking straight to the top of the charts and making it stick all session. My only worry though of course, is that he qualifies too high and makes him hard to touch. David Ragan only has a single top 5 in his 8 career Darlington races and isn’t highly recommended by any means – But it seems like Ragan has found a way to get his car inside the top 10 race after race and while the finishing positions don’t work out in his favor, it has caught my attention just enough to recommend him as a high risk, high reward driver this week. Closing out this tier would be another high risk, high reward driver with Austin Dillon. Dillon already picked up his Darlington Stripe early on in first practice and nearly had to bring out the backup car. This track suites Dillon quite well with his aggression, but can also get him in trouble very quick.
Top Pick – Ryan Newman
$6,000 Tier
This tier is very dicey as its full of drivers with minimal to no experience and this isn’t a track that is forgiving to the inexperienced. The tier only has a combined 6 starts and 3 of those came from Sam Hornish Jr. However, Hornish Jr. has not made the most of his 3 starts though as he holds an average finishing position of 33rd. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has 2 starts under his belt and has a respectable 19th average finishing position – considering his price tag at least. If Stenhouse can qualify on the outside of the top 27 or so, he may be a sneaky play this race. Justin Allgaier is the only other driver in this tier that has made a start at Darlington and he started 24th and finished 23rd which is for $500 less than Stenhouse Jr. could be worth rolling the dice with if you’re in need of some punt plays to fit the other 5 drivers that you just can’t leave out of you lineup. Chase Elliot should be an interesting punt this race driver the # 25 Napa Chevrolet for Hendrick as he continues to get his feet wet ahead of hopping into Jeff Gordons shoes next year. Elliot is a very talented driver and I have no problem risking a couple bucks to try and win myself the $100,000 but the odds are against him.
Top Pick – Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
$5,000 Tier
The bottom of the barrel tier; not much going on here but if the cards fall right with qualifying I do see maybe two different drivers that I could see myself throwing darts with to fit an extra elite driver into my lineup with. Landon Cassill is actually pretty intriguing to me at $5,300, but every time I think he is a value play heading into the weekend he goes out and qualifies too well! Cassill has 4 races under his belt at Darlington with a respectable 27.5 average finishing position and I think he has been improving as a driver every week. Travis Kvapil would be my other dart that I would look to play this race. Kvapil is the only driver that has a top 10 Darlington finish under belt from this tier. Of course that helps his average finishing position which comes in at a tier best of 26.6th. The only thing left now is to wait and see how qualifying turns out to see where these potential value plays fall.
Top Pick – Landon Cassill