TUF Finale: RDA vs. Usman Quick Picks

Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks!

Even though it’s a small slate in terms of DraftKings prize pools compared to the slate on Saturday, there are some very solid fights on this card and I’ve shared some of my favorite plays below.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Kamaru Usman, 9k

I’m always down to target the Main Event favorite in cash games, especially if that fighter has a wrestling base.

We get that this week with Kamaru Usman taking on Rafael Dos Anjos. Usman is priced at 9k but has the ability to both strike and wrestle in volume, and he has the potential to fight for five rounds.

Even in a decision, I think Usman is capable of putting up 100 points in a victory, and his floor is very safe considering Dos Anjos has a limited chance to earn a finish. Usman is simply a very strong cash game target on this slate and definitely someone worth considering.

2. Raoni Barcelos, 9.5k

All things considered, the safest play on the slate is likely Raoni Barcelos who is priced up at 9.5k.

Barcelos is the heaviest favorite on the card at -450, with an ITD line of -119, so his metrics are strong. He has a well-rounded game and a favorable matchup against newcomer Chris Gutierrez.

Barcelos is capable of boxing at a high clip and his wrestling/grappling should be more than enough to earn an advantage against Gutierrez, who is a striking based fighter.

I like the idea of paying up for Usman in cash games, but if I have the salary to reach the top tier with a second option, Barcelos is absolutely the fighter I would target.

Tournament Plays

1. Juan Espino, 8.5k

Let’s not get it twisted, in a slate dubbed The Ultimate Fighter Finale, the options we have are limited.

Juan Espino is not a great fighter or talent, but I think he’s a high-upside play on this slate against Justin Frazier in the HW Finale. His opponent Frazier has a limited wrestling and striking game, with questionable cardio. I think Espino has a reasonable chance to survive the early round and then secure a late finish as Frazier gasses.

Espino is also bigger and stronger and a more technical grappler than Frazier, so he has options here. But it’s the price I like most, along with Espino’s ITD line of +114.

2. Roosevelt Roberts, 9.2k

Another high-upside target is Roosevelt Roberts, who is making his UFC debut this weekend against Darrell Horcher. I have major questions about the longterm upside of Roberts as well as some of his skills, but he’s an aggressive grappler and Horcher has shown defensive grappling weaknesses in the past.

If Roberts gets the win, he has potential to land several takedowns and advances, and possibly secure a finish on the mat. His ITD line is -105 which is strong and his odds to win are strong at -300.

Fade of the Week

1. Antonina Shevchenko, 9.3k

This one is easy, Antonina Shevchenko is way too expensive for her projected output and I am not willing to pay up 9.3k for her services.

Yes she’s the sister of Valentina Shevchenko, and although Antonina fights similarly, that’s not necessarily a positive thing from a DraftKings perspective. She’s a limited-volume striker who likes to keep the fight standing and has an ITD line of +437.

There are many strong plays in the top range on this slate and Shevchenko is the fighter I am least interested in at 9.3k.

About the Author

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Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.