TUF 24 Finale: Johnson vs. Elliot Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks. Last week, Jake Matthews let us down as a huge favorite, but thankfully Robert Whittaker came through as the dog, and Volkanovksi scored big as well.
We have an interesting card this week as Mighty Mouse takes on former and now current UFC fighter Tim Elliot for the 125 belt. I’ve broken down each and every fight in the MMA Premium section, which you can purchase for only $5! https://rotogrinders.com/marketplace/mma-premium-339
I’ll also be posting the Expert Rankings tonight, and projections tomorrow. I’ll be answering questions in the Premium Chat tomorrow and Saturday as well, and I’ll be releasing an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast with leroistephon, which you can find on my Twitter account at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Demetrious Johnson, 10.2k
It’s rare that we see fighters priced above 10k in the new roster format, but DJ absolutely deserves this tag against Tim Elliot, and he’s an elite cash game play. As usual, this is a fight and anything can happen, but Johnson is a -1000 favorite, with a five round floor, and he’s widely considered the No. 1 P4P fighter in the world.
There’s no other fighter on this card higher than -270, so DJ is a plug and play for me this weekend, and even though he’ll be popular, he won’t be higher than 70 percent, and that’s still an edge.
Elliot won TUF 24 and has already fought some of the best dudes in the 125 division during his first stint in the UFC – he lost to Joe Benavidez, John Dodson and Ali Bagautinov, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if he gave DJ a “close” fight and took this to a decision. But I still expect DJ to win, and I expect him to score 100+ over the course of five rounds.
2. Jorge Masvidal, 8.8k
Jorge Masvidal is the 2nd or 3rd heaviest favorite on the card, depending where you look, at -260, and he’s priced as the fourth highest fighter at 8.8k. He’s fighting Joe Ellenberger, who’s coming off an impressive finish over Matt Brown, but that doesn’t really scare me.
Masvidal has only been finished by TKO once in 40+ career fights, and he’s one of the most durable guys in the UFC. Ellenberger has power, but as long as Masvidal doesn’t lose by KO in Round 1, he should win this fight. He has more technical striker, better cardio, strong defensive wrestling and he’s simply a much better fighter than Ellenberger in 2016.
There are really NO safe guys outside of DJ on this card, but I’m willing to pay up for the veteran Masvidal in cash games, as I think he has a nice floor and should get the win. He also has decent upside for a finish, with an ITD prop of +147.
Tournament Plays
1. Ion Cutelaba, 8.9k
Ion Cutelaba is a -230 favorite against Jared Cannonier, with an ITD prop of -140, in a fight that’s -300 to finish. That pretty much says it all as to why you should target Cutelaba in tournaments.
One interesting and potentially scary note about this fight is that Cannonier is dropping down from the HW division, where he went 1-1 with a KO win and a loss, so he might have some size on Cutelaba. But he shouldn’t have the speed or durability advantage, and I doubt his cardio will hold for three rounds.
Cutelaba showed in his last fight that he can take punches, albeit in the LHW division, and fight strong for three rounds, and that’s a recipe to beat the power punching of Cannonier. He is pricy at 8.9k, but he has one of the highest upsides on this card, and I will have heavy exposure to him this weekend.
I do think you can target Cannonier as a cheap tournament play as well, in lineups you aren’t using Cutelaba.
2. Dong Hyun Kim, 8.3k
Dong Hyun Kim was the loser in what was arguably fight of the year against Polo Reyes, as he absorbed nearly 150 significant strikes and a few knockdowns before getting KOd in the third round.
Yes he’s risky, but he can also deliver a punch himself, and he’s fighting a low-level dude in Brendan O’Reilly who’s coming off a KO loss of his own.
Vegas lists Kim as the slight -135 favorite with an ITD prop of +190. O’Reilly is the wrestler in this fight, so he’ll need to get the fight on the mat. If he can’t I think Kim lights him up and eventually gets the stoppage, so I really like him as a tournament play for 8.3k.
Fade of the Week
1. Joseph Benavidez, 9k
As usual, I like the guy I’m writing up as my fade to win this fight, but it’s the price that scares me. Joseph Benavidez is a -200 favorite against Henry Cejudo, and unless JB can duplicate DJ’s last performance with a 1st round KO of Cejudo, he’s not going to pay off the 9k price tag.
The only fighter above Benavidez is DJ, and although it’s a big gap, I think DJ easily outscores Benavidez, who’s odds have dropped below that of Cutelaba’s, Font’s and Masvidal’s, all priced below him.
Benavidez also doesn’t have the upside I’m looking for in terms of Vegas, as he’s currently +245 to win ITD. Cejudo is actually +850, which is horrendous and may give you a glimpse as to his upside as well, but overall, this isn’t a fight I’m loving on DraftKings.
2. Kailin Curran, 8.6k
Oh heyyy a bonus fade! I wasn’t really planning on writing her up but looking at the prices again, I might as well. Curran is way too inconsistent and green for me to target on a general basis, even against a low-tier fighter like Jamie Moyle. Could she win this fight, sure, and could she finish, sure, but I’m not going to invest too heavily in her, especially for 8.6k.
Below Curran, you can afford guys like Moreno, Kim, Stansbury/Clark, Maynard/Hall, and just above her is Rob Font, who has much more upside. She’s just too pricy for me in this spot, and I’ll be fading her on Saturday.