UCL DFS Targets: Wednesday, October 21st
The game of daily fantasy is an odd one. We sit here and try to predict the outcome of games and in turn use that to predict how each individual player will perform. We can use all the metrics we want, and we can try to focus our attention on a pure numerical standpoint. Sometimes we’ll get things right, sometimes we’ll get things wrong. In fact, I’d argue that if you put your thoughts out publicly, you’ll find that you likely get more wrong than right.
But it’s okay, because the process of arriving to your conclusion is what really matters, and that’s what separates the guessers from the sharp players who take the time to construct lineups that are thoughtfully based and adequately analyzed. Other times, you’ll still get things right, but the goals scored won’t count (thanks Feghouli), but if you’re lucky, it won’t matter in the long run. It all evens out, and eventually the sites will improve their stats feeds and we’ll end up with a better product because of it.
So what do we do in the meantime? We certainly can’t hope to end up with Biff’s Almanac (or was it Marty’s?), nor can we hop into a Delorean, gun it to 88 miles per hour, head back to the future, and adjust our lineups to not feature said player with his none-goal. Instead, we just need to focus on today’s slate, and answer the ultimate question.
Should we Ronaldo? We’ll have to get back to that one later.
Goalkeepers
Jan Oblak, Atletico Madrid $5,900 – If you want to build a safe lineup that carries the highest potential to cash, you should start with your goalkeeper, and preferably one that is in a highly advantageous situation. I highly recommend sticking with an expensive option for your cash games, chief among them is Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid. Atletico are playing at home and are heavy favorites as they host FC Astana, who had to travel a long way from Kazakhstan. You can go with any of the other home favorites in this one for a bit cheaper if you need the salary savings, like Joe Hart and Gianluigi Buffon, though they are not as safe.
Igor Akinfeev, CSKA Moscow $4,700 – With Manchester United traveling all the way to Russia, it is expected to be a tough matchup for them. CSKA are a decent team and will pose some problems for the Red Devils, and given that the oddsmakers seem to consider this an even matchup between the two sides, I’ll take the home keeper as a cheap GPP option in this matchup and hope that even if Manchester United manage a slim victory, he’ll get some saves that will make up for it. Detractors will say that Akinfeev has given up plenty of goals this season and will continue to do so, and I’ll agree with them, but he has also been capable of getting 3-6 saves on a consistent basis, which is all you can ask for in a GPP.
Other Goalkeepers to Consider: Joe Hart (Manchester City, $5,500), Diego Benaglio (Wolfsburg, $5,400), Johan Wiland (Malmo, $4,400)
Defenders
Bacary Sagna, Manchester City $4,300 – Sagna started over the weeked in place of the injured Aleksandar Kolarov, and with Manchester City hosting Sevilla in their group match, Sagna should get another opportunity to start on Wednesday. He played well the last time out, he pushed forward quite a bit and had the most touches of anybody on the team. His cheap price may be necessary in order to try to fit some of the expensive options up front today.
Darijo Srna, Shakhtar Donetsk $4,600 – Srna is a crossing machine, and with this being a slate that is heavy on guys that are viable priced at $4,600, I decided to highlight Srna due to the floor he brings. He crosses the ball, takes shots and gets fouled, all good things that translate to fantasy points. Fitting more than one player at this price range will be tough, but Srna should be the one you target.
Lionel Carole, Galatasaray $3,600 – On the extremely cheap end is Carole, who plays left full back for a Galatasaray team that is hosting Benfica this afternoon. Galatasaray come into this matchup trying desperately to get all three points as they face Benfica, who are currently leading the group with six points. Carole is currently ninth in the Champions League in terms of crosses (through just two games, so sample size is clearly in question), and if the Turks push forward, you can expect that Carole will have a decent floor of at least 3-5 crosses.
Other Defenders To Consider: Nelson Semedo (Benfica, $4,200), Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid, $4,600), Maxwell (PSG, $4,400), Filipe Luis (Atletico Madrid, $4,400), Ricardo Rodriguez (Wolfsburg, $4,600), Christian Trasch (Wolfsburg, $4,000), Matteo Darmian (Manchester United, $4,200), Marcos Rojo (Manchester United, $3,600), Mario Fernandes (CSKA Moscow, $3,300)
Midfielders
Koke, Atletico Madrid $7,700 – Atletico Madrid are expected to win this match handily and the oddsmakers give Astana virtually no chance at a win (by my calculation they would win 7% of the time if this matchup was played 1000 times). Look for Atletico to push forward and to score 2+ goals. Koke is heavily involved in the attack and should be delivering crosses and hopefully getting some shots. He’s got some very talented forwards on his team (Griezmann and Torres) who both can score and finish the opportunities and chances that he creates.
Kevin De Bruyne, Manchester City $7,100 – He was denied a goal at Bournemouth by a superb save by the keeper, and somehow missed out on the goal-fest that City put up on Saturday. The team is still missing Silva and Aguero, so they’ll rely heavily on De Bruyne, Sterling and Bony. I like KDB and Bony the most, and looking at the midfield, the former Wolfsburg man should feature heavily in this home matchup.
Other Midfielders to Consider: Angel Di Maria (PSG, $9,900), Memphis (Manchester United, $9,800), Raheem Sterling (Manchester City, $8,600), Juan Cuadrado (Juventus, $6,700), Jesus Navas (Manchester City, $6,400), Julian Draxler (Wolfsburg, $6,400), Isco (Real Madrid, $5,900), Alex Teixeira (Shakhtar Donetsk, $5,600)
Forwards
Cristiano Ronaldo, Real Madrid $14,000 – There is a very strong argument for fading Ronaldo this week, and it has nothing to do with his 14K price tag. I want it to be clear: under normal circumstances, I would play Ronaldo even if his price went up to 17K; it just all depends on what goes on around him and on the slate. This slate is tough as there are no minimum priced punts (yet, we’ll have to wait for the lineups to come out one hour prior to lock). There is also the small consideration that Ronaldo is playing in Paris against a team that has played some very good defense in recent weeks. Also, Madrid is missing several key players, including Benzema, Bale, and James, so Ronaldo will be left on an island to contend with the French defense led by Serge Aurier and Marquinhos. The other side of the argument is that this is Ronaldo and he will find a way to score goals, like he did last weekend against Levante, but he did fail to score against Atletico Madrid a couple of weeks ago. Ultimately, the decision to fade or roster Ronaldo will not be the wrong one whichever way to choose. Roster construction will play very heavily into that one.
Antoine Griezmann, Atletico Madrid $8,800 – If you choose to fade Ronaldo, the player you should focus your attention on is Antoine Griezmann. As I mentioned earlier, Atletico are heavily favored and Griezmann should feature heavily in this one. He’s one of the most talented forwards in the world, and he has seven goals on the season, on 23 shots. While that is a high conversion rate (I expect it to drop sooner rather than later), I believe that Griezmann should still have some goals this game, given the opposition and that the match is being played at home.
Alvaro Morata, Juventus $7,000 – Another cheap-ish option for today is Morata for Juventus. Juventus play hosts to Borussia M’Gladbach, who are a confusing team. They don’t have a win in the group yet, and will look to make the most out of their matchup today and get some points from Italy, especially after coming off a 5-1 win in the Bundesliga last weekend. Morata however is a skilled striker who will partner up front with Paulo Dybala (Juventus, $5,600), and either of the forwards can take advantage of a defense that this season has allowed 16 goals (third most in Germany).
Goncalo Guedes, Benfica $4,900 – If you want a cheap forward, the Benfica man should get his chance here; his price did not go up this week even after scoring a goal last time out against the stout Atletico Madrid defense (in fact it dropped). He’ll be an active player for Benfica, and with such a cheap price tag he can help you afford more expensive options at forward.
Other Forwards to Consider: Bas Dost (Wolfsburg, $8,700), Jackson Martinez (Atletico Madrid, $9,000), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (PSG, $10,800), Anthony Martial (Manchester United, $7,900), Wilfried Bony (Manchester City, $7,300), Konstantinos Mitroglou (Benfica, $7,400), Umut Bulut (Galatasaray, $5,100), Olexandr Gladkiy (Shakhtar Donetsk, $5,600), Markus Rosenberg (Malmo $4,400), Jese (Real Madrid, $5,000)