UCL Grind Down Quarterfinals: Second Leg
The second leg of the Champions League quarter finals is underway this week and we’ve got some interesting matchups to consider on our way to the semifinals. For DFS we have a two day slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings with some interesting tournaments on both sites. DraftKings especially has a $15K scissor kick with a $40 entry that I’ll probably fire a couple of entries into. So how do we break down this slate? Last week there were some surprising results and some not-so-surprising results.
This week we’re going to face the tough decision on interpreting what the managers will do in the second leg and we’ll also have a look at their weekend matches and see what we can learn from the decisions the managers made leading up to this second leg. As always, the Grind Down will go through these games game by game and give recommendations based on our findings.
Leicester vs Atletico Madrid
The first match to look at is the Leicester vs Atletico Madrid match. The first leg went just as expected with Atleti taking a narrow win while keeping a clean sheet. Diego Simeone rested a good portion of his players in the weekend matchup including Saul, Griezmann, Koke and Gabi which will undoubtedly prove beneficial when they take on the English team away. Craig Shakespeare however chose not to rest anybody and that ultimately may prove the difference between these two teams. Leicester have played much better since Shakespeare took over, but they will have to turn things around after their last two weeks of matches have seen them lose two matches while drawing over the weekend with Crystal Palace (2-2). This match should be in favor of the visitors as Atletico need to just hold to a 0-0 draw or score a single goal to make life very difficult for the Foxes in their quest to a semi-final berth in their first ever Champions League appearance.
Filipe Luis, Defender, $6,200 FD, $5,000 – He’s one of the top defenders in this slate because of his role on this team and how well he’s played in recent weeks. He actually had a goal and assist over the weekend against Osasuna in La Liga. Last week he actually played very well as part of the Atletico offense and threatened Leicester constantly, but couldn’t break through with a goal or assist. He did end up with 11 DK points and 17.5 FD points which were serviceable. If we consider that to be his floor and with the upside of goals or assists then Luis is a worthy target.
Koke, Midfielder, $6,800 FD, $6,700 DK – While Koke and Gabi both are priced very similarly, and Gabi had the higher fantasy output, Koke I believe is the higher upside and floor player. Koke took four shots last time out against Leicester and will likely take a few more in this one. Koke also has crosses and tackles upside that can be useful on DK and he creates chances for his teammates which is useful on FD. The expectation is that he’ll get over 100 total touches and the majority of those will be in the Leicester half.
Antoine Griezmann, Forward, $12,000 FD, $8,600 DK – The sixth highest priced forward on DK and the third highest priced forward on FD makes Griezmann a tough player to select, especially when there is reason to like other forwards better. But Griezmann takes penalties for this team, and he’s a solid part of the offense who does almost everything on the pitch. He’s also going to have an easier time trying to exploit the Huth suspension and the fact that Wes Morgan is just now coming back from injury and could be rusty. While I’m not taking Griezmann, I think he’s going to be a major part of this game and could easily score two goals to propel his team to the semi-finals.
Kasper Schmeichel, Goalkeeper, $7,200 FD, $4,600 DK – Schmeichel is in the perfect spot to get lots of shots and potential saves. With saves counting for so much on FanDuel, it’s no surprise that he’s very expensive there. But with the win being a major portion of the DK algorithm, he’s unlikely to get the win making his price lower there. However, his price is low enough that you can take him in both cash and tournament games and try to fit him into your teams. His low price tag will actually allow you to stack your team in other positions.
Daniel Drinkwater, Midfielder, $6,800 FD, $3,300 DK – Drinkwater is a FD option only. I would not take him on DK as he doesn’t provide much offensive options, but he will be in a great spot here to get defensive stats from the defensive midfield position for this team that is expected to defend and try to rely on the creativity of its offensive options to score a goal and give themselves a chance to progress to the semifinal. Drinkwater also got the rest against Palace over the weekend indicating how important he is to this team’s fortunes in this match.
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
The red card and the impending suspension of Javi Martinez completely changed the complexion of this matchup and we expect that the second half of this match will repeat once more here in Madrid. Real will play host to this Bayern team and will likely come away with the win and find themselves a place in the final four. Madrid are also the in form squad with no losses in almost two months, meanwhile, Bayern have failed to win in three of their last four matches. This match screams Madrid win, but it also indicates that Bayern should succeed in scoring a goal at least, which eliminates the possibilities of any clean sheets in this one.
Karim Benzema, Forward, $11,300 FD, $7,000 DK – It’s hard to overlook Benzema’s price tag on DK where he is just $7K and could easily score a hat-trick on this team as the center forward. Last time he played 83 minutes and took 4 shots with 2 on target, with three of those shots coming in the second half after the ejection of Martinez. I expect him to continue to be productive and to potentially score a goal or two. Of course, Ronaldo is another player to consider, but I won’t need to write him up since he’s a well known commodity, if you can afford him, get him into your lineup.
James Rodriguez, Midfield, $7,200 FD, $7,000 DK – If James gets the start then he’s going to get a lot of opportunities in the attacking midfield as the team tries to win the match and come away with a solid performance against a tough Bayern team. James should take the chances that will be vacated with the absence of Gareth Bale. If James doesn’t start, then expect Alvaro Morata to get the start who would also be a great play to consider in this matchup.
Robert Lewandowski, Forward, $10,200 FD, $8,300 DK – It’s going to come down to whether Lewandowski gets the start or not, but if he starts he’s been in great form and will be attacking relentlessly as his team needs to score 2 goals to make up a 2-1 home loss in order to avoid elimination. Lewandowski, Muller, and Robben will all come into play this week as the team tries to get their groove back.
Philip Lahm, Defender, $6,000 FD, $3,500 DK – He’s going to try not to make this his last UCL game ever as he’s set to retire at the end of the season, so Lahm has extra motivation to make this match count. This could translate to offensive production that could lead to assists, chances created or crosses that could help give us plenty of fantasy points that make his price tag an easy one to consider him in your lineups.
Monaco vs Borussia Dortmund
The first leg was overshadowed by the bomb that exploded on the Dortmund team bus that resulted in an injury to Bartra who had to have wrist surgery the following day. The game went ahead the next day much to the dismay of plenty of the Dortmund players and the match ended up in a shootout with Monaco coming away as 3-2 winners away from home. Now the venue switches to France where Monaco are undefeated at home this season in this tournament and have not lost in the local Ligue 1 since December 18th. Dortmund on the other hand lost their last away match against Benfica 1-0 and they lost two of their last three away matches and have generally proven to be sub-par on the road this season. This match should go in favor of this Monaco squad who have a great chance at winning this one and advancing to the semi-final of this prestigious tournament.
Kylian Mbappe, Forward, $10,400 FD, $8,100 DK – Mbappe has been great. He scored twice in the first leg and has been tremendous for this team in what is his first season with the first team. The 18 year old has a great future ahead of him and will continue to be a major offensive player for years to come. Expect him to continue attacking in this one and score at least a goal or two in this match against a Dortmund team that has proven the inability to stop goals when it really matters.
Bernardo Silva, Midfielder, $6,800 FD, $6,600 DK – He’s going to get crosses and be aprt of the offense as this team attempts to get the win and move on to the semi-final. Over the weekend he took 3 shots and had 9 crosses while drawing 5 fouls as the team came back from a 1-0 deficit to win 2-1.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Forward, $10,900 FD, $9,000 DK – Aubameyang comes in as the top scorer for this team and could possibly be the top scorer on the slate if this match is as open as everybody expects it to. This is shaping up to be a great match to stack as many players from both sides as possible as there should be goals and there really isn’t anybody on the Monaco side that can truly stop Aubameyang.
Marco Reus, Midfielder, $7,900 FD, $8,000 DK – When he returns to the lineup this week, Reus will attempt to change the outcome for this team’s favor. I do think he’s going to be a real big factor in this one as he’s likely to get set piece duty if he starts and what we should expect from Reus is to be involved in the attack and end up on the score sheet in one way or another in what is expected to be a high scoring affair.
Barcelona vs Juventus
The final match of the quarter final is the one between Barcelona and Juventus which features two teams with great ambitions. Juventus want to take advantage of their 3-0 first leg win and Barcelona want to repeat their great escape from the round of 16 after coming back from an even bigger deficit against Paris St. Germain. Juventus are a better defensive team and thus won’t make it easy for Barca to come back in this one. The likes of Messi won’t settle though and this match should prove to be fireworks as both teams are going to attack, with the emphasis from Barca to score a goal early to try to put the pressure. Of course, if Juventus manage a goal early then they make Barca’s task that much harder as they’ll have to score five goals to overcome an away Juve goal.
Lionel Messi, Forward, $12,100 FD, $10,600 DK – I can’t possibly look at this team and not think that Messi will be a major factor in their offense. And he’s priced accordingly. He’s my number 1 rated forward on the slate and the one that I will make sure to fit in my teams on both sites since I cannot fathom how Barca return from this 3-0 deficit without his direct involvement. Short of an injury Messi should get 5+ shots and have some great looks for a goal or two.
Neymar, Forward, $11,000 FD, $10,200 DK – Not a lot of people will roster Neymar because he has a red ‘O’ next to his name. However, if you fit him into your team and he gets the start (news on Tuesday morning is that he’s going to play) then you might get an underowned part of the MSN trio when Barca need to score lots of goals to make up for their first leg defeat. Of course, Suarez is another option to consider and you could easily fit him into your teams.
Gianluigi Buffon, Goalkeeper, $7,400 FD, $3,800 DK – Despite his advanced age, Buffon is still one of the best goalkeepers in the world and will be very tough to get past this week. He’s going to face his toughest challenge all season, but this team has not allowed more than 3 goals all season and his defense is solid and protects him making him likely to come away with minimal damage and thus making him fantasy relevant.
Gonzalo Higuain, Forward, $10,100 FD, $7,200 DK – If Juve score just one goal (and they have a very good chance to do just that), then Barca will have to score 5 goals. This makes Higuain the most likely player to do that scoring. He scored twice this past weekend and while he failed to score against Barca in the first leg he still ended up with 10 DK points and 28.25 FD points thanks to his heavy involvement in the offense. Look for him to continue his attacking in this one.