UCL Grind Down: Tuesday, December 6th
It’s the final matchday of the group stages for Champions League. After this week half the teams are eliminated, all third place teams move to the Europa League, and the last place teams get to go home to their supporters and regroup for the domestic tournaments and try to make it back next season.
For now though, we have eight matches on Tuesday that we’ll want to target. The Tuesday matchups are particularly juicy as they feature Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid, Manchester City, and PSG as the elite teams that everybody loves to target. But a closer look at the teams reveals that there is more to this slate than just the superstars as there should be some teams to go after and others that we can just ignore. So this week, much like every other, I’ll break down the slate game by game and hope to help point you in the direction necessary to achieve success for your DFS lineups!
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PSG vs Ludogorets
With PSG playing at home, they’re looking to secure first place in the group with a matchup against Ludogorets, meanwhile, Arsenal travel to Basel in an attempt to get a win and hope for a Paris loss that propels Arsenal into first, but the likely scenario is that both teams win, leaving the only intrigue from this matchup is whether Ludogorets manage to get a result at least as equal to the one achieved by Basel against Arsenal as promotion to the Europa league will come down to goal difference. For this matchup, I believe that Ludogorets face a difficult task and as such I would avoid all players from that squad for attacking purposes.
Defensive purposes are a different story. I wouldn’t target the goalkeeper (Stoyanov, $3,600 DK, $6,100 FD) on FanDuel because of his high price and the fact that he’s not at home. There are other keepers I would look to who are at home and real cheap that won’t necessitate taking Stoyanov. On FanDuel however, you CAN take any of the defenders in this matchup as they’ll see a large number of defensive stats and opportunities. Of the defenders expected to start for Ludogorets, Cicinho ($3,800 DK, $4,200 FD) carries the most upside and the cheapest price tag for what he delivers for the Bulgarian side.
On the other side PSG might name a rotated squad, but that is unlikely given their desire to finish atop their group ahead of Arsenal. The team did lose their weekend matchup with Montpellier and will try to rebound from that failed effort especially since the Bulgarians did put the pressure on them in the counter attack in the reverse fixture. Of the players on PSG, I believe the top fantasy prospects belong to Angel Di Maria ($8,800 DK, $9,200 FD) who takes corner kicks and open play crosses for the Parisians. Another player to consider is Edison Cavani who takes penalty kicks for the team and has taken the most free kick shots. He’s also scored 10 goals so far for PSG making him their top scorer on the season as he works his way to replace the presence of Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
Basel vs Arsenal
Arsenal visit Basel in a match that they will try to win to put the pressure on PSG to challenge for the top spot in the group and have an easier matchup in the round of 16. Basel has the makings of a team that can put up a fight though. They scored a goal against PSG at home and the French champions needed a 90th minute goal from Meunier to walk away victorious from the bout. Arsenal on the other hand have proven susceptible to surprise defeat under Arsene Wenger and could be surprised in this one. There is some narrative street here as Granit Xhaka goes against his brother Taulant Xhaka as well as his former team, and along with Elneny have the narrative street factor in their favor. Unfortunately, all three of them play defensive midfield which makes their likelihood of scoring extremely low.
For Basel, I’m partial to the goalkeeper Tomas Vaclik ($4,600 DK, $6,200 FD) as well as taking a flier on Matias Delgado ($5,400 DK, $5,800 FD). Delgado has taken the most shots for this team so far this campaign, he also has 9 goals in the local league (the same total as Doumbia, but cheaper and more likely to accumulate auxiliary stats.
On the Arsenal side, Alexis Sanchez ($9,600 DK, $11,200 FD) had a great weekend where he scored a hat-trick and has now contributed in 24 goals in 24 games for Arsenal. The team is flying right now and will look to tackle Basel early and often and put pressure on them to defend. This will result in high totals for most of the Arsenal top players. The concern with Arsenal’s players lies in them being on the road and them potentially being resigned to their fate if PSG take an early lead as the team might choose to rest key players to prepare for this weekend’s EPL contest with Stoke. If you do choose to go with Arsenal, then the fullbacks, Bellerin and Gibbs, and the midfielders, Walcott, Ozil and the forward Giroud would all make for good options if they get the start. But if I had to choose just one, it would be Sanchez.
Benfica vs Napoli
In a seemingly even matchup that is expected to be low scoring, I’ll focus on the defenders and goalkeepers in this one. Also, attacking midfielders and wingers can carry special value here as teams tend to tighten the reigns and go out to the wings to deliver crosses. This puts Eduardo Salvio ($6,900 DK, $6,000) as a key player to target. He scored a goal in the reverse fixture and has 3 goals in the tournament so far. Moreover, he contributes in multiple avenues making him a very valuable commodity for the price. Benfica are playing at home and will be looking to secure the win in this one giving them direct entry into the next round. If you think that Napoli can flex their offensive muscles in this one, then you should take a look at the Benfica defenders and defensive midfielders. Chief among them is Lubomir Fejsa ($3,600 DK, $5,000 FD) who carries more value on FanDuel than on DraftKings given his talent at accumulating defensive stats for his team. The team also relies on Pizzi ($7,100 DK, $7,000 FD) for corners and crosses from open play, he averages 3.5 key passes a game in the Liga NOS for Benfica, but has yet to deliver an assist in the Champions League, will that time come this week?
On the other side of the coin, Napoli come into the matchup with a chance to come away as first place in the group with a win or draw in this one. They also are coming off a great weekend where they dominated Inter Milan and won 3-0 in Serie A. Lorenzo Insigne ($6,800 DK, $6,100 FD) will probably have the best chances for Napoli in this one. He’s coming off two matches here he scored goals in Serie A and will be a good target for this team. Another player to consider is Manolo Gabbiadini ($7,400 DK, $4,800 FD) who is a great play on FanDuel because of his center forward role and the fact that he’s so cheap over there because he has yet to score a goal in the Champions league making him an ideal underowned option to consider.
On defense, one of the better full backs to consider on Tuesday is Faouzi Ghoulam ($5,800 DK, $6,500 FD) who is practically playing as a winger for this team providing crosses, corners and assists and reaching double digit points with ease. I likely would stay away from him in this matchup as he will be too expensive on a team that needs just a draw and won’t attack much to advance to the next round.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Besiktas
Besiktas, who currently sit third in their group visit Dynamo Kyiv have a decent chance to make it into the knockout stages of the competition. All they have to do is defeat Kyiv on the road to guarantee themselves a spot in the top two in the group. For the Turkish team, they have grown very reliant on Midfielder Ricardo Quaresma ($7,700 DK, $5,800 FD), the Portuguese midfielder has 3 goals in the Champions League, which is three more than he does in the Super Lig. He does however excel at providing assists for his teammates as he has 6 total in both competitions. He’s the main penalty kick taker as well as the main corner kick taker for this squad making him a valuable contributor to this squad.
This match is a good place to look for value as Adriano ($4,100 DK, $3,600 FD) is listed as a defender on both sites which makes him extremely valuable. He’s priced super cheap for a defender, but he’s actually mis-categorized in position as he’s been playing as an advanced winger in recent matches. He’s going to be a staple in most sharp lineups and should be in your lineups as well.
On the other side, you can target Yarmolenko as a potential play on Kyiv as he double digit upside with a goal or assist. He’s also the main corner kick taker and the top open play crosser on the team. He’s priced at $7.8K on DK and $6.4K on FD making him a decent option to target on both sites.
Barcelona vs Borussia Monchengladbach
When Barcelona host Borussia M’gladbach on Tuesday they come in as the guaranteed first place finishers. Because of this, there is no pressure on them. There is however a feeling that Messi will try to get at least two goals to match Ronaldo for the most goals scored in a group stage at 11, if Messi scores a hat-trick he is then the new holder of the record. The team plays this match without their regular corner kick taker Neymar. Barcelona however doesn’t take a lot of corners to warrant taking a chance on whoever takes the corners in place of Neymar, but we do know that this means that Messi and Suarez both should see some upside as they get more shots between them. Moreover, the team might have a value forward step in to play in place of Neymar who then might become a must play if you want exposure to this team. However, I do highly suggest taking a chance on Suarez or Messi, and my choice would be Messi.
For defenders, I would consider either of the Barca full backs on both FanDuel and DraftKings, they are expensive defenders, and are a good way to differentiate from the other high priced players that will be higher owned such as Alaba and Ghoulam and Aurier.
For BMG, I don’t feel comfortable with many of their players. I don’t think the team will be able to overcome the Spanish giants in this one and will probably end in defeat with little possession to show for it. The only player to consider, who has been playing decently lately is Thorgan Hazard who will take some corners for this team, but likely won’t reach a large fantasy point total in the process.
Manchester City vs Celtic
City play host to Celtic in this matchup needing just a win and to exact revenge on their surprise 3-3 draw against Brendan Rodgers’s team in the first leg. City play this match without Fernandinho in the central defense position and will likely look to alter their lineup a bit. They will likely employ a 4-2-3-1 with two players in the double pivot position. Whichever players end up in that position will carry the least amount of upside. Though they can still score goals if given an opportunity. Aguero should lead the line and Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and David Silva should all get their shots in this one. Kevin De Bruyne might be my top midfielder overall given that City will likely control possession the majority of the time and KDB will deliver 10-15 crosses in this one. Aguero also has an outside chance at 2-3 goals if he stays on the pitch that long.
For Celtic, there really aren’t a lot of options I’ll look to exploit in this one as this team will be on the defensive the majority of the time. On FanDuel, you could try to take a chance on Emilio Izaguirre who’s priced at just $5,400 and leads the teams in tackles and would end up with interceptions, clearances, blocks and passes to his point total. But there are other options you can go with that are safer.
Bayern Munich vs Atletico Madrid
For two teams that have already qualified and already know which place they’ll end up in, there is likely very little at stake here for either of these teams. Atletico guaranteed their promotion as first in the group, Bayern WILL be in second place. I will likely not target many players from either team as I can see a boring 0-0 affair in this one culminating in a lot of disappointing fantasy results.
If you do choose to go after some fantasy performers, I would look at Bayern as the likely source of fantasy points. Robben has been on fire lately, and Lewandowski and Muller are always capable of producing positive results. Costa takes corners for this team.
The risk is that Atletico is one of the top defensive teams in Europe making it less likely that Bayern break through. If that’s the case, you can take a chance on whoever starts in goalkeeper for Atletico. But there is a chance that both teams rotate some players in order to give players some rest and get some experience for their bench.
PSV Eindhoven vs Rostov
PSV need a win against this Rostov team. They will then leapfrog them into the Europa League as the third place team and Rostov will be left out in the cold. There are a few players to target here
Luuk De Jong for PSV should be the top forward on this team and the most likely goal scorer. He’s priced moderately at $7.8K on FD and $6.6K on DK. Also worth considering is Santiago Arias for PSV as a defender who will likely take the crosses and corner kicks for this team given the injuries to Jetro Willems and Guardado who will both miss this matchup. Arias is cheap at $4.9K on FD and $4.3K on DK.
On the other end you can target the Rostov keeper as he’s bound to face plenty of shots and could end up with a bunch of saves, Soslan Dzhanaev is priced at just $4,100 on DraftKings and a bit more at $5,700 on FanDuel, but he has plenty of save upside and could reach double digits just on saves alone.