Tuttle Time: July 2, 2013
The purpose of this article is to help you think outside the box. I’ve found that success (especially in GPP’s) usually isn’t found in the masses, but oftentimes in the hidden gems that nobody took the time to look at. Admittedly, a lot of the plays I provide will not make any sort of logical, or statistical sense, but sometimes your “gut” takes precedence over logic/statistics. While the plays I provide may not always be included in my lineup when all is said and done, I believe all of them should be given serious consideration. Before I get started, here are a few disclaimers/notes you will grow accustomed to in this new RG column:
Tuttle Disclaimers
- All plays are regardless of price, unless price is specifically mentioned. I’d love to breakdown each play per site/price, but let’s be honest – it’s not going to happen (at least all the time). RG Incentives offer Player Projections, which can help in that regard.
- All suggestions are pending weather. Weather is one of the most basic variables a grinder needs to take into consideration, but also one of the most overlooked. I generally like to stay safe when it comes to weather and playing both hitters and pitchers, but especially pitchers.
- Check lineups! Due to the when this article is being submitted, I don’t have the luxury of seeing lineups. Some plays may not be applicable due to a player not playing.
Now that the boring stuff is out of the way, it’s Tuttle Time.
Tuttle Time: July 2, 2013
1.) Jason Hammel – Tuesday night is shaping up as an interesting night for SP. While there is a fair amount of intriguing options available, it looks like no matter which direction you decide to go there will be some sort of gamble involved (other than maybe Strasburg). Kershaw is pitching in Coors, Price is coming off the DL against an Astros team that hits LHP well, Lynn is horrible on the road, and Lackey is, well, Lackey. So, on a night where there doesn’t appear to be a “sure thing”, why not take a little extra gamble – at least on multi-SP sites and in qualifiers. The Orioles will enter Tuesday nights game as slight favorites, giving Hammel a decent shot for those “W” points. Throughout his career, Hammel has also been significantly better on the road. While still not posting great numbers, Hammel owns a road ERA of 4.58 (vs. 5.05 home) and a .752 OPS against (vs. .802 @ home). Hammel is also owner of a serviceable 6.6 SO/9, which should be attainable against the White Sox who are 9th in the league in K% at 20.5%. The Sox are also owners of the leagues 26th worst wOBA (.299).
2.) Jayson Nix – If you decide to deploy the somewhat suicidal “punt the 3b position” strategy, Nix may be your guy. Depending on Girardi’s mood, Nix has been batting anywhere from 2nd-7th in the NYY lineup, but Nix is playable no matter where he falls on Tuesday night (with a slight increase in value if he is batting 2nd). Nix and the Yankees will face off against Samuel Deduno, who has been spectacular this year, but should regress, at the very least slightly, as the season continues. In his fairly short MLB career, Deduno has posted reverse splits, having significantly more success against LHB (.672 OPS) than RHB (.797 OPS). While I would expect that gap to decrease over time, the numbers at least show us that Deduno isn’t a dominant pitcher against RHB’s. Nix also provides you with stolen base potential, being 11/11 on SB this year.
3.) Josh Hamilton – I’m expecting Hamilton to be under-owned on Tuesday night due to his horrendous start to the season, and the fact that the Angels host the formidable Lance Lynn and the Cardinals. While Hamilton has drastically under-performed this year, he has shown a little glimmer of hope in the Angels past 2-series where he went 9/21 with 4 RBIs, and 4 BBs in a 6-game hitting streak. Lynn is a good pitcher, but is significantly worse on the road, and against lefties. Lynn is owner of a 2.88 ERA and .601 OPS at home, and the owner of a 4.27 ERA and .753 OPS on the road. Lynn also is dramatically better against RHB (.500 OPS) then LHB (.728 OPS). Mike Scioscia has frequently struggled/experimented with the Angel’s lineup throughout the year, but I’m hoping to see Hamilton somewhere in the top-5 of the order, with plenty of RBI opportunities throughout the night.
4.) John Buck – By far the most disgusting pick, Buck has been absolutely horrendous since his hot-start to the year. In his last 10-games, Buck has gone 3/37, which is equivalent to a .081 AVG. Buck’s season officially hit rock bottom last Wednesday as he was PH for late in the game. With all of that said, Buck still continues to find himself batting 6th for the Mets, with plenty of RBI chances. Buck faces off against Patrick Corbin, who, kind of like Lance Lynn, is significantly worse on the road and against opposite handed batters. Corbin owns a .630 OPS at home and a .605 OPS against LHB. While not bad, Corbin’s splits on the road (.714 OPS) and against RHB (.714 OPS), are worth taking note of. Add the fact that Buck plays in an often extremely “puntable” position, and will be minimum salary across the board, Buck may be the perfect balance of risk/reward you need for your GPPs on Tuesday night.