UCL Grind Down: February 21st/22nd

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With the second week of Champions League coming up, we have four new teams to take a look at and consider the implications from a fantasy perspective. Last week we have four matches where I broke down the games and offered some insight into the games. This week will be much of the same, but you have to take into account that a lot of the information may end up changing based on the teams these coaches end up putting out there. The lineups do affect the teams and the formation affects how likely a team is to attack or sit back and absorb the opponent’s attacks.

A perfect example of this is the Borussia Dortmund team visiting Benfica. Dortmund announced their lineup and formation as a 5-3-2 with the majority of the 65% possession coming in their own half and by their central defenders. When Dortmund announced their formation, I took to Twitter and indicated that it might mean that Dortmund doesn’t attack as much while packing it in and hoping for a counter attack. While this didn’t result in a ‘park the bus’ game for the Germans, it did show in their inability to get a goal despite having a penalty kick opportunity. From time to time, a change in formation will give us a big clue when building our lineups, but that is not always the case. This highlights the importance of not just looking at the team sheet, but trying to find a visual representation of the lineup.

So where does that leave us this week? We have four more matches with two on Tuesday, and two on Wednesday as we complete the first leg of the Round of 16 contests for this year’s UCL contests. Remember, this Grind Down should act as just a guide in game analysis and player selection rather than a straight up guide on how to build a winning lineup. That part is up to you. I can help you analyze the games, but the player selections here can and probably will change between now and lineups getting announced one hour before kick off for the games. Good luck, and let’s get on the with games.

Bayer Leverkusen vs Atletico Madrid

This will be an interesting matchup to consider this week, as we start off with two teams that play different styles. Leverkusen have won two matches heading into this week’s UCL games to follow up a run where they had lost two in a row. They currently sit in 8th place in the German Bundesliga which sets them up to miss next season’s UCL campaign if they fail to win the contest and enter next year as defending champions. Needless to say, for some of these players, this matchup will be very important to take advantage of given them playing at home and wanting to travel to Spain in a couple of weeks with a lead that can propel them into the next round. The team boasts an offensive repertoire that has seen them score 13 goals in their last six games, that offensive mastery is what they will count on to overcome a solid defensive team in Atletico Madrid.

Speaking of Atletico, they come into this matchup with a reputation of being defensive stalwarts, and despite that, they have kept clean sheets in only four of their last 10 matches as they have conceded 11 goals in that span. Despite that, they have been able to be very adept offensively as their players have seemed to have found a groove with Torres and Griezmann partnering up front. Atletico are currently sitting in fourth place in La Liga just four points behind Sevilla and three points behind Barcelona (Barcelona have a game in hand Sunday as of this writing).

With this match being played in Germany, the expectation is that Atletico will try to hold Bayer Leverkusen from scoring too many goals. These teams met in 2015 in the same round and while Leverkusen came out on top 1-0 in the first leg in Germany, the Spanish team managed to push back and come out on top in the Round of 16 and advance to the next round. In fact, the German team have failed to advance from the Round of 16 in all four attempts. Will this season be any different?

Bayer Leverkusen Top Plays

Chicharito, $6,700 DK, $8,800 FD – Chicharito is the star of this team, and he’s been playing like it in recent weeks. He’s currently on a run with five goals in his last three games after he went goalless for 15 straight games. In those 15 games, they drew four, lost five and won six setting them up for a very average record that has dropped them in the standings. What Chicharito provides is the attack and finishing that when he’s on, the team looks deadlier on the attack as evidenced by their win streak of two games in a row with 6 goals scored in those games. Chicharito is also very cheap on this slate and is definitely worth taking him on, especially on DraftKings where he’s priced at 6.7K and is the 18th highest priced forward on the slate Tuesday.

Karim Bellarabi, $5,500 DK, $5,300 FD – Bellarabi has been the corner kick taker for this team and has come in to take over the role of Calhanoglu, who is suspended for the rest of the season by FIFA for some contract dispute that happened when he was 17 (no seriously, look it up, this is the latest in a long line of crazy needless suspensions by the world football governing body), but nonetheless, Leverkusen are without a major player in their team and in his place, Bellarabi is stepping up. In his last two games he’s had a goal and assist to go along with nine total shots and nine crosses. Bellarabi isn’t quite a cash play, but he’s the closest that we’ll get on this team.

Berndt Leno, $4,500 DK, $6,300 FD – Leno is a home goalkeeper in this one, and if anything, we’ve learned from following soccer in recent years is that home-field advantage does play a big part in a keeper’s fantasy outlook. Leno should be facing a tough challenge here as Leverkusen will try to get out of the BayArena with an away goal scored (thus increasing their chances at advancing) and Leno will be the last line of defense against an attack that boasts some world class Footballers.

Atletico Madrid Top Plays

Yannick Carrasco, $7,900 DK, $8,000 FD – Carrasco comes in as one of the more active players on this team, at least offensively. If you look at his last three games, he’s taken 10 total shots, scored two goals and recorded an assist. Carrasco roams down the left side of the field where he’ll be defended by Benjamin Henrichs, who is a good defender, but that just means he’s going to be busy defensively and it doesn’t preclude Carrasco from performing well on his own.

Fernando Torres, $6,400 DK, $7,900 FD – Torres is an unlikely callout in this space, but he’s been in a battle for a starting position in recent weeks, but he’s been overcoming the matchup and has three goals in his last four games despite not playing a full 90 minutes in any of the last three. His replacement, Kevin Gameiro ($6,900 DK, $8,700 FD) has four goals in his last three games including a hat-trick off the bench. I don’t expect games like that very often, but I do think there is a question in the manager’s mind whether to start Torres or Gameiro in this one. Gameiro is slightly more expensive on DK, but whichever one starts is likely to get a chance or two in this game. Of course, the main forward to consider from this team is Antoine Griezmann ($8,300 DK, $10,700 FD), who has been doing well recently with two assists in his last match and a goal in the one before. Of course, Griezmann is a bit expensive and on the road he hasn’t scored any goals for Atletico this season in the group stages. I would likely go elsewhere.

Stefan Savic, $3,300 DK, $5,700 FD – Savic is a FanDuel option only as he’s a central defender that doesn’t get forward very often. Savic does however play as the heart of the defense where he leads the team in blocks, clearances, and is one of the top tacklers and interceptors on the team. With them playing on the road, Savic has potential for racking up the defensive stats as Atletico try to come away with a clean sheet that helps them work towards advancing to the next round.

Manchester City vs Monaco

The matchup between these two teams is an interesting one as Monaco are the current leaders in the French Ligue 1, meanwhile, City are sitting in second place in the EPL. Monaco are an offensive juggernaut this season with 76 goals scored in 26 league games, which puts them ahead of the next best in the league by a whopping 26 goals. They’ve also only allowed 24 goals in the that same span meaning they’ve allowed fewer than a single goal per match. In Europe, they’ve already disbanded with an English team after finishing first in a group that included Tottenham sending the Spurs to the Europa League after beating them 2-1 in both legs of the competition. Entering this matchup, the French leaders are undefeated since before Christmas, a run that spans 12 matches. On the other hand, their opponents, Manchester City are undefeated in six straight matches that include FA cup ties. Although, their performance has been lacking recently. Their last serious challenge was a home draw with Tottenham and prior to that, they were embarrassed by Everton to the tune of a heavy 4-0 defeat. City are also reeling after losing their up and coming star forward, Gabriel Jesus for the remainder of the season. Although, they won’t miss him too much as they still have Sergio Aguero, and the rest of the superb midfield to put the pressure on the French team. Playing at home, City will look to take a commanding early lead in order to be well situated for the return leg.

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Manchester City Top Plays

Sergio Aguero, $9,200 DK, $13,300 FD – He’s undeniably the most expensive option on the slate this week and for good reason. Aguero is now the top dog on this team and will look to re-establish himself as the superstar that he is. Pep will be relying on him to lead a front three that will include Sane and Sterling, with Nolito taking spot starts depending on the matchup. Aguero should get the biggest opportunities in this matchup and he has the skill set to deliver on those opportunities.

David Silva, $6,600 DK, $9,200 FD – He’s been taking on a lot of the responsibilities that used to fall to Kevin De Bruyne. KDB seems to have lost out on a lot the opportunities he used to get last season and those have fallen to Silva. Silva now is the lead corner kick taker on the team, as well as one of the lead play makers. When City are on the break, they tend to attack in bunches and Silva has been a main facilitator in those situations giving his teammates the looks they need to make things happen. Silva should come out of this match with 2-3 shots, 3-6 crosses, 1-2 chances created along with the potential for goals and assists. This makes Silva a viable cash game option as well as tournament option on both sites.

John Stones, $5,600 FD – Stones is a FanDuel only option as he’s a central defender that will be tasked with manning the back line, along with Otamendi as they try to put a stop to the very efficient Monaco offense. Stones and Otamendi will both carry some big numbers in this one with clearances, tackles, blocks and interceptions in the mix. Look for him to fill the statsheet in defensive stats and approach 20 fantasy points for City as they play at home.

Monaco Top Plays

Thomas Lemar, $6,900 DK, $7,000 FD – One of the better cash play options on both sites will be Lemar as he carries the load for this team and is one of the better midfield options on there. On the season in France he has 7 goals and 6 assists, while he also added two goals in the UCL. The 21-year-old is one of the top performers on this team and will be a major part of their attack on this City defense.

Bernardo Silva, $7,100 DK, $6,700 FD – It’s tough to veer away from Silva who can do it all for this Monaco team. He has had his moments where he’s filled the statsheet on both the offense and the defense. In a match against PSG last month he recorded nine tackles, and two blocks on the road. Meanwhile, he’s also been a main catalyst in some of the biggest performances that Monaco have enjoyed in recent weeks including scoring a game tying goal against that same PSG team to salvage a point in the 90+ minute of the match. Silva will likely be a tournament option on DraftKings, while he can easily slot into cash team on FanDuel.

Porto vs Juventus

Porto finished their last match in the group stages with a bang as they took on the English champions Leicester and beat them 5-0 at home to close out the group and finish in 2nd place. Since then, Porto have gone undefeated in their local Portuguese league and their only loss came in the Cup where they lost a narrow 1-0 match. Porto are in excellent form with 17 goals in their last six matches and three clean sheets in that same span. They will look to host a Juventus team that comes in with a good run where they’ve dominated the Italian Serie A competition with 21 wins in 25 matches and currently lead the league by seven points. This match will end up being a very tight one as both these teams will come with a lot of pride and a lot to play for. Porto have the early upper hand, but Juventus are pegged to advance from this tie to the next round.

NOTE: At the time of this writing, FanDuel had not yet published pricing for the Wednesday slate of games.

Porto Top Plays

Alex Telles, $4,600 DK – He’s one of the key offensive components on this team as they look to take a first leg win over the Old Lady (Juventus). Telles has been key for this team this season as he has led them in assists on the season with six so far on the season in Liga NOS. He also added two more in the UCL this season. Telles also has averaged over two tackles and two interceptions and 1.7 clearances. Telles then falls in as a solid cash game option on DraftKings.

Andre Silva, $6,800 DK – The offensive talents of Porto are undeniable. Between Silva, and Soares ($5,600) the team has the capabilities to score multiple goals in a game. Andre Silva has been playing very well lately, and since the arrival of Soares in the front line next to him, the two have combined for five goals and two assists in just three matches. Porto has been playing well, and that is in part thanks to Silva’s excellent finishing and instincts in front of goal. In the last 11 matches he’s played, he has eight goals and four assists. He’s more than capable of scoring in this one, especially with the game being at home where he’s scored 12 of his 18 games across all competitions this season.

Iker Casillas, $4,600 DK – I am a big fan of Casillas as a top notch goalkeeper for his career. And while, the years may have slowed him down a little bit, there is still much left in the tank for this 35-year-old. Casillas and Buffon will be the headliners here, but with Casillas being the home keeper, he’s priced relatively cheap on DK and makes for an interesting play if you think that Porto can hold Juventus without a goal.

Juventus Top Plays

Paolo Dybala, $7,700 DK – Dybala has been lining up in the attacking midfield position for Juventus as a number 10 or even as a halfway between a 9 and 10, as he’s been tasked with going for goal, as well as supplying the playmaking for his teammates. Dybala, in that regard has been successful this season so far. He’s scored 10 total goals for the Old Lady, while recording four assists in his matches with the team. In fact, in his last six matches, he’s managed three goals and two assists to go along with 20 shots along with some crosses. Moreover, he’s gotten a bit unlucky as he’s hit the post three times in these last six matches which means he could have netted more goals had things gone his way. He’s a bit higher priced so you’d have to sacrifice elsewhere, but Juventus are a capable team of going into Porto’s stadium and scoring goals which puts Dybala as a solid option.

Gonzalo Higuain, $8,500 DK- Higuain plays a more advanced role on the team as a true striker/forward/number 9. He’s taken on the responsibility of scoring goals and putting himself in position to take advantage of his teammates’ forays in the midfield. He’s deadly with touches inside the 18 yard box. In his last six matches he has had 25 touches in front of goal in the 18-yard box, and from those 25 touches, 17 have resulted in shots, and six have turned into goals. Similar numbers have persisted throughout the season and his goal scoring has surpassed 20 goals in all competitions for Juventus. The star 29-year-old has 13 goals in his last 13 games and I suspect he’ll have a hand in continuing that streak during this home-and-home series with Porto.

Leonardo Bonucci, $3,400 DK, FanDuel price unlisted – Bonucci is a central defender on this squad and excels at collecting clearances, blocks, and tackles. For that, he’s a FanDuel option only here. Unfortunately, at the time of this writing, FD has not listed the pricing yet, so I cannot give you an indication on whether or not he’s a good play when factoring in salary, but I suspect he’ll fall somewhere in the $5,500-$6,000 range which puts him as a viable option. He totals more clearances, tackles and blocks on the road this season which puts him in a good position to collect these stats for his team.

Sevilla vs Leicester

Sevilla have the luckiest draw of any team in the Round of 16 as they get to face the English defending champions who look anything but. Leicester have been in terrible form, as they find themselves slipping towards the relegation zone with each passing week. They currently sit just one point outside of the zone with just a single point in their last six matches, and no wins in the league since the turn of the calendar. Leicester’s troubles stem from the weakness in the midfield and their inability to hold possession or create the beautiful crisp counter attack passes that they excelled at last season. This is in part a personnel problem as they’ve lost N’Golo Kante this season to Chelsea, and haven’t been able to find an adequate replacement. Their last match in European competition saw them lose 5-0 to Porto away from home. They now head back down to Southern Europe where they attempt to avoid a humiliating defeat at the hands of Sevilla.

Sevilla come into this one in third place in La Liga, just two points behind Barcelona. Their recent form has been excellent as they’ve won four of their last six including a 2-1 home win over Real Madrid. The team has also kept three straight clean sheets and are looking to add a fourth in this one. This match should be all Sevilla, all the time. Leicester are facing their toughest European match to date and will be shown to be completely out of their element early on in this one. I expect that they’ll pack it in and hope for a counter attack goal that could help them get a narrow draw or even a 1-0 win. The more likely scenario however is that Leicester concede 2-3 goals and fail to score rendering most of their players fantasy-irrelevant.

Sevilla Top Plays

Pablo Sarabia, $7,300 DK – Sarabia has topped double digit DK points in seven of his last 10 matches. He’s taken set pieces for this team and likes to spread the play out to the wings. In a match against a team that will likely park the bus, Sarabia might be a key component in breaking down the Foxes’ defenses. He won’t take a lot of shots but he’s a consistent attacking presence.

Samir Nasri, $6,500 DK – There are multiple players that stand out in the 6.5K+ in this Sevilla team, between Ben Yedder, Vietto, Vitolo and Jovetic you can take your pick in offensive players and you wouldn’t be wrong with any of them. I’m going to go with Nasri in this one as I suspect he’ll be an active part of the team’s offense. He’s familiar with this Leicester side having played against them when he was with City in the EPL. Nasri does tend to step it up in random games, but his averages in the three UCL games he’s played speak to his varying degrees of performance. He’s an ultimate GPP play as he takes 2.3 shots per game in UCL as opposed to 1.3 shots in La Liga. He’s also taken penalty kicks in the past, although he did miss the one he took recently, so he is not a lock to take them again. Taking Nasri isn’t an easy call as you’d then be foregoing some more likely scorers such as Ben Yedder, and Jovetic who have a better track record, but the savings with Nasri can get you exposure to this offense without breaking the bank. Still, if all things remain equal, Nasri is a third or fourth option on this team

Leicester Top Plays

Riyad Mahrez, $7,100 DK – Mahrez hasn’t been playing well, and his performances haven’t been of the same caliber that they were when Leicester won the title. Nevertheless, he’s still taking free kicks, and penalty kicks for this team, and that means there is always a chance he reaches 20+ fantasy points. For that reason alone, he’s an option here on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Daniel Drinkwater and Wilfried Ndidi – FanDuel – These two are both in play on FanDuel given their ability to rack up defensive stats such as blocks, tackles, interceptions and clearances. Ndidi is relatively new on the team and has already made a place for himself as a holding midfielder. I would target the one with the cheaper price tag (once pricing comes out). If you’re looking for a DK option, neither of these players intrigue me, but if you had to take a Leicester player, Albrighton would likely fit the bill.

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.