TUF Finale: Tavares vs. Adesanya Quick Picks
Welcome to the TUF 27 Quick Picks! It’s important to note that this is merely a taster card for the big event on Saturday, many of these fighters are lower-level, it should be a fun card but I’m not going into it with heavy expectations.
DraftKings actually released a fun survivor slate for the two events, you enter on Friday and only get to play on Saturday if you beat out half the field. It’s a cool addition and should be something fun to follow over the weekend.
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Luis Pena, $9,300
The heaviest favorite on the slate is Luis “Violent Bob Ross” Pena, coming in at -360 in his debut off TUF against SBG product Richie Smullen.
I do think Smullen has upside, he’s a grappling-dependent fighter who loves to fish for leg locks, but outside of that his game is limited. He hasn’t looked strong on the feet, and that’s where Pena excels and should have the biggest advantage.
Pena also comes from a wrestling background but I’m still not sold on his defense, however I think he has enough to keep it on the feet here, and he’s been training at AKA for this camp. If he can do that, he should be able to pick Smullen apart and probably earn the TKO.
Pena also has an ITD line of -175, for his metrics, floor and ceiling I will take him in cash games at 9.3k.
2. Brad Katona, $8,600
One of the finalists in the Featherweight competition, Brad Katona faces underdog Jay Cucciniello who is coming off the performance of his life against Tyler Diamond. Cucciniello couldn’t stop takedowns early in the show but somehow came back to beat Diamond who is likely the superior fighter of them all.
Katona is extremely well-rounded though, he’s a decent volume striker with good wrestling and strong submission grappling. He is a bit small for the division but I believe he has the tools to win this fight. If he can get Cucciniello on the mat, he will have a legitimate chance to take the back and get the RNC. If not, he should still be competitive, but it’s possible he loses a decision from the more powerful Cucciniello.
Either way, Katona is only 8.6k, and he comes in at -230, making him the second heaviest favorite on the card behind Pena. He has several hundred dollars of odds value, and in cash games, that’s an easy target for me.
Tournament Plays
1. Oskar Piechota, $9,000
I prefer Oskar Piechota in tournaments because I don’t yet trust his floor. He doesn’t strike at a high volume, he doesn’t wrestle at a high volume but he is a finisher and in a decent spot against Gerald Meerschaert.
I like some of Meerschaert’s game, but he’s been taken down by weak wrestlers and I expect Piechota can do the same. If so, he should be able to advance position and potentially earn the submission. Piechota is -121 to win ITD and it will likely be based on grappling, which lines up for a strong DK score.
He will be popular, but Piechota has one of the highest upsides on the slate and he’s worth some exposure.
2. Brad Tavares, $8,000
Regardless of which way you lean on the main event, I think getting at least some exposure to Brad Tavares is the right call.
He’s facing a world-level kickboxer in Israel Adesanya, who maybe will knock him out, but Adesanya has a defensive wrestling weakness that will eventually be exposed. Tavares is a veteran of the sport and a good wrestler, there’s a real possibility he’s the one to do it.
Plus we get him at 8k which is a great price, and he has lots of grappling potential and the upside of fighting for five rounds. I like exposure to Adesanya as well, but I lean toward Tavares in tournaments, until I see Adesanya defend against a wrestler of this caliber I have to pick against him.
Fade of the Week
1. Barb Honchak, $8,700
There’s nothing wrong with Barb Honchak, she actually submitted Roxanne Modafferi the first time both fought in 2011. But she’s old now, 38, and slowing down.
I also just don’t love her price of 8.7k, there are so many fighters with DraftKings potential on this card, she really needs a 90 or higher point score to end up on optimal lineups. And she’s just not the most likely fighter to reach that, plus her odds to win inside the distance are +655.
She may win again, but I’m not comfortable in investing lots of money in her this weekend, so I’ll likely just pass altogether.