UCL Grind Down: Tuesday November 1st

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We have another week of Champions League. The Tuesday slate is what we’re tackling here today as we gear up for what should be a fun first day of Round 4 of the Champions League group stages. For those unfamiliar, the group stages consist of 8 groups with each group composed of 4 teams. The teams play a round robin style mini tournament where the top two teams qualify for the champions league Round of 16, while the third place finishing teams move over to the Europa League tournament where they jump into the knock-off stages of that competition. The teams play each other team in their group twice, once home, and once away. And matchday’s 3 and 4 are the same matchups, just reversed venue. And with only two weeks between the two matchdays, we can really use matchday 3 as a guide to analyze matchday 4. Which is what I’ll do today. I’ll go through each of the 8 games and break down what happened last time, which players excelled, what I suspect the managers will do as a counter, and finally, what I predict will happen this match. It won’t be an easy task, But my goal through this is to help you figure out who to roster and whether or not recency bias should play into effect.

As for extra content, I added a “Rankings” section in my marketplace package, and I’ll be adding some Rankings for each position and which players to target.

Let’s begin the games


Atletico Madrid vs FC Rostov

Atletico Madrid -678
FC Rostov +2425
Draw +817

What Happened Last Time

Atletico went into Russia and defeated FC Rostov by a narrow 1-0 result, except the match was anything but. Atletico had a 14-2 shot advantage and 937-546 touch advantage. Rostov did have the edge defensively with 31 successful tackles to 16 for Madrid which means that Madrid just didn’t have to tackle in order to gain possession as Rostov lost possession 28 times. Left winger Yannick Carrasco scored the winning goal with an assist from Fernando Torres who really just got in the way of Juan Fran’s excellent cross into the six yard box. Torres really should have put that away, but instead it looks like he mishandled the first touch and was fortunate that the ball ended at the feet of Carrasco. Other than that, Rostov look like they held on for dear life to just lose 1-0 at home.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

Rostov have played two matches in the Russian Premier League and weren’t able to score making it 4 matches since they’ve been able to convert a shot on target. The team is also now down to 7th place in the Russian Premier League. Their away form is particularly bad as they haven’t won an away match since the start of the season!

Atletico on the other hand had mixed results in the Spanish La Liga as they lost on the road to Sevilla 1-0 following their away win at Rostov, but they capped that with a 4-2 win at home against Malaga. A match which saw them concede a red card and get two braces from both Carrasco and Gameiro. Griezmann recorded two assists and got to sit early as he only played 61 minutes making him ready for this week’s midweek bout.

What Will Happen Tuesday

Atletico will advance to the next stage of the competition with a win here as they’ve already collected 9 of 9 points heading into this one. There is little doubt that they won’t do it, as this team is one of the top defensive teams in Europe facing a team that can’t score away from home (or anywhere really as they average 1 goal a game). Rostov lost 5-0 in their opening match to Bayern Munich and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar result this week.

For this reason, I could advocate stacking Atletico as Carrasco (M/F, $7,700), Correa (M/F, $7,500) and Griezmann (M/F, $9,100) get the top nods, the full backs are absolutely in play, Felipe Luis (D, $5,600) and Juanfran (D, $5,300) both have crossing upside as well as scoring upside. The goalkeeper, Jan Oblak (GK, $6,000) should come away with a clean sheet and win and nothing else. 10 points for 6K won’t cut it, so I’m staying away.

Avoid Rostov, nobody has upside on that team except the goalkeeper Solsan Dzhanaev (GK, $3,600), except on the road and a +2875 underdog does not inspire any sense of safety. I will look elsewhere.


Benfica vs Dynamo Kiev

Benfica -151
Dynamo Kiev +543
Draw +280

What Happened Last Time

Benfica came away with a 2-0 away win in a closely fought matchup, Kiev had their chances but couldn’t convert, specifically Moraes and Gonzalez had the best opportunities from the bunch. Benfica scored through Guedes who earned a PK by mistake from full back Antunes who was too slow to keep up and resulted in tackling him in the box. The behind-the-goal ref called it resulting in the first goal being a PK taken by Salvio, the keeper guessed wrong and Salvio put it away cleanly. The next goal came against the run of play in the middle of the second half, Franco Cervi had his first shot blocked by his teammate Kostas Mitroglou and gathered the rebound and slotted it away. Mitroglou was awarded the assist for that one, but it was a bit fluky.

We did learn that Kiev is a tough opponent and should not be taken lightly, if not for a few breaks this match could have easily ended in a 2-2 draw or even a 3-2 win for Kiev.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

Dynamo dropped points in the Ukranian league in the next match with a 1-1 draw against Olexandria, then managed to get a decisive 4-1 win against Karpaty. From looking at the team sheets in their second match however, it looks as though several key players sat out this one including Moraes, Yarmolenko and Derlis Gonzalez.

Benfica on the other hand continued their excellent run in the Portuguese league with two more wins to add to their already excellent start. And with the exception of the matchday two loss to Napoli are undefeated in their last 23 matches! They ran an offensive clinic in the last two matches controlling possession, shots and goals.

What Will Happen Tuesday

It’s going to be hard to pinpoint the exact team that shows up Tuesday, but my belief is that Kiev will put up a good run, they’ve got their backs against the wall in this one, if they lose, and either Napoli or Besiktas win in the other group match, then Kyiv are eliminated from the competition. Benfica however have been excellent at home and in general as previously mentioned, so the task at hand is hard. If I were building multiple lineups, I would consider Kyiv offensive options including Moraes (F, $6,900), Andriy Yarmolenko (M/F, $8,200) and Derlis Gonzalez (M/F, $5,900) and to a lesser extent Gladkiy (F, $6,000) and Sydorchuk (M, $4,800), however, you enter this matchup with the expectation that other than Yarmolenko who takes corners and crosses, that none of these options would get you double digit points except if they score a goal.

Benfica on the other hand do not give me much pause when looking at their team. While a team stack is unlikely, there are several options that I like on this team that might be in decent prices to allow for stacking some other high octane offense (Barca, wink wink). The full backs in this one Grimaldo (D, $4,500) and Nelisnho (D, $4,200) are decently priced for their potential. Neither are on corners, but they both join in as part of the attack and are capable crossers. They have a floor of about 5-10 points and can reach upside by being involved in a score. You can also take chances on Eduardo Salvio (M/F, $6,900) and Goncalo Guedes (M/F, $6,600) who are both on offensive missions as they have taken an average of 9 shots a game combined between them in their last three. With them being at home, you can easily look to one of them to come away with a score.

The safe play on this team is Pizzi (M/F, $7,100) though as he is the corner kick taker and main crosser on this team. He disappointed in the last UCL fixture with only 2 crosses and now has 4 and 5 fantasy points in his last two in the tournament. However, if you look closer, his performances at home in his last two would have netted him 25.5 and 19.5 points respectively. Of course, a goal and an assist have inflated that tally, and the competition was a little different, however, that is the potential that Pizza has going into this match and that is what makes him the safest play on the board.


Basel vs Paris St Germain

Basel +482
PSG -158
Draw +323

What Happened Last Time

Playing in Paris in matchday 3, PSG were able to escape from this one with this one in deceiving 3-0 victory, with Cavani scoring on a late PK (after ADM was subbed off) and assisting Di Maria early in the match with Lucas Moura adding in the middle goal at the 62nd minute. Basel had several of their chances miss early on including three that hit the crossbar, and a couple others that seemed to just barely miss. The result will make everybody believe that PSG easily won this one, but it was a very hard fought match, and it was in Paris. Basel conceded the majority of possession, but were able to be stay close on shots with a 13-10 deficit.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

PSG didn’t continue the heavy scoring into the French Ligue 1, instead they had a nil-nil draw at home to middle-league team Marseille who managed to withstand 16 shots from the Parisians without delivering a single shot of their own! The next match saw PSG barely winning on the road against Lille with a goal scored by Cavani assisted by Angel Di Maria.

Basel meanwhile returned to Switzerland with the disappointment of a 3-0 defeat only to find themselves earning two wins and a draw as they scored in all three matches a combined 8 goals. It remains to be seen whether they can translate that goal scoring to their return matchup with PSG at home. Basel will be potentially missing Michael Lang their right full back as he rolled his ankle in the last matchup in the Swiss league, If he does miss this match then Egyptian Omar Gaber might start as Gaber came on for Lang in the weekend matchup with Grasshopper. (For those who are unaware, I grew up in Egypt, and that is where my love of Soccer came from, so I’ve had a chance to see Gaber play a few times… more on that in a bit)

What Will Happen Tuesday

This match will confuse plenty of people, many will take some PSG players due to the name recognition and because of the 3-0 first leg. That match would have played out differently had the earlier big chances gone in for Basel. Nevertheless, Basel have their backs against the wall. They need to get some points from this match if they hope to finish in third place in the group to make it to the Europa League Knockout stages.

With Basel missing Michael Lang, as previously mentioned, Gaber will jump in his place. Gaber is a fast paced full back who prefers to play in the middle of the pitch but can handle full back duties. He’s not very defensive minded and often times leaves his opponents plenty of space to slip behind him and make plays happen. Because of this, I think if Gaber gets the start, PSG will likely get opportunities to target the right side with crosses and try to create chances from there. This firmly puts into play Angel Di Maria (M/F, $8,800) as he would be matched up against him. Of course, Di Maria was always an elite on option on PSG, but the starting of Gaber might add a few crosses and a higher chance for an assist. Last time he scored a goal, but only added 3 crosses in total. If Lang starts again, I believe that limits ADM a bit and drops his floor significantly.

Another option to consider is Edinson Cavani (F, $9,300) who is PSGs top goal scorer this season and has really taken on the role since the departure of Ibrahimovic. Cavani now has 16 total goals for PSG in the Champions League and is tied with George Weah as second all time for the club behind Zlatan, and will look to continue his goal scoring run that has seen him score goals in his last three UCL matches as well as goals in all but three matches for his club since September 1st. Pairing him with Lucas Moura (M/F, $7,300) who plays on the other wing opposite ADM or either of the full backs Kurzawa (D, $4,500) or Meunier (D, $4,000) could come in handy especially Meunier who has averaged some crosses and gotten two assists so far this season in both UCL and Ligue 1 and is priced pretty cheap for the starting full back for PSG.

On the other side of the ball, if you believe that Basel can pull off the upset and get a result at home (I do believe they have a chance having watched the first leg), then you should definitely include some of their players in your thinking. Including, Seydou Doumbia (F, $6,600) who hit the cross bar last time out and had another big attempt barely miss the target. Also consider Renato Steffen (M, $5,700) who takes the corners for the team along with Matias Delgado (M, $5,200) as both are good plays for a cheap price that might be a source of a potential Basel goal that would go underowned in this week’s slate.

Finally, we have to consider the Basel Goalkeeper, who is at home and as an underdog and should see his fair share of shots on target, Tomas Vaclic (GK, $4,100) should face a decent amount of shots on target and playing at home he should get a few more saves than he did while playing in Paris. I expect him to be highly owned at his price, and he will probably be one of my main options at GK for this slate.


Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arsenal

Ludogorets Razgrad +820
Arsenal -260
Draw +429

What Happened Last Time

Arsenal ran away with this one with Alexis Sanchez opening the scoring and then the results piling on. Ozil scored a rare hat-trick and Oxlade Chamberlain, and Walcott added two others for a final result of 6-0 Arsenal. The teams looked like vastly different outfits and Arsenal were able to take command of the match with Ludo only threatening once. I expect more of the same on the return leg with Arsenal unlikely to score 6 goals again, but I do think that the difference in class is evident in this matchup and this may end up being the continuation of the unraveling of Ludogorets as a potential third place finisher in this group.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

Arsenal was unable to get all 6 points from their two EPL fixtures since this matchup as they were held to a goalless draw to Middlesbrough at home in what could have easily been a loss to the newly promoted English club. However, they followed it up with a thundering win against Sunderland 4-1 in what was an easily managed club where they were able to afford some rest to some of their players as Iwobi and Oxlade-Chamberlain were both subbed off in the second half. Moreover, Arsenal were able to welcome back Olivier Giroud who came on in the 69th minute as a sub and was able to score twice.

Elsewhere, Ludogorets Razgrad played two matches in the Bulgarian League and were able to come away with 4-0 and 5-3 wins to add to their league leading goal scoring tally. However, the Bulgarian League is nothing to the UCL and thus, these results will be taken with a grain of salt. The team will likely undergo some lineup changes however as the manager has already been quoted saying that they’ll be more defensive and indicated a change in Goalkeeper is potentially in store.

What Will Happen Tuesday

So how will a team that conceded 6 goals adjust things moving forward? For starters, they know that Arsenal traveled a long way to Bulgaria (their first ever visit there) and the home team can use the cold dreary weather to slow things down a bit. There will be some tactical changes for them, I Expect them to line up in a 4-5-1 with Claudio Keseru (F, $5,800) leading the line. I don’t expect much from him though as the team will be focused on NOT conceding 6 goals again that the supply line will likely not feed him too many opportunities.

In addition to that, the replacement of the keeper could prove useful, Milan Borjan (GK, $3,500) Is Canada’s starting keeper and has experience playing against English clubs as he debuted in the Champions League against Liverpool, He’s worth a shot if you think the home side can potentially quell the red wave of the Arsenal attack somewhat and he can provide some decent saves en route to a relatively decent point total.

Speaking of the Arsenal Attack, obviously, taking any of the front 4 is a good option here, Alexis, Ozil, Iwobi or Walcott, if any or all of them start, make for good plays against a weak opponent. They all either scored or contributed to the scoring in recent weeks, also worth considering is that Arsenal will play against Tottenham on Sunday in a seemingly important EPL matchup that should probably take attention away from this matchup. This would lead me to believe that Wenger might decide to sit some of his key players if he thinks their legs might be getting tired. The likely rested players could be Walcott, Alexis, Monreal, Bellerin. This would mean that there could be some cheap starters here on Tuesday including Carl Jenkinson (D, $2,500), Alex Iwobi (M/F, $5,900) and Olivier Giroud (F, $7,400) all of which are worth a start in your lineups.


Manchester City vs Barcelona

Manchester City +188
Barcelona +148
Draw +271

What Happened Last Time

Last time out Barcelona ran riot on Manchester City and gave their old coach a warm welcome in Spain to the tune of a 4-0 win. This wasn’t the first time that Pep got handed a tough loss at the Camp Nou as Bayern were shellacked there 3-0 a few years ago in the 2014/15 semi finals. Bayern did come back and win the reverse fixture, but that Bayern team was a better one at the back than this City team. For their part, City tried to keep up, but they got dismantled by Messi and his beard who took advantage of all the mistakes of City at the back and had an easy home victory. Neymar scored the other goal, but missed a penalty kick which was saved by Willy Caballero. Speaking of Caballero, he’ll get the start this time after Claudio Bravo was given a red card for handling a the ball outside the box in an attempt to stop a guaranteed goal after yet another mistake by the defense. All in all, City looked hapless, while Barcelona looked to be in complete control.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

That loss to Barcelona came in the middle of a six match winless run for the Citizens as they continued with a 1-1 draw the next weekend against Southampton, then lost midweek in the English Football League Cup 1-0 to cross town rivals Manchester United. City finally got themselves a resounding win this weekend with a 4-0 thumping of Tony Pulis’ West Brom in the Hawthornes which is sure to give them some confidence heading into this fixture. City should be starting a similar lineup that started this weekend against West Brom with the exception of the rested Kevin De Bruyne coming back and getting the start.

On the other side Barcelona were able to snatch up a 3-2 victory away at Valencia the week immediately following their matchup with City they then followed that up with a 1-0 home win against Granada. Barca did get Rafinha back last weekend and he scored his fifth goal for the team in six matches this season, adding another piece to the Barcelona puzzle when trying to figure out what’s going to happen this week.

What Will Happen Tuesday

That’s the big question isn’t it? We don’t know how this new City team will respond to being dismantled by Barcelona in a terrible defensive display that had many egregious errors that cost the team conceding all these goals. But it will be interesting to see whether City are able to reverse the course of this match and not make as many mistakes costing them goals and maybe a chance at qualifying to the next round. If I had to guess I would expect that City will still struggle defensively in this one, as they have in most of their games where their personnel have committed errors, except that against Barcelona, the opponent is so good, led by the trio of Messi (M/F, $10,400), Suarez (F, $9,400) and Neymar (M/F, $10,100), that I don’t think they’ll have much trouble exploiting the errors that City will make in this one.

Neymar carries the most value for cash as he takes corners, he also has taken split penalty taking with Messi is recent weeks. If I had to rank them for Tournaments I would say that Messi gets top billing, followed by Suarez then Neymar. Though, any of the three can score a hat-trick in any day.

On the other side of the ball, targeting some Manchester City players is not a bad idea, Barca have shown they are slightly weaker defensively on the road giving up 2 goals to Valencia recently and conceding twice as many shots away from the Camp Nou as they do at home. Specifically, I like targeting Sergio Aguero (F, $9,000), Raheem Sterling (M/F, $7,600) and Kevin De Bruyne (M/F, $8,300)

Willy Caballero (GK, $4,700) isn’t cheap enough to truly go after given the matchup and the other options on the board, but I don’t mind him as he should see a fair amount of saves, but he can concede a lot of goals in the process.


Borussia MonchenGladbach vs Celtic

Borussia MonchenGladbach -199
Celtic +612
Draw +367

What Happened Last Time

BMG won the first round of this matchup 2-0 away from home in a match that saw Andre Hahn and Lars Stindl trade goals and assist each other in the process. Celtic did hold possession in that one and while they managed to walk away without any goals, they were aggressive and were close a few times in creating chances and big shots. Their keeper had a good day with 4 saves even though he conceded twice. For Celtic, last match both goals were caused by errors from Kolo Toure, and good news for the Glasgow supporters as Toure is actually injured in this one and won’t be available for selection.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

Since that last matchup, Borussia played three matches, first a 2-0 loss to Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga and then a midweek fixture against Stuttgart in the cup which they handily won 2-0, then a narrow draw with Eintracht Frankfurt in which Wendt hit the crossbar and almost put his team ahead. There is doubt as to whether Traore and Hazard will be available for selection in this one as both are recovering from injuries suffered since the last match.

On the other side, Celtic were able to follow up their loss to Borussia M’Gladbach with three consecutive wins with a combined score of 6-0. By all accounts, the match in the UCL last time out was their worst match performance in a while and Brenden Rodgers will do well to bring them back to good form. They enter this matchup missing some key players in Tierney, Griffiths, Simunovic and the aforementioned Toure.

What Will Happen Tuesday

This will be a tough one for the road team as they must get a point at least to avoid elimination. If they lose they will be out if City get at least a point against Barcelona. Borussia Monchengladbach have an opportunity to jump to 2nd place in the group if they beat Celtic at home and City fail to win against Barcelona. Because of this, I expect this match to be tight with little between these two. Neither of them is particularly an offensive juggernaut, as Celtic take 7.3 shots a game and BMG take 9.7 shots a game. The difference is that Celtic do concede 17.3 shots overall, but they tend to play it a bit tighter on the road and concede 15 shots. I do expect that Celtic will sit back and allow BMG to get the majority of possession leading to few chances between both teams. Taking a shot at one of the two keepers is then a decent option, if that’s the case, then the Celtic keeper Gordon (GK, $4,000) is a cheap option, but there is no guarantee of enough attempts on target for him to accumulate a large amount of saves. The Celtic full back Cristian Gamboa should be getting the start in place of Tierney and he’s priced at $2,800 making him one of the better value plays on the board for the day.

In other options, for Celtic, taking Moussa Dembele (F, $6,500) or Scott Sinclair (M/F, $5,300) allows the savings necessary to get yourself exposure to the high priced big names in the other matches. Also worth considering for tournaments is Tomas Rogic (M, $4,600) as a shot off for a player who can score the odd goal.

On the other side, the home team boasts some very talented youngsters, if they get the start both Raffael and Thorgan Hazard are worth the price at $7,500 and $7,400 respectively. Corners are usually taken by left back Oscar Wendt (D, $4,100). But this team doesn’t spread the ball out wide very often and like to keep it low on the ground resulting in few crossing opportunities to really rely on Wendt in anything more than a GPP. American Fabian Johnson will always be highly owned, and he’s talented enough to score goals for this team, and I can see him doing just that in this one, if you do roster him though don’t expect too many goals as the game will likely be too tight to feature heavily one way or the other.


PSV Eindhoven vs Bayern Munich

PSV Eindhoven +886
Bayern Munich -279
Draw +271

What Happened Last Time

Bayern put on a clinic beating PSV soundly 4-1 at home and the match featured all of Bayern’s front three scoring along with newly minted golden boy Joshua Kimmich. Bayern controlled the match in terms of possession, shots and pass success rate. The display by the German giants was enough to shut down the Dutch champions who normally take 19.4 shots per game which is among the best in Europe. Of course, that number drops when they’re on the road to just 15.2 which is above average.

What Happened In Between Last Game and This One

Since the last time these two met, Bayern faced off against three teams and were able to win all three matches with a combined score of 8-2 with the scoring spread out amongst the players. Last match though saw Lewandowski and Robben taking the lions share of the goal scoring and assists, marking the dynamic duo for 3 goals and 3 assists combined.

PSV on the other hand had three matches where they won both Eredivise matchups against Sparta Rotterdam and Vitesse, then managed to lose to that same Rotterdam team 3-1 on the road in the Dutch Cup. Gaston Pereiro did score twice for PSV in the last matchup and seems like the most in form player on a squad that has won only twice in their last 7 matches.

What Will Happen Tuesday

I believe more of the same. Bayern is still one of the best teams in Europe and can neutralize an opponent that has some weak foundations as does PSV. Bayern is very close to advancing to the knock-out stages for the 14th time in a row, and will try to dictate this match early to take the crowd out of it and then methodically extract a goal or two. For this reason, Bayern players are tournament options only for me. I don’t think they’ll fail at scoring, but that it won’t be a blowout the way the first match was, which will result in fewer goals and fewer shots for the visiting team.

Corners for Bayern will go for either Alcantara or Douglas Costa, whichever one gets the start should get a nod for cash games, while the combo of Robber, Muller and Lewandowski should be considered for goal scoring in tournaments. Neuer is too expensive to truly take a chance on in tournaments, and of the backs I like Lahm and Alaba as potential plays.

On the other side, Guardado and Pereiro take the cake when it comes to fantasy production. Guardado takes corners and ends up being the main crosser in open play, while Pereiro is an option for scoring goals. I will need to warn though that both of them were shut down in the last matchup with Bayern, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the German Champs manage to repeat the same feat again.

About the Author

hambazaza
Hesh Hambazaza (hambazaza)

At the intersection of sports and mathematics you’ll find Hesh Hambazaza as a staunch believer that numbers really can explain everything. Along with working as a RotoGrinders editor, Hambazaza contributes to RotoGrinders in Soccer coverage as well as a contributor to RotoAcademy highlighting Vegas as a useful tool. When he’s not devoting countless hours to DFS a week, Hambazaza can be found working as a father, husband and electrical engineer on various NASA projects.