Trading Paint: Richmond NASCAR DFS Picks
Richmond is a D-Shaped oval short track. It comes in at .75 miles and has 14-degree banking in the turns. The King “Richard Petty” holds the track win record with 13 wins. This week will be about the driver that finds the front. Lead laps will help you take down a GPP this week.
No Video Today – Wheels and I will be knee deep in NFL statistics!
Here is our version of a Daily Fantasy NASCAR Grind Down.
$11,000 Tier
Wheels – One last race before the Chase starts next weekend ladies and gentleman, so y’all better buckle up because Richmond will bring some extremely aggressive racing for those drivers on the outside look in. In the past history at Richmond, it is usually one driver that hogs most all of the bonus points (fastest laps/laps led). With that said, it likely explains the price jump for theses next 2 guys that were going to talk about in the $11,000 Tier. Kevin Harvick has been “Freaky Fast” right from the start and is seriously itching to get back into victory lane. Harvick seems to be putting Outback Steak House out of business with all of his top 10 finishes this season, but he would love nothing better to be able to get another victory to start the Chase momentum off with a bang. Harvick has two wins and six top-10 finishes here over his last ten races here and is also coming off the spring race finishing runner-up to his teammate Kurt Busch. The other $11,000 Tier driver this week is none other than the guy that had the car to beat all race last week but finished in the runner-up position, Brad Keselowski. This Penske team has gotten it together and it’s translating to the success that Keselowski is seeing on the track; he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 since Daytona nine races ago now. Keselowski didn’t have a great race here in the Spring, but that was during the Penske slump and I can confidently throw that race out the window as I prepare my lineups for Saturday night. Go back to this very race, race #26 in 2014 and check out his dominating numbers! I’ll give you a preview – He scored 190.75 points and the next closest point total was only 69.
Top Pick – Kevin Harvick
$10,000 Tier
I am just going to call this the Kyle Busch Tier and move on to the next tier! Ok, I will go a little further into details… Kyle Busch or “Rowdy” has had one eventful season from the Eve of Daytona up until the checkered flag dropped at Darlington. He has headlined so many previews the second half of the season and there is no questioning that he has earned his way into the Chase. Why is Richmond different? Richmond is different because, for starters, Rowdy clinched 30th position in the standing which has locked him into the Chase. So, for the first time this entire season he can ignore everything around him and just DRIVE! With nothing to lose at Richmond, the most aggressive driver on the circuit will be driving the #18 M&M’s car like he stole it and I am having a hard time envisioning this race with any other driver than Rowdy in victory lane on Saturday night. Joey Logano, who is also riding that Penske success with Keselowski as he has rattled off nine top-5s over his last 12 races on the 2015 schedule. Logano has also had recent success at Richmond with a win and three top-10s over his last four Richmond races. Matt Kenseth is a guy that just goes overlooked so much because he is in-between the ”elite” and ”above average” groups. While he hasn’t had too much success that jumps off the paper as of late at Richmond, he does have a win here to go along with his 14 career top 10’s and drives for JGR which is worth something alone at this point.
Top Pick – Kyle Busch
$9,000 Tier
This is an interesting Tier because there is actually quite a lot of Richmond success between the three drivers. Kurt Busch absolutely stole the show in the spring race here on his way to leading 291 laps and was the top DraftKings scorer by 67.25 points over the next closest driver. You just simply can’t ignore his recent Richmond numbers, but I think a lot has changed since then so he isn’t a must target but more of a must pay attention to practice/qualifying type of driver for this race. Carl Edwards is a driver that doesn’t ever get credit for winning races, and I will admit I am one of those people that doesn’t give him enough credit at times. But here I go again, not giving him enough credit! Yes, he has 7 top 10’s over his last 10 Richmond races. Yes, he has a win under his belt at Richmond. Yes, JGR as a whole is at the top of the confidence scale. But I am not a fan of his price tag and I can’t throw out the fact that he only spent 7 of the 400 laps of the spring race inside the top 15. Denny Hamlin is about as brittle as the come! Tearing his ACL in a basketball game and not the first time it’s happened either! But Hamlin has been in this situation before and has raced through many injuries so I am not going to shy away from him – Who needs an ACL to race anyways!? This is Hamlin’s home track, and he has a great track history and would love better to crawl out of his car into his crutches in victory lane! The most amazing eye-popping stat that you can find out Hamlin is that in the 18 races that he has raced at Richmond, he has led nearly 20% of the laps in his career! That speaks volume and if you don’t think the injury slows him down, I would highly recommend Hamlin as a play.
Top Pick – Denny Hamlin
$8,000 Tier
And then we get the Hendrick Tier… at $8,000!? What in the world is going on in that garage these days? They are clearly missing what JGR/Penske/SHS has, but the joy of DFS is that they can still be rostered if the value is right and at $8,000 I can’t talk you out of stacking Hendrick; but I wouldn’t advise! Jimmie Johnson is going to get it going – That has been the thought for quite some time now. I am at the point with him that unless he qualifies outside the top 15-20 that he is off my radar until it burns me. Martin Truex Jr. in this tier is pretty surprising to me though. We have thrown the previous numbers out the window with him this season and I don’t see why that changes now. NASCAR said that they wouldn’t change the rules packages for the chase and it is unchanged for Richmond. That is big news for Truex Jr. and us DFS players both because we have seen what he can do in this package this season. In the Spring race Truex logged some fastest laps and was top 5 for parts of the race and finished in 10th. At this price tag, that is all you need is a solid top 10 which shouldn’t be hard to come by. Jeff Gordon falls into the Jimmie Johnson category right now, even though he has four straight top 10’s I am finding it hard to roster him unless he is starting outside the top 15-20. Dale Earnhardt Jr. seems to always find himself around 20th or so after qualifying so it really makes him playable week in and week out even though Hendrick isn’t leading laps or registering fastest laps (which will be key in this 400 lap race). Jamie McMurray has raced his way into the Chase by clinching a spot without a win, so McMurray is a driver that will be in that aggressive mode for this race with nothing to lose. Kyle Larson only has one way to make the chase and that is to WIN. While you may have heard me say two months ago that Kyle Larson would win and make the chase this season I think he is a risky play on Saturday night. But that is no different than any other race with Larson! He races aggressive and is still too young to settle down behind the wheel. With his aggression, he is always in play for a GPP but is very scary in cash lineups!
Top Pick – Martin Truex Jr.
$7,000 Tier
Not gonna lie, I feel like Wheels wrote a book this week. Oh well, time to dig into the value and see what we can pull out. The 7,000 dollar tier is where the money will be made this week. All of these 7k drivers are searching for a win to solidify their spot in the Chase. At the top of this tier we find Kasey Kahne, unfortunately, it just hasn’t been his year. However, this is a track where he can turn it all around. Kahne has led 281 laps at Richmond and has produced 378 fastest laps. Kahne has won here before and desperately needs to find victory lane tonight. Ryan Newman and Clint Bowyer are next. If I am trying to pick the safer of the two, I am going with Newman (who has been a top 10 machine). If I am trying to win a GPP, I am rolling Bowyer. Bowyer loves Richmond and has two wins here. He will be racing for the win tonight and should look to impress. Rounding out this tier is Tony Stewart. Stewart also loves this track will probably qualify pretty high. The problem is he hasn’t done anything all year long. I look for Stewart to start 15th and finish 15th, nothing more and nothing less.
Top Pick – Clint Bowyer ($7,500)
$6,000 Tier
At the top of this tier sits one of my favorite drivers of the night, the Bif. Greg Biffle is in need of a win and has been a great place differential play this year. The Bif has a 16.5 place average finish at Richmond and will be pulling out all the stops to find the top 10 this week. The RCR crew comes in next with Paul Menard and Austin Dillon. Both guys have the ability to run well, but I have to play grandpa’s boy. Austin has really impressed me over the last couple of months and should be in for a decent night tonight. The next three drivers in this tier are David Ragan, Aric Almirola, and AJ Allmendinger. I personally feel like Ragan will practice and qualify high, but will end up going backward. Aric Almirola seems underpriced and should make for a great value play this week. He has consistently found the top 15 and should do the same tonight.
Top Pick – Greg Biffle ($6,800)
$5,000 Tier
I have some love for the top of this tier, but that’s about it. With all of the value in the 7k and 6k range, it’s hard to want dig this deep. Casey Mears and Sam Hornish Jr. come in at the top of this tier. Mears has consistently been a positive place differential play every week. Hornish was impressive last week and has the ability to produce a top 25 race. Out of the two I feel like Mears is the safest. Out of the rest of the pack, I like Danica Patrick, Trevor Bayne, and Landon Cassill. Danica performs well at Richmond but has the ability to qualify to high. Bayne and Cassill should make for great place differential plays. If you are trying to stack the top Bayne and Cassill should provide you with the positive points, you need to keep your lineup toward the front of a GPP.
Top Pick – Landon Cassill ($5,500)