TUF 26 Finale and UFC 218 Quick Picks
Welcome to an extended version of the UFC Quick Picks, I’ve decided to combine some of my favorite plays from the TUF 26 Finale card on Friday and the UFC 218 card on Saturday.
Full breakdowns of both cards, plus rankings and projections are live in the Premium section right now, and there is still hundreds of thousands of dollars up for grabs this weekend. Best of luck to everybody playing, and hopefully these picks get you a step closer to winning some of that money!
Onto the fights!
NEW TO MMA PREMIUM: I’ve decided to add my personal bets, betting breakdown videos and strategies to MMA Premium, which you can find in the link below.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Max Holloway, UFC 218, $9,300
Similar to last week with Kelvin Gastelum, we are targeting the high floor of the main event favorite this week with Max Holloway at 9.3k. Holloway is facing Jose Aldo again, and generally, when a young fighter beats an aging veteran and the two rematch, the younger fighter wins easier the second time around.
That’s just a narrative but Holloway is -310 favorite this time around with a -120 line to win ITD. Aldo has a +669 line to win ITD meaning his chances of finishing Holloway aren’t very strong.
So in a five round fight, I definitely want 25 minutes of action from Holloway in cash games. He lands at an incredible rate of 5.79 significant strikes per minute with upside. Even in a loss, I think it’s likely Holloway scores more than 50 points and he will be very popular at the price point. Aldo is still a legitimate threat, but Holloway has the floor I am looking for in cash games.
2. Roxanne Modafferi, TUF 26, $7,700
I’m going with the flip side of the main event for cash games in the TUF 26 Finale card. Modafferi is stepping up last minute to take on Nicco Montano for the title, after Modafferi lost to Sijara Eubanks in the semifinals.
Montano is a sizable favorite and I understand it, but Modafferi is far more experienced and technical. The downside with Modafferi is that she’s not athletic in the slightest, but what I like most about her is her price.
Unlike many of these women’s fights, this title fight is actually projected to go the full 25 minutes, with the Over on 4.5 rounds set at -155. I’m not super confident in Modafferi winning the title, but I at least think she can compete and hopefully go the distance against the far less experienced Montano. Modafferi strikes at a high enough rate and can grapple well enough that I think she will pay off her cheap salary even in a loss.
There aren’t a ton of underdogs I’m dying to play on the TUF 26 card, but there are fighters I want to pay up for. Targeting the underdog in the main event in cash games should give us a high floor and allow us to spend up elsewhere.
TOURNAMENT PLAYS
1. Justin Gaethje, UFC 218, $8,700
I can’t lie, I am so excited to watch Justin Gaethje perform this weekend. Sure, we know he loves to get hit in the face and eventually it will cost him, but he’s someone I want tournament exposure to each and every time he fights.
Gaethje will literally walk down his opponent in hopes of landing the KO, and he lands at an incredible rate. It’s nearly impossible to land more strikes than he does. Michael Johnson almost did it in their debut, and he hurt Gaethje badly twice, but Gaethje recovers instantly and Johnson eventually broke. That’s the recipe he always uses, and it’s led him to a 18-0 record with 15 knockouts.
I think there’s a strong chance Gaethje breaks Alvarez again too this weekend. Alvarez has taken a lot of damage in his past two fights and his durability is decreasing. He still has power in his hands but if this becomes a contest of who can take more damage, I have to bet on Gaethje. He has an ITD line of +105, which is one of the better lines on the card.
It’s more than enough for me to get some exposure to Gaethje this weekend.
2. DeAnna Bennett, TUF 26, $9,400
Another heavily priced fighter and one of my favorite targets on the TUF 26 card, I think DeAnna Bennett is super sneaky in tournaments. She’s priced below Andrew Sanchez and above fighters like Rachel Ostovich who I expect to be more popular, but I think Bennett has a very good chance to finish her fight.
She’s taking on Melinda Fabian, who showed zero ground game on the show, losing to Ostovich by RNC in round one. Bennett is a better grappler than Ostovich in my opinion, and is more experienced. There’s a good chance she can get the fight to the ground early and grab a RNC.
Bennett has an ITD line of +120, and I think she’s worth targeting if have the money to spend.
Value Plays
1. Charles Oliveira, UFC 218, $7,700
One of the best value plays on the UFC 218 card is Charles Oliveira, who is currently priced at 7.7k but has climbed up to a -115 favorite over Paul Felder. I actually think the fight as a whole is a strong tournament target, because Oliveira likely finishes with a choke early in the fight, or Felder breaks him along the way.
But in terms of value, Oliveira is the play, he’s the only favorite priced below the mid-range, and he’s grappling based which scores well on DK. His ITD line is also very strong for the price at +174. If I am looking to save a few bucks on the UFC 218 card, Oliveira makes for a good target.
2. Terrion Ware, TUF 26, $7,200
When we drop this low in the price range it always gets risky, but someone I’m willing to take a chance on is Terrion Ware for 7.2k. He’s fighting Sean O’Malley who should be very popular, but mostly because he’s a lot of fun to watch.
O’Malley is coming off the DWTNCS show and he scored an impressive knockout, which will stick in people’s minds. I’m not saying O’Malley isn’t a good fighter, but I think he’s being overhyped right now, and I’m not sold on his pure technical boxing skills. Ware is basically all about the fundamentals, and even though he’s not super athletic, if he can survive the early onslaught from O’Malley, I think he has a reasonable chance at winning a decision.
For the cheap price tag, the high ownership on O’Malley and the technical boxing of Ware, I think he makes for a good punt play at 7.2k.
Fade of the Week
1. Shana Dobson, TUF 26, $9,100
There are a lot of clear mismatches on the TUF 26 card, and I think a lot of fighters have the potential to finish quickly. Shana Dobson is priced like she has a mismatch, but I’m not positive that’s the case, and I’d rather pay up for every fighter above her.
She’s only 2-1 professionally, and while she looks athletic and powerful, I don’t think she has a great chance to finish and she may be at a technical disadvantage against Ariel Beck, who has at least fought better competition. This mostly comes down to the price for me though, I can’t force every fighter in, and Dobson won’t make the cut.
2. Tecia Torres, UFC 218, $8,600
There’s really nothing wrong with Tecia Torres as a fighter and I’m mostly expecting her to get the job done against Michelle Waterson, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into a strong DraftKings play.
Her odds to finish Waterson are +610, which is horrendously bad, even much worse than Waterson’s odds. It is one of the worst lines on the entire card. Now that doesn’t mean it’s impossible for her to finish, but at 8.6k, I would rather pay up a bit more to someone who has a reasonable shot at a finish, or someone who can wrestle.
Torres is mostly likely to keep the fight standing and throw volume, which is safe, but not the upside I’m looking for in tournaments.