Trading Paint: Pure Michigan 400 NASCAR Picks
This week we are back at Michigan for the second and final race of the year. The spring race was rain-shortened and a DFS nightmare. This week we should get a full race, but we may see some engine issues as a lot of drivers are complaining about setup. Michigan is 2 miles long and is classified as a Super Speedway. You will need a combination of fast laps, lead laps, and place differential to take down a GPP this week.
Here is our version of a Daily Fantasy NASCAR Grind Down.
$10,000 Tier
Wheels gets to dig through the bottom tier data this week. DraftKings has made this easy for me. In the top tier, they only put two drivers, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Let me make this clear, play them both… moving on. Just kidding, let me give you some stats to back this up. Harvick will cost you top dollar, but has won at Michigan in the past. He qualified in seventh, which gives you room for positive place differential. He also produced the top speed in second practice (194.784 mph) and the top ten consecutive lap average (193.296). He has been in the hunt every week and is looking to finally get back in victory lane. I love where he sets up. Kyle is really in the same boat as Happy. He has been the best driver on the circuit for the last two months. He qualified in sixth which gives him a quicker route to the front. He has also produced top ten speeds/times in both practices. I don’t think you can go wrong with either driver this week. Top Pick – Kevin Harvick ($10,600)
$9,000 Tier
This tier is full of plays this week. Sitting up top is Kurt Busch, the spring winner at this race. Remember that race was rain shortened, but Kurt had strung together some nice performances prior to that race. He has two wins at Michigan since 2005 and has led 330 laps. He will have the equipment to make him a strong play. Jimmie Johnson drops in next at $9,700. Johnson has the most fast laps and lead laps at this track, as well as a 101.2 driver rating at this track. It doesn’t hurt that he will be iced out in Hendrick equipment. Matt Kenseth is the pole sitter this week. He has the second-best driver rating at Michigan with a 102. Since 2005, Kenseth has an average finish of 11.2 at the track. Kenseth has also looked strong in practice, posting a thi3rd place speed in second practice. Kenseth may stay in clean air and lead a lot of laps. Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Carl Edwards round out this tier. Honestly, I have a little love for each one of them. Truex has been great this year and qualified in 22nd, which makes him a definite place differential play. The two Penske guys are both in the top 10 for average finish at this track in recent years. Junior (GOAT) has always used Michigan as a place to get his season back on track. He has two wins since 2005 and has posted a top ten time in first practice. Edwards has qualified in the top five and has two wins here. He should put together a strong performance this weekend. Top Pick – Matt Kenseth ($9,900)
$8,000 Tier
This tier has four drivers Jeff Gordon, Denny Hamlin, Kasey Kahne, and Kyle Larson. Usually, I would harp on how this is the week that Gordon wins, due to his three wins and 27 top 10s, but… I won’t do that this week. Gordon will set up nicely for some place differential points, but the favorite in this tier has to be Kyle Larson. Larson qualified in the 34th position and produced the third fastest time in the second practice. Barring any major setback, Larson should easily be a top 20 play. Out of the Hamlin and Kahne choice, Hamlin is my favorite He qualified in second and has two wins at Michigan since 2005. He has an average finish of 14.7 and will be in the hunt for lead laps and fast laps. Top Pick – Kyle Larson ($8,800)
$7,000 Tier
Tobes let me run with the easy tiers last week in my debut; this week I get to get my hands dirty and bring you some value picks for this race. This tier is surprisingly full of big names and will be very important to get right this weekend because this tier will win and lose many, many lineups. Just like last weekend, Jamie McMurray tops this tier in terms of salary but don’t let that fool you. McMurray got the absolute best finish possible during the last Michigan trip but was a result of playing the rain just right as he finished seventh but only ran 22 laps inside the top 15 all race. Paul Menard who finished in eighth place behind McMurray last visit actually has a very strong Michigan resume on his hands and has now quietly finished in the top 10 in 4 of the last five races here. Clint Bowyer is riding a streak of nine straight top tens at Michigan and last trip here he had a +22 place differential to go along with his top ten. Amidst all of the MWR 2016 talk, Bowyer has rattled off three consecutive top tens heading into this race as well. Look for Bowyer to be a very popular cheap play this week (fade wisely – don’t highly recommend!). Casey Mears races for one reason and one reason only – DFS Value! Mears is always a highly playable driver that helps you get the elite drivers into your lineup week in and week out and that doesn’t change in Michigan; just comes down to a matter of place differential potential. This has arguably been Greg Biffle’s best track historically over the years. We all know that the success from the past hasn’t carried over the last couple of years though, so we all have expected his salary to be cheap – but not THIS cheap, definitely worth a flier! Last but definitely not least in this tier is Ryan Newman at $7,100. That is not a typo! At his price point you can almost throw all history and numbers out the window to take a flier on Mr. consistent! But let’s talk numbers on Newman – Average Finish of 17th; but hidden in that average are two wins and seven top ten finishes over his 28 Michigan starts. Top Pick – Paul Menard ($7,800)
$5,000 Tier
This week we drop from $7,100 straight down to $5,800 so lucky me, I get to skip over a whole tier! Overall, this tier is full of the bottom of the barrel drivers that give you low salary, low owned, low ceiling drivers that you can only really target with place differential potential. I am overlooking most of these drivers to pluck value from the 7k tier this week but let’s dig in for the possibilities! Cole Whitt tops the list with an average place differential of +11 over his three career Michigan starts. His average start is 39th and his worst finish is 32nd, so if you are looking for a reach of a driver this week, Cole is a worthy GPP flier. JJ Yeley has the most Michigan starts under his belt from this tier with 14. Yeley does hold a -4 place differential over those 14 starts, but has turned in a best career finish of 24th. The driver from this group, numbers aside that sticks out the most to me is Sam Hornish Jr. who is coming off a ninth place Watkins Glen finish. Hornish Jr. isn’t a driver that typically sticks out in many formats of racing, but at $5,600 it’s hard not to try and fit him into at least one lineup this weekend. Top Pick – Cole Whitt ($5,500)