UCL Grind Down: Quarterfinals - First Leg
With Champions League competitions underway we get to once again glance at the best players in Europe and make a decision on which ones will grace our lineups on Tuesday and Wednesday. This week is game one of the two game home-and-home series of the Quarter Finals of the Champions League. Teams are vying for the chance to get to the semi-final and a chance at being crowned champions of Europe in what is likely to be a set of matches that should all prove interesting in their own accounts. In this article I’ll be breaking down team by team and for each matchup I’ll approach the breakdown a little bit differently in order to give you a feel for the kind of game to expect. One thing to consider is that Tuesday’s matches and Wednesday’s matches will be featured in the same tournaments in some cases and that you will have to utilize late swap on both FanDuel and DraftKings in order to build your best lineups. Values may show up late due to injuries, but the likelihood of teams playing ‘green’ players is slim due to the high stakes placed on this tournament. In general, in the first leg of Champions League matches, the home team comes out on top, and there are fewer goals than in the second leg. However, there are some teams here that can really ramp up the attack that it makes for an interesting dilemma to consider where to spend your salary cap.
Be sure to check out the starting lineups roughly an hour before lineups lock, as there can and will likely be surprises in who starts and where they start.
Borussia Dortmund vs Monaco
When the Champions League Draw was complete and the quarter finals matches were set, one matchup in particular seemed like fantasy gold to me. Borussia Dortmund versus Monaco is set to be an offensive clinic. Both teams are highly rated offensively and both love to push the ball forward in the attack. This leaves us viewers as the winners. Of course, when these matches take place, the managers tend to lean on the more conservative side on attack and try to shore up the defenses in order to avoid conceding plenty of goals as a result. The teams are also left with the rules of the knock out stages in the competition to consider. Away goals are worth their weight in gold here as a goal away from home is worth double in the event of a 2-leg tie that could very well happen with two free-wheeling teams. In thata case, we are left with the consideration that Monaco (being the away side) might play a more conservative match coming in here, and their manager, Leonardo Jardim, might decide to not risk exposing himself to the Dortmund attack too much in order to go back to France with an advantage (if they manage to steal an away goal or two). There are some factors to consider however in that plan. Monaco are beset by some injuries to their backline. Both choices at the full-back position are likely out, Sidibe is definitely OUT (appendicitis) and Mendy was limited in practice and according to the beat writer for Monaco was unable to accelerate in practice putting him in jeopardy of missing out as well. This may not affect their defensive prowess, but it will challenge Monaco in making runs forward as both of those players are instrumental in the Monaco attack as they showcased in the Manchester City 3-1 second leg win where Mendy and Sidibe were the tempo setters. The team will also be without attacking midfielder Bakayoko and he’ll be replaced by Joao Moutinho.
On the other side of the ball, Dortmund look to be rounding back into “healthy”, Marco Reus practiced the night before the match, but there is no news if he’s going to start. Of course, that just means that a deep Dormund team is going to be deeper. The team will likely line up in a 3-2-4-1 formation to showcase the attacking prowess of their young squad at home. They’ll be led in the line by Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has been nothing short of spectacular to his squad this season and has seven goals already in this UCL season. The side will also rely on an American, 18 year old Christian Pulisic who has a goal and two assists in this competition.
So where do we think the fantasy output will come from?
Key Fantasy Plays
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, $9,200 DK, $12,300 FD – He’s a relatively cheaper play on DK than on FD. On FanDuel he’s the most expensive player, while on DraftKings he’s down at the 4th most expensive. Overall however, he might be the player with the highest odds of scoring a goal. His team is projected to be the most likely to score and he’s their top scorer at 25 goals in the Bundesliga this season so far, making him a great choice if you choose to spend up.
Ousmane Dembele, $7,400 DK, $10,300 FD – Another player who’s price is much friendlier on DK than on FD is Dembele. Dembele intrigues me because he’s a French national who just recently returned from international duty where he shared the field with many of these players who will be potentially guarding him. He’s very familiar with the Monaco team and he’s likely to try to exploit some of their weaknesses. The 19 year old has 9 assists in League play and 5 in Champions League play and his favorite target is Aubameyang, so there is reason to believe the two will try to link up once again.
Kylian Mbappe, $7,600 DK, $8,900 FD – The Monaco forward didn’t get the start the last two matches for Monaco, but it is conceivable that he’ll get the start alongside Falcao in the front for the French side. Mbappe has come on with a fury this season as he’s only appeared in 22 matches with 11 starts but has 12 goals for the team so far, at a rate of a goal every 81 minutes on the season. He’s also performing at a rate of one shot every 25 minutes of play. Of course, this being an away match, teams tend to be more conservative. However, with the nature of the away goal as discussed above, Mbappe is the ideal candidate for this team to score a goal on a well executed counter attack if the opportunity arises.
Fabinho, $5,100 DK, $7,900 FD – Fabinho is a great cash play on FanDuel where he’s slated to start as a defensive midfielder. Over there he can accumulate defensive stats very quickly and make himself very valuable through tackles, interceptions and passes. Moreover, he also carries the upside of goals as he has taken penalties for this team and has several goals in recent matches (four of his last eight). The price makes him a wild card as not many people will consider him, but he’s worth a shot on in a tournament on DK as well.
Others – There are a few other options to consider to fill out your lineups. On DraftKings, consider the replacement full-backs for Monaco, Almamy Toure ($4,100) and Jorge ($3,300). On attack Bernardo Silva and Thomas Lemar both make for interesting options as they both take corners depending on the side of the ball. For Dortmund, consider Christian Pulisic ($6,100 DK, $7,000 FD) as he’s a major part of this team and would pair up with Dembele on the right side of the pitch where they will likely be defended by a limited Mendy or an inexperienced Jorge, either way, the matchup should favor the two Dortmund players. Finally, one last player to consider is Radamel Falcao, who has slowed down in his ‘old’ age, but would still be a threat if given the right opportunity.
Juventus vs Barcelona
This is one of the toughest quarter finals matches to analyze as these two teams have routinely been tough for me to figure out, however, there are a few key facts we can enter this matchup with that could help us navigate the minefield that is this game.
Fact 1 – Juventus have only allowed two goals in Champions League play this season. This lines up with their performances in Serie A this season where they’ve allowed just 20 goals in 31 matches.
Fact 2 – Both Juventus and Barcelona are fighting hard to win their local leagues. Juventus have the upper hand on Roma with a 6 point lead, meanwhile, Barcelona are 3 points back from Real Madrid, but Madrid have a game in hand that could see them stretch their lead to 6 points. What this means is that these teams could play this match very conservative in order to focus energies on local ties and the second leg.
Fact 3 – Barcelona famously overcame a 4-0 first leg deficit to Paris Saint Germaine to win 6-5 on aggregate. But this Juventus team is not PSG, and the Spaniards can’t afford to be complacent with their performance this week and concede goals in the same manner. Since that 4-0 defeat, Barcelona have won 8 of 10 matches, with their last league match being a 2-0 loss to Malaga that hurt their chances in La Liga.
Fact 4 – Gonzalo Higuain is the key offensive force for the Old Lady (Juventus) over the last few weeks. He has four goals in his last two matches and has 13 shots taken in his last four. He has put himself in positions to score in every single match he’s played in recent weeks. On the season he’s scored 21 goals in Serie A and is one of the hottest strikers in the world at the moment. He’s priced rather cheap on DK at $7,800, while his price on FD is a bit more appropriate at $10,900.
Fact 5 – The famous MSN trio have been doing things. Those things include shots, goals and winning games. Of course, the team failed to score last weekend and lost to Malaga, in that match Neymar saw a red card, but Messi had 6 shots. The match before that Messi had 7 shots but started in the attacking midfield, that didn’t stop him from scoring twice and hitting the crossbar once. If I had to rank the trio for fantasy purposes I’d do the following 1) Messi ($10,500 DK, $11,700 FD), 2) Suarez ($8,900 DK, $9,900 FD), and 3) Neymar ($10,700 DK, $11,200). Mostly because Neymar has looked less certain in recent weeks. Of course, with the matchup against Juventus, it’s hard to pay up the crazy price tag on any of these three, especially when considering the options you’d be giving up.
Fact 6 – Paolo Dybala makes for an interesting play for Juventus as the 23 year old Argentinean is a key contributor for this team from the number 9 position. He has 6 assists on the season for the team and seems to play better in bigger matches. This first leg will be very vital as both teams will look to try to establish themselves as the alpha dog in this matchup, in that case I like the home team to come out slightly ahead in this one by a very slight margin.
Fact 7 – The teams faced each other in the 2015 final of this very competition in Berlin, Barcelona emerged victorious in that one after a 3-1 score. This Juventus team has a stronger attack with Dybala and Higuain, meanwhile the previous version of this team had Pogba, Pirlo and Vidal int he midfield. My money says that this team will manage to hold Barcelona scoreless in this match and we’ll return to Spain with a 0-0 draw and one match for all the marbles.
Conclusion – Ultimately, this doesn’t look like a great fantasy matchup, and that’s for the better. It’s tough to pinpoint which of the Barca 3 to target in DFS, and the midfield is always a tough nut to crack. I do think that Gianluigi Buffon ($4,900 DK, $7,700 FD) is the best fantasy option because of the expected supply he’ll be facing. But, I wouldn’t begrudge anybody going in a different direction and skipping this game for fantasy altogether.
Atletico Madrid vs Leicester
The second Spanish team (of three) gets to go against the only remaining English team, Leicester City. Atletico Madrid managed to claw out a draw with cross town rivals with a late goal last weekend courtesy of Antoine Griezmann. Atletico Madrid have never been a high possession team, and that trend has continued this season, highlighted by their last six matches in which they’ve held less than 50% possession. This also led to several copy cat efforts all over the continent with teams employing similar strategies trying to emulate the success that Atletico found. Among those is Leicester, who have the most publicized and widely acknowledged success with that strategy as they rose from relegation bound to EPL champions in just one season. Leicester are now fighting for their life in the EPL (though, that appears to be far behind them as the team appears to have righted the ship under caretaker manager Craig Shakespeare. Nevertheless, they have a formidable opponent this week in Atletico Madrid. Madrid have the fortunate designation of being a very solid defensive squad as well as having some spectacular offensive products that make them a very tough team to knock out of a tournament. With the first leg being played at home, the expectation is that Atletico will dominate the action and likely force Leicester into plenty of defensive action that would end up eliminating some of the Leicester offensive options from consideration, while cementing their defensive plays and Madrid’s offensive plays as valuable DFS commodities.
Top Plays
Antoine Griezmann, $9,000 DK, $12,100 FD – He has 15 goals for his team so far this season and averages 2.6 shots a game. He scored over the weekend against Real Madrid and is poised to begin another run of goal scoring that could help keep Atletico in the running for a double championship (La Liga and Champions League). Leicester has shown their inability to contain quick talented forwards, and Griezmann could reap the benefits.
Felipe Luis, $5,500 DK, $6,000 FD – He’s been in excellent form lately with four man of the match awards in his last seven games and he’s scored twice in that span (his only two goals all season). There is no guarantee he will score here, but he’s stepped his game up recently and should be on your radar. He’s worth spending up for and should reward those who roster him this week.
Yannick Carrasco, $7,000 DK, $7,100 FD – He’s been the primary corner kick taker for this team and he takes open play crosses as well. Leicester allow opponents to spread out wide a lot and should give him plenty of looks from outside. If you choose to venture away from Carrasco, you could look at Koke, Correa or Saul Niguez as an option on either site as all four have similar upside while Carrasco has a higher floor on DK (and Koke has a higher floor on FD).
Kasper Schmeichel, $3,600 DK, $7,400 FD – He’s on the road, so he’s not a GREAT play, but he’s a great play (notice the difference?). Schmeichel should face some shots in this one, and he’s a talented keeper to make up for it with saves. On FanDuel he’s even more valuable as he can convert shots into saves and goals conceded won’t hurt him as much. He’s unlikely to get a clean sheet (though its not out of the realm of possibility), so he’s a definite possibility for the clean sheet bonus and a surprise win bonus as well.
Wilfried Ndidi, $4,100 DK, $6,800 FD – He’s been exceptional for this team since his arrival in January. Part of that is due to the change in managers, and partly due to his own skill set. But he’s blossoming for this team. Unfortunately, he’s missed the last game and is doubtful for this one on Wednesday. From my vantage point on Tuesday morning, he’s likely to be ready to play, but if he does not, then you can pivot to Drinkwater or King for the same upside in terms of defensive stats that come with playing on the road as an underdog.
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid
Our third Spanish team gets to visit Bayern Munich is what is bound to be another excellent match in this quarterfinals draw. Bayern come into this game after completely destroying Arsenal in the previous round 10-2 on aggregate. The team has also played well in the following matches despite their 1-0 loss to Hoffenheim. In that match, despite their conceding an early goal, the team kept pressuring the opposition but ultimately failed to score an equalizer despite threatening several times. Following up that match, Bayern managed to defeat Borussia Dortmund 4-1 in a display of force and power and to remind their midweek opponents, Real Madrid, that Bayern is indeed a force to be reckoned with. If Real Madrid intends to advance to the semi-final they’ll need to bring their A game. Coming into this match they are undefeated in nine straight matches across all competitions. Madrid bring about an interesting challenge. All season we’ve seen Ronaldo’s performances take a slight dip and in this one I think the wise decision would be to fade Ronaldo altogether and focus on other places. On the other end of the ball, Lewandowski has been nothing short of spectacular in recent weeks with goals and assists in nine of his last 12 matches. So where do we go from here?
Thought 1 – Bayern are probably going to win this match. We’ve seen them dismantle Arsenal and are a very formidable opponent in Europe and Germany. While Real Madrid have been good overall this season, they seem to have a little bit of trouble in some matches as evidenced by their recent 1-1 draw with Atletico at home. Beyern will undoubtedly form a challenge. Real will then likely resort to a defensive strategy though they’ve got some injuries.
Thought 2 – With Lewandowski as a potential miss for this match, I would lean towards Muller as the top play, but still, whichever of Robert Lewandowski, $8,800 DK, $10,700 FD or Thomas Muller, $8,300 DK, $8,700 FD gets the start will likely be favored to appear in the majority of teams.
Thought 3 – I still would not rule out Real Madrid scoring any goals, but I would steer clear of Ronaldo and maybe gravitate towards Gareth Bale, $8,100 DK, $10,700 FD or Karim Benzema, $7,300 DK, $11,000 FD. Though both are better options on DK than on FD especially with them being on the road.
Thought 4 – For safe plays from this game, going with defensive mids from Real, like Casemiro, $4,500 DK, $7,500 FD or Luka Modric, $5,500 DK, $7,200 FD would work out on Fanduel or the offensive mids from Bayern like Arjen Robben, $7,200 DK, $9,200 FD who is a good play in either site.
Thought 5 – Marcelo, $4,800 DK, $6,400 FD and Arjen Robben are both viable options to consider, both take corners and a considerable amount of crosses for their teams. Robben is already mentioned earlier, but this corner kick duty and his attacking prowess make him almost a must play in all formats.