UCL DFS Targets: Wednesday, November 4th
We have another Champions League slate on our hands here and this one brings some goodness and more options and decisions to be made. There are four big favorites in this slate, with three at home and one on the road. There are teams that are not performing up to standard in the domestic leagues, such as Chelsea, so the question remains whether they can turn it around with European competition coming into play. Once again in this slate there is plenty of value that will enable us to essentially pick any player we want which will make creating lineups real easy, and gives us an edge as we can use whatever information we have to eliminate the less-than-optimal plays and create the lineups with the highest floor and highest ceilings.
With Champions League, more so than with EPL or MLS, it is imperative to ensure you have the correct starters in your lineups as coaches can and will rotate players from the domestic league to the European league in order to preserve legs and to try to gain an edge on the opposition. So be sure to check lineups one hour before lock and make sure ALL the players on your team are starting.
Lets get on with the picks.
Goalkeepers
Marc-Andre Ter Stegen, Barcelona $4,100 – Biggest favorite on the board still gets top billing on my squads. I like Barcelona to dominate this game and for Ter Stegen to have an easy day. This limits his upside, but it also lowers the risk associated in rostering him. While BATE have shown good European form this season by beating Roma, they will struggle against Barca and Ter Stegen should get the win bonus along with the potential clean sheet.
Roberto, Olympiakos $3,600 – Olympiakos are favored at home against a team they managed to beat on the road in the reverse fixture. The Greek champions are actually on an eight-game win streak and have won 15 of their last 16 matches. And while I’m still not convinced at their elite status (see my column from two weeks ago) you have to give credit where credit is due, they manage to win games despite only holding possession 37% of the time in their opening three matches. That said, giving up a lot of possession means giving the opponent potential for plenty of shots which gives the keeper potential for plenty of saves. This can’t go wrong, right?
Other Goalkeepers to Consider: Iker Casillas (Porto, $3,900), Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich, $3,800), Asmir Begovic (Chelsea, $3,700)
Defenders
Jordi Alba and Dani Alves, Barcelona $4,100 and $3,900 – Targeting the Barcelona defense should work well this week. Especially these two who are going to push forward hard and try to help Barcelona win this match and secure qualification to the next round of the Champions League. Both these players are elite options and you should roster them if you can fit them into your lineups.
Arthur Masuaku, Olympiakos $2,300 – The left full-back for the Greek side should have plenty of opportunities to help his team push forward. While Olympiakos have not been a high-possession team, in the Champions League so far, they have only played one home match and that was against Bayern Munich, so I expect them to hold at least 50% possession in this one and to allow the full backs to push forward and for his price, he’s worth a spot on your team.
Miguel Layun, Porto $2,800 – Layun is a great play if he starts for the Portuguese side. They had a long trip to Israel for this matchup and are favored to walk away with a win. Maccabi have failed to score this Champions League season and this should be their best chance to do it, however, I still like Layun due to his multi-faceted upside. For the UCL season he has averaged 1.7 tackles, 3.3 interceptions, 1.7 crosses while recording two assists and 0.7 shots a game.
Other Defenders to Consider: Wendell (Bayer Leverkusen, $2,800), Maxi Pereira (Porto, $3,300), Jeremy Morel (Lyon, $2,700), Jose Gaya (Valencia, $3,200)
Midfielders
Mathieu Valbuena, Lyon $4,300 – I had to delete what I wrote for Valbuena after coming across this article today. Valbuena is apparently the victim in an extortion and blackmail case where his France teammate Karim Benzema is being implicated as guilty. While this is an off the field incident, I do caution using Valbuena as we don’t know what state his mind is in and whether these legal proceedings are affecting his preparation and focus during the match. That said, Valbuena is in one of the better spots here today and if he does play the full 90 minutes he should be taking corners and crosses for a Lyon team that likes to get crosses and corners. His floor is very high even without any goals or assists. I probably won’t be able to stay too far away from him and may end up with a good bit of him in my cash games unless another solid value option presents itself when lineups lock.
Willian, Chelsea, $4,600 – It’s tough to roster any Chelsea players with their recent form, however, there is one player that has been playing well. Willian has consistently shown improvement over his play last season. I do question whether he will start or not for Jose’s squad. He’s been the free kick specialist as well as a corner kick taker all season. If he does start then his floor is the highest on the Chelsea squad as he can have a 10 point floor easily with the potential for goals given his free kick prowess.
Soufiane Feghouli, Valencia $3,600 – Dare I say it? I like Feghouli again today. He famously scored on the reverse fixture but the goal didn’t count because UEFA decided it was an own goal, while every other outlet had it count as a goal for Feghouli. I won’t get into the argument of whether it should be a goal or not (it should) but I’ll leave you with this thought, he’s a great play for a team that is favored on the road against a weaker Belgian side. The switch to OPTA should shield us from any scoring discrepancies. Plus, his price is extremely low for a player who should line up as a winger in a 4-3-3 formation.
Mohamed Salah, Roma $3,900 – He’s an attacking midfielder with an eye for goal playing for a team that is slightly favored at home in a game that should feature plenty of goals. Salah may be an under-owned option given that the majority of players may end up targeting plays from Porto, Bayern or Barcelona. I believe the Roma-Bayer Leverkusen match will be one of the highest total scores of the day, especially since the reverse fixture featured 8 goals total.
Other Midfielders to Consider: Oleg Shatov (Zenit, $4,400), Konstantinos Fortounis (Olympiakos, $2,800), Miralem Pjanic (Roma, $3,400), Hakan Calhanoglu (Bayer Leverkusen, $3,600), Kevin Kampl (Bayer Leverkusen, $3,300), Mesut Ozil (Arsenal, $5,800), Andre Andre (Porto, $3,900)
Forwards
Neymar, Barcelona $7,900 – Go with Neymar over Luis Suarez as Neymar as he has a higher floor with just as high of a ceiling. Neymar gets more crosses, key passes, shots, tackles and interceptions than Suarez. He also touches the ball twice as often, but Suarez makes the most of his touches as he scores almost as many goals as his Brazilian teammate. Neymar has as much upside as anybody and if you manage to fit both of them into your team you won’t regret it as Barca should dominate this matchup with BATE and I expect no less than 3-5 goals scored for the Catalonians.
Hulk, Zenit St Petersburg $7,200 – In 13 games in the Russian Premier League, Hulk has a combined 18 goals and assists. He averages 5.3 shots per game and 3.3 key passes per game. He also has plenty of crosses and tackles to his name and he draws plenty of fouls from the opposition. Hulk makes a great cash play as he can provide the high floor with the upside of scoring multiple goals in a game that should be closely contested as Zenit look to steal an away win in Lyon.
Gervinho, Roma $6,300 – Gervinho may be the guy to target from the Roma offense, he leads the attack against a Bayer squad that let this team score 4 times last time they met two weeks ago. And while Gervinho didn’t score in that matchup he does have the upside to score big goals in big games. With Roma currently in 4th place in the group just two points behind Leverkusen, expect that they’ll be pressing hard to win this one hoping to secure three points.
Other Forwards to Consider: Luis Suarez (Barcelona, $8,100), Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich, $7,900), Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal, $7,500), Diego Costa (Chelsea, $7,100), Olivier Giroud (Arsenal, $6,300), Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich, $7,100), Artem Dzyuba (Zenit, $5,500), Javier Hernandez (Bayer Leverkusen, $5,400), Vincent Aboubakar (Porto, $5,800), Alexandre Lacazette (Lyon, $5,500), Moraes (Dynamo Kyiv, $4,300), Andriy Yarmolenko (Dynamo Kyiv, $4,000), Brown Ideye (Olympiakos, $3,900)