UCL Grind Down: Round of 16
With Champions League soccer coming back we have a unique set of matches that are different from our weekly go-tos. This week we have two 2-game slates on Tuesday and Wednesday. As of this writing, DraftKings is offering a four game slate that spans across both Tuesday and Wednesday, meanwhile FanDuel decided to go with the two game slate Tuesday, and will undoubtedly add a 2 game slate for Wednesday as well. This is likely due to the lack of late-swap on FanDuel and the existence of it on DK.
Nevertheless, this Grind Down will cover the four games for this week’s Champions League contests. It’s important to remember that this is just the first leg in a two leg round of 16. This week we get half the first leg matches, while the next week we get the second half of the first leg. The schedule then rests for a week, then returns with a reverse of the fixtures. So it’s important to remember this when considering the level of motivation these teams have. Some teams may choose to play more conservatively in the first leg of a knock out round. The issue is even more pronounced when you have two top tier teams playing each other. Normally, the first leg (and sometimes the second leg) are so tight and close that the goals will be limited, and the action will dominate the midfield.
Paris Saint Germain vs Barcelona
PSG come into the round of 16 on a very high note. The team has been dominating in all competitions with just 4 total losses on the season across all competitions. They went through their group stage contests with three wins and three draws and finished second to Arsenal which resulted in their drawing Barcelona in the round of 16. It’s unfortunate really, as PSG are routinely one of the best 4 or 8 teams in Europe and Barcelona are usually a top 4 team and it will be unfortunate to see one of them exit the competition so soon. Nevertheless, the competition dictates that after two matches (home and home) one of these teams will go home and other will move on in the competition.
Logic says that PSG will be the unlucky ones, as Barcelona boast a big three of Messi, Suarez, and Neymar (MSN), but PSG have recently bolstered their lines as well with the addition of Julian Draxler in the transfer window. Draxler comes in from Wolfsburg, after having a disappointing season there where he managed only 1 goal and four assists in the Bundesliga. However, he’s already far eclipsed that total with 4 goals with the French giants so far. PSG still boasts the likes of Cavani, and Angel Di Maria. So where do we go with our fantasy dollars?
Angel Di Maria, $7,000 DK, $7,800 FD – ADM might be severely underpriced given his contributions on this team. He is coming off two straight games with 20+ DK fantasy points and while one of those games was a result of a 21 cross outing against Lille, it showcases just how dependent the team is on his “wide” performance. PSG was unable to secure the win in that match until late and relied heavily on Di Maria and Serge Aurier ($4,900 DK, $5,900 FD to deliver the crosses to open up the game. It’s unlikely that anybody gets 20+ crosses in this one, but I can see Di Maria approaching double digit crosses and 2-3 shots, with the potential for a goal or assist.
Edinson Cavani, $7,000 DK, $10,500 FD – Cheaper than any of the MSN trio on both sites and one of the top goal scorers in Europe, Cavani is in a great position here to score a goal or two. He has 6 goals in 6 Champions League games, and 25 goals in 23 Ligue 1 games. There is obviously no guarantee that he would score, but he his recent game log is littered with goal scoring days. And on a slate where the goals might be at a premium, he might be one forward who’s worth breaking from the Barca trio for.
Lionel Messi, $11,200 DK, $13,200 FD – It will always be easy to say “Messi is a good play” But the hard question to ask is “Is Messi a good fade?” That is not so easy to answer as a lot goes into it. Plenty of Messi does on the pitch isn’t translatable to DFS scoring. He’s arguably the best player in the world and his mere presence on the pitch changes the dynamics of the match. Over the weekend he led his team to a 6-0 win over Alaves but only had a single goal and no assists. Yet, if you watched the match you’ll see that he had a hand (foot) in 4 of those 6 goals and he was the driving catalyst behind the scoring for this Barca team. So what do you do? I am of the opinion that in this game, on the road against a PSG team that will try to slow him down and get physical with him, you might be able to afford to pass on Messi. But don’t be shocked if he scored a hat-trick as nobody can truly stop him when he’s ‘on’
Neymar, $9,900 DK, $10,800 FD – The question between Neymar and Suarez as a secondary option for Barcelona just proves how good of a team this is. Suarez is arguably the best number 9 in all of football, and thus not selecting him here ahead of Neymar should be grounds for dismissal. Yet, what makes Neymar the more interesting fantasy option is that he can shift into a play maker role giving him more fantasy points in terms of crosses (he takes corners), shots and chances created (for FanDuel). But as a CYA point, taking Suarez here is a good bet as well.
All that said, I wouldn’t go too heavily on Barcelona, they are on the road against a strong PSG team, this game is likely ending in a 1-1 or 2-1 decision either way to be settled in the return fixture at the Camp Nou.
So if you don’t go heavy on the forwards from Barcelona, that means that there might be some opportunities from the defenders to consider for both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Kevin Trapp, Goalkeeper, $4,500 DK, $6,100 FD – Despite being at home, Trapp and PSG are underdogs to the mighty Barca. So this might be the opportunity to take a chance on Trapp and see if he can stop a few shots from the vaunted Barcelona offense.
Presenel Kimpembe, Defender, $2,500 DK, $5,000 – He’s going to likely start down the middle here this week against the best offensive trio in the world. He’s a center back, but can also play on the wing. The young defender has been compared by his teammates to Vincent Kompany in his ability. This will be the biggest match he’s ever played in, and it will be seen if he can keep up with the likes of Messi. However, at just $5K on FanDuel, you should expect him to get some tackles, clearances, blocks and interceptions making him a very adequate option on defense over there.
Gerard Pique, Defender, $3,700 DK, $6,800 FD – The Barcelona veteran defensive stalwart is an option on FanDuel where the defensive stats can propel a player up to 20+ fantasy points. What Pique offers is the ability to get clearances, tackles and interceptions as he’ll be charged with trying to slow down the on-fire Edinson Cavani. Just being in the way might lead to a 10 point minimum outing, and with his skills as a defender, 20+ points isn’t out of the question. On DK he’s likely to result in 5-10 points with not much upside.
Benfica vs Borussia Dortmund
The second match on Tuesday features the Portuguese league leaders facing the German Borussia Dortmund. Benfica are currently leading their local league by a single point over Porto and enter this one with some confidence as they’ve held 4 clean sheets in their last 6 games overall, and four of their last six at home in that same span. Of course, facing a Dortmund team that is coming off a loss to the bottom dwelling team Dortmund over the weekend, they have some confidence in this one. So what’s going to happen in this match? The odds makers seem to think it will be a close one with Borussia Dortmund a slight favorite. In fact, the odds for a draw appear to be greater than the odds of Benfica winning. I tend to agree with that assessment. Benfica averaged a little over 1 goal a game in the group stages, and in the local league they average almost a point higher, indicating their likelihood to play more conservative on the continental scene. Borussia Dortmund on the other hand have some superb talents on their roster like Patrick Aubemayang (the top goal scorer in Germany), Marco Reus, Ousmane Dembele (the top assist man in Germany) and American Christian Pulisic. And while Benfica only allowed 10 goals in the group stages of the UCL competition, they didn’t face any offenses that were as stout as Dortmund, so the challenge will be very real here. Dortmund on the other hand ended up in first place ahead of Real Madrid who they drew 2-2 with in both rounds of matches. This game will likely feature some goals, and the most likely culprits could be the Germans.
Jonas, $6,200 DK, $6,100 FD – He’s facing a late fitness test and his back has been bothering him, but if he gets the start then Jonas will be in a great position to put pressure on the back line of the Dortmund team. If Jonas does start then Benfica then has the flexibility to start him up front with Mitroglou ($5,800 DK, $6,300 FD, and that would allow for both of them to play off each other. It also makes room for the midfield to feature Carrillo who scored a goal.
Pizzi, $5,400 DK, $6,700 FD – Pizzi will likely take over the corner kick and playmaking duties vacated by the absence of Zivkovic who is suspended from this match. Pizzi’s cheap price makes him an option on a slate where you’re trying to find any edge you can.
Lubomir Fejsa, $5,500 FD – He’s a FanDuel only option because of his ability to deliver defensive stats in tackles, interceptions, clearances and blocks. You could also add Lisandro Lopez or Luisao who both average over 3 clearances a game and whichever of the defenders start at center defense have the best chance of getting some of those points since one of them will be tracking Aubemayang all game.
For the other side of the ball, there are plenty of offensive options to take note of.
Patrick Aubameyang, $8,400 DK, $11,100 FD – The star forward is rumored to make a move to Real Madrid over the summer, but as of now, he’s still with the German outfit and he’s still set for a big season as they try to make a march in the Champions League. Aubameyang is now at 17 goals in the Bundesliga, and has 4 goals from the group stages of this competition. The team will be looking to march through to the next round with a strong showing in the first match. He’s priced much cheaper than the Barcelona trio, and doesn’t have to share the spoils with anybody near as talented making him a great option for both FanDuel and DraftKings in all formats.
Ousmane Dembele, $7,600 DK, $9,000 FD – The attacking midfielder has been the top assist man in the Bundesliga and loves playing next to Aubameyang. He was rested this past weekend and will be primed up for a big match on the road.
Raphael Guerreiro, $4,900 DK, $6,000 FD – He’s listed as a defender on FanDuel which makes for an interesting change as he’s playing as a midfielder and is the main crossing player on this team. When the team decides to go wide (which they might in this match to break down the defense) they look to him for corners and open play crosses. While he scored a goal over the weekend, he’s unlikely to do so again as he hadn’t scored since September prior to this one, but he does provide some value in crossing, chances created and shots.
Bayern Munich vs Arsenal
With Bayern playing host to Arsenal Wednesday, we have the biggest favorite on the board for this slate, though both Wednesday matches feature big favorites, Bayern are the ones that are playing at home. But let’s talk about the visitors first. Arsenal are coming off a weekend where they defeated a stubborn Hull team 2-0 despite Hull putting on a good showing. They did expose some weaknesses in this Arsenal squad, the same weaknesses that Chelsea and Watford took advantage of the previous two game days where Arsenal were losers. The prediction here is that Bayern, who have been in top form for most of the season will exploit the same mistakes of Arsene Wenger’s team and will ultimately lead to Arsenal exiting this tournament with little fanfare. In consequence, this would mean that the main goal for this Arsenal team will be to return to England with minimal damage done in order to attempt to qualify, this would mean some defensive play in hopes of exploiting the seemingly weak road play that Bayern has shown so far this season.
And while Arsenal have been mired with their own defensive problems, their opponents, Bayern have been playing very well at home in recent weeks where they’ve scored 27 and allowed 5 en route of winning 7 and drawing 3 while losing none in the local Bundesliga. So which players do we like for the home team?
Douglas Costa, $7,400 DK, $7,800 FD – Costa is a reliable player on this Bayern team as he tends to be their wing player who takes corners, establishes the attack and uses his creativity and speed to bypass the defenders to create chances for his teammates. Costa doesn’t score much on this team, but he gets assists as well as shots. He’s a cheap option to get exposure to this squad on Wednesday.
Robert Lewandowski, $8,800 DK, $10,700 FD – On DK he’s another alternative to MSN and on FanDuel he’s on a different slate so you’ll have to decide between him and Ronaldo (more on him later) makes for an interesting selection. Lewandowski isn’t the only top striker on his team either, as Muller, and Robben are both very capable of scoring multiple goals in a match making it difficult to go with an all out Bayern stack because you never know where the goals will come from. That said, in recent weeks, Lewandowski has been the source of those goals and he’s been great at delivering on that.
Worth considering as well are all the players likely to line up on the right side Arjen Robben and Phillipp Lahm who both will attack Arsenal’s vulnerable defense likely headed by Monreal on the right flank.
For Arsenal, Petr Cech ($3,900 DK, $6,200 FD) is a potential option only because this is the cheapest you’ll ever find him on a slate, and he’ll face plenty of shots from a loaded Bayern team.
Another defensive option to consider is Shkordan Mustafi ($6,100 FD) only on FanDuel, however, because he’s likely to get clearances and tackles as he looks to stay with the talented Mr. Lewandowski.
Elsewhere on this Arsenal team, the biggest differential is Alexis Sanchez ($7,800 DK, $9,700 FD) who is facing a tough keeper, but is a supremely talented attacking option that will be very under owned on both sites due to the depth of the Forward position in this slate.
One last option to consider on FanDuel for Arsenal is Granit Xhaka ($6,200) who is cheap over there and could provide the defensive stats from the midfield as he sits back to try to absorb the attack and start the counter for Arsenal.
Real Madrid vs Napoli
Our last match of the week brings us Real Madrid hosting Napoli of Italy. The Spanish giants qualified from the group stages despite not keeping a single clean sheet throughout the entirety of the competition so far, and with Ronaldo being limited to just 2 goals in the entire group stages. Nevertheless, in the Spanish La Liga, Real Madrid are currently in first place with 2 games in hand but they have kept just two clean sheets in five games since the turn of the calendar. And most recently have allowed an Osasuna team to score to level the game before coming back and winning 3-1. Their opponents, Napoli, are big underdogs in this one, but they will not be pushovers. They currently sit in third place in the Italian league where they boast a league leading 57 goals scored in just 24 matches. They also had the lucky group stages draw that they managed to emerge victorious from with 11 points in 6 matches. This game of course will be much tougher for the Italian team as they will have to contend with Cristiano Ronaldo, Benzema, James Rodriguez and Gareth Bale (if he’s healthy enough), where they hadn’t had to deal with any of these types of players in the group stages. In fact, they haven’t faced a team with this many world class players since losing to Juventus back in October. In that game, the matchup seemed even between the teams as Napoli were able to hold their own but failing to come away with any points after conceding a goal at 70 minutes from Gonzalo Higuain.
Toni Kroos, $6,900 DK, $9,000 FD – Priced at a steep premium on FanDuel, Kroos might be a better option on DK instead. He’s going to get some stats on both sites as he’s one of the main crossing players on this team and also averages close to 3 key passes a game (key passes being directly correlated to chances created). He’s been one of the top assist men in the Spanish La Liga and with his team being an offensive juggernaut, he’s in good shape to deliver more of those valuable assists.
Cristiano Ronaldo, $10,900 DK, $13,100 FD – Despite only scoring two goals in the group stages, many DFS players will be asking themselves, “Do you Ronaldo?”. This may be a week where the answer is not that tough to figure out. He’s on a slate that includes MSN, Lewandowski, Muller, Alexis Sanchez, and Aubameyang. All of these players have the ability to score multiple goals on anybody. So fading Ronaldo isn’t a bad idea if you decide the price tag is too steep. However, the matchup really does favor him over many of the others and for that reason alone, I suspect he’ll get back to scoring goals in this matchup.
Lucas Vazquez, $7,100 DK, $6,800 FD – Priced this low, Vazquez has proven to be a big part of this Madrid team in recent weeks as he’s taken crosses, shots, scored goals and delivered assists. He might go over looked since many won’t consider him with the variety of options available, but Vazquez is my wild card pick to score this week.
On the other side of the ball, there will be plenty of reasons to ignore Napoli, but that’s all the more reason for you to target them in your tournament lineups.
Dries Mertens, $7,100 DK, $6,900 FD – with 16 goals scored in the Serie A, and four more scored in the Champions League, Mertens is in a great position to score some goals if given the opportunity. He’s a talented player with great finishing skills. He likely gets the start at the center forward in a 4-3-2-1, flanked by Giaccherini and Insigne who both also make good tournament picks as they can poach a goal or assist against a weak Real Madrid defense.
Faouzi Ghoulam, $5,000 DK, $6,500 FD – With Madrid likely to be vulnerable to attacks, that means that the full backs for Napoli would get opportunities to push forward. That plays perfectly for Ghoulam’s game as he loves to bomb forward and throw crosses down the middle. This opens up his ability for assists and chances created (FanDuel specific stat).
Lorenzo Insigne, $5,900 DK, $6,600 FD – He has 23 shots in his last 5 games, averaging over 4 shots a game. This makes him an ideal candidate for a breakout game as he’s not afraid to take the shots against anybody. He’s not going to hit the target for most of them, but he does have the ability to score goals as proven by his seven goals scored in Serie A this season.