UCL Grind Down: Tuesday October 18th
Welcome to the Champions League! We are in matchday 3 of the group stages and teams are starting to take things very seriously. There are some easy picks to make this week, and some not so easy picks to make. Before we dive into the content, I wanted to do some blatant self promotion. We just launched the soccer premium product on the DFS Marketplace where I’ve been able to offer just a bit more content than what you’ve been getting.
The good news is that we’re still offering the Grind Down free for both EPL and UCL, but if you’d like to find out what we’re offering in the Soccer package, check out the forum thread. As always, feel free to reach out to me with any questions you may have! good luck!
Bruges vs Porto
Club Bruges has been the weak link of this group so far having lost both their matches by a combined 7-0 scoreline and since they have failed to score so far this campaign, it’s hard to pin any hopes on them coming through against Porto especially after losing to Leicester City 3-0 in their opening match also at home. In the local league Bruges has been mediocre, they’ve already lost 4 matches and currently sit in 7th place and lost their last matchup against third place team Sporting Charleroi. They are without their top scorer this week Jose Izqueierdo.
Corner Kick Taker: Ruud Vormer (Midfielder, $4,900)
Ludovic Butelle, Goalkeeper, $4,200 – If you’ve had the opportunity to check out the Daily Fantasy Marketplace, and had a chance to read my Strategy section for the week, I talk about targeting goalkeepers. In it I list the number one goalkeeper type to target is at home against an offensively prolific team. Porto average 15.1 shots per game in Liga NOS (Portuguese first division) and are favorites in this one. Butelle should face 5-10 shots on target and even if he concedes 3-4 goals he can still end up in positive territory. He has big upside in this slate and can provide plenty of fantasy points but the risk is there for a blowup.
Jelle Vossen, Forward, $7,200 – He’s a bit steep on the price, but he’s expected to slot in the number 9 position for the Belgian team in place of injured Izqueierdo. In his only full match in the Champions League he got 22 touches, with just 1 in the box and about 8 in the final third. He doesn’t offer much floor, but he has potential for a score.
Porto on the other hand have been successful in their Liga NOS campaign, unbeaten in 5 of their last 6 matches. They did lose last time out in the UCL to Leicester City with a 1-0 scoreline, and now play their second consecutive matchup away from home. Porto are a very capable team and should run away with this one. There are several good options to target from this team as they should get a few shots off as well as maintain the pressure on their opponents despite playing on the road.
Corner Kick Takers: Otavio (Midfielder, $6,100)
Andre Silva, Forward, $8,000 – He’s been a prolific scorer in recent weeks having scored 3 against the Faroe Islands for his home country during the international break. Silva had a knack for being in the right place at the right time on more than one occasion and had the chance to make it four or five goals in that match had he completed some of the easier opportunities. Nevertheless, the expectation is that he’s going to get more opportunities today to score some goals and he should be on the scoresheet provided that Porto control the matchup as expected of them.
Miguel Layun/Alex Telles, Defenders, $6,700/$5,300 – Two very expensive defenders but both are very talented and very committed to crossing and attacking. Layun’s price tag is comparable to several desireable midfielders and even forwards. I expect his ownership to be very low along with Telles making him a very unique GPP play. Combined they’ve averaged 5.6 key passes a game, which indicates the potential for an assist.
Diogo Jota, Forward, $5,200 – The value play to target from this team is Diogo Jota who should get the start here today. If Porto were to score multiple goals then Jota should get a chance to be part of that. He scored a hat-trick in his last match for Porto in the league and should be itching to get on the score sheet in a Champions League match!
Leicester vs Copenhagen
Leicester are top dogs in the group, and it appears that they’ve focused their season advancing to the knockout stages of the Champions League in the clubs first ever European foray. They play host to Copenhagen this week. Last weekend Leicester lost to Chelsea 3-0 in a dominating contest from the former champs. However, Leicester rested a good bit of their top performers in advance of this week’s UCL contest.
Corner Kicks: Marc Albrighton, $7,100, Riyadh Mahrez, $9,400
Marc Albrighton, Midfielder, $7,100 – It will be tough to pinpoint any specific Leicester players to target today as the team in general has played a slower pace and that has limited the DFS upside. Albrighton does carry the highest floor however with his crossing ability, he’s also been on free kicks and corner kicks most of the time putting him at an excellent position to record assists if/when Leicester score goals. I do expect to see some goals this week from the English champions so that brings us to the likely scorer.
Running through the team, Jamie Vardy doesn’t inspire confidence. He’s taken just 4 shots in the last 477 minutes played and only one of them has hit the target. Moreover, he’s priced too high to really take the risk on him in this slate. Mahrez hasn’t been much better without any significant shot contributions in recent weeks either. The player who stands out is Islam Slimani, Forward, $8,200 – who has taken 3 shots a game and created more chances for his team since he’s arrived at the King Power stadium. He scored the winning goal against his previous team in the last time Leicester played in Europe and will look to duplicate the effort again this week. If I had to take a chance on any Leicester forward, Slimani would be it.
Copenhagen managed to beat Club Bruges handily 4-0 last time out, and were able to snag a 1-1 draw with Porto in Portugal. Copenhagen have been a surprise so far and enter this third week in Champions League contests with an undefeated season. Of course, the level of competition in the Danish League is a bit different from the Champions League, but they’ve proven resilient so far and will look to score on fellow Dane Kaspar Schmeichel.
Copenhagen Corners: Ludwig Augustinsson (defender, $5,300)
Ludwig Augustinsson/Peter Ankersen, Defenders, $5,300/$5,100 – Both these full backs are crossing experts and when Copenhagen have possession of the ball, the offense will run through them as they try to spread the play outwards. Leicester are a good team at keeping the opponent from doing what they like to do, so these two will likely have some trouble getting their way, but they are worth targeting if you want a chance at exposure to this Copenhagen team.
CSKA vs Monaco
CSKA Moscow come into this matchup with a suspension to Eremenko and Dzagoev as doubtful putting the team in a position of having to come up with alternatives. They are home and a slight underdog to the French team, but will look to get themselves a win here. They lost their last home game to the visiting Tottenham and managed a 2-2 draw against Bayer Leverkusen in matchday 1 of the competition. I expect that CSKA will likely end up winners here against Monaco.
Corner Kicks: Zoran Tosic
Zoran Tosic, Midfielder/Forward, $5,900 – Tosic will play a bigger role here today than he has in the previous two matchups that CSKA has played. Without Eremenko and Dzagoev, he’s taking over corner kicks as well as being a primary distributor on this team. He will get roughly 40-70 touches and those will be enough to facilitate the offense. Monaco is a worse team away from home having conceded 8 of their 12 goals in the French Ligue 1 away from home. Look for Tosic to take advantage of that and for just $5.9K he gets you exposure to a home team in what should be a close match.
Lacina Troare, Forward, $7,100 – He’s loaned into CSKA from non-other than Monaco, and as he comes into his parent club he is looking to make an impact. He was deemed “surplus” at the French club and thus he carries a chip on his shoulder to prove himself against his former team. Traore is a big body to be down the middle and reminds me a bit of Lukaku in terms of skillset and will likely come close to scoring if he gets a chance.
Monaco come into this matchup with a 3-1 loss to Toulouse in the French league last weekend and will look to bounce back this week. They should be getting Falcao back but he likely won’t be starting given he has just returned from injury. The likely sources for fantasy points will come from the full backs, and the striker.
Corner Kicks: Thomas Lemar
Andrea Raggi, Defender $3,600 – Raggi should get the start here this week, and if he doesnt get the start then look for an even cheaper option Mehdi Bennedine, $2,500 to start in his place. Either of them will make for good options in a narrow field of cheap full backs to use as defenders. Raggi does provide some crossing upside and with that some added potential for assists.
Valere Germain, Forward, $7,900 – in 82 minutes of Champions league football, Germain has provided very little to give us confidence. However, he’s been able to get some goals for Monaco in the French league as recently as last weekend against Toulouse. He carries upside of goals, and the uniqueness of low ownership that will come with his price tag. If you’re fading a certain high priced Real Madridian, then Germain should be on your radar.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Tottenham
Both teams love to press and will jump into this matchup with the intention to do just that. Spurs are going to welcome back Heung-Min Son who rested over the weekend, while Bayer Leverkusen want to delight their home fans. I expect this will be a fun matchup to watch and several of these players will be familiar with each other. The trick will be figuring out which players to target to pair up with any other expensive options.
Bayer Leverkusen lost to Werder Bremen last weekend in the return from the international break, marking their third defeat of the season and dropping them down to 10th place in the Bundesliga. They also currently sit in third place in their group making them very eager to get some points from this matchup, preferably all three points.
Hakan Calhanoglu, Midfielder/Forward, $8,500 – He had 6 shots, a goal and 3 crosses last week. He’s also taking corners for Leverkusen and might be their most important player this season. He’s likely to be involved in any goals this team scores, and if they dont score, then he’ll be putting the pressure on the visitors.
Javier Hernandez ‘Chicharito’, Forward, $9,000 – He scored against Monaco last time out in the UCL and has six goals in 8 matches for Leverkusen. He previously played in the EPL for Manchester United, but was never able to score against Tottenham. He’s a risky fade as he’s one of those players that can convert a goal at any minute and is always worth the risk. However, his floor is too low that he may end up being too risky to take considering the other options on the slate.
Tottenham come into this one after a 1-1 draw away to the Baggies (West Brom) and will look to continue their European campaign with a second consecutive win after losing their opening group match to Monaco. The odds makers have this as an even matchup for both teams, and the road team generally has a tougher time in those. However, I can see this one being an interesting one as both of these teams like to push the pace and pressure the opposition, the big question will be which midfield wins out.
Heung-Min Son, Midfielder/Forward, $7,800 – He’s going to be back in this match and going against his old team for the first time after they let him go last year. Son has been on fire and has really found his place among this squad where he’s averaged 3.8 shots per game and 6.4 crosses per game this season with several goals under his name. Moreover, he’s defied all the odds and statistics and the team seems to love having him there. He’s going to be a fixture on my teams here because if #NarrativeStreet is a thing, and the soccer gods are just, then Son will shine today.
Hugo Lloris, Goalkeeper, $4,300 – There is a small chance that neither of these teams manages to get a goal and we end up with a 0-0 or a 1-0 nailbiter. If that happens then Lloris is a huge value for just $4,300. Here’s what he has going against him: playing on the road and playing against a team adept at scoring goals. However, Tottenham have been one of the best defenses in all of Europe and he did manage to hold a clean sheet last time in the UCL in Moscow. For just 4300, Lloris is a great play to consider for tournaments.
Due to a technical error (my own) I somehow` was able to accidentally delete/not save my write up for the second half of this article. So the following bits will be quick hits for each team rather than a true breakdown as we’ve seen leading up to this point.
Real Madrid vs Legia Warszawa
Toni Kroos ($7,900) takes the corner kicks for Real Madrid and is a big part of the offense, while Ronaldo ($11,700) is worth the price every single time his team takes the pitch and especially so against weak teams where he loves to score goals in bunches. Consider also taking Gareth Bale, Isco, Karim Benzema, Marcelo or Carvajal as all carry big upside.
Warszawa are a weak team in over their heads. They’ll be lucky to get away with conceding fewer than 4 goals. I would not target anybody from there.
Sporting Lisbon vs Borussia Dortmund
I really like this game, lots of options on both sides especially with Dortmund missing some key players due to injury. Of the ones I like from Lisbon:
Rui Patricio, Goalkeeper $4,100 – cheap keeper with the chance to get the win or at least plenty of saves
Bryan Ruiz, Midfielder/Forward $6,000 – He’ll be the main corner kick taker for the home team and has potential for assists and a relatively high floor.
Gelson Martins, Midfielder/Forward $5,900 A young 21 year old winger that is rumored to be targeted by Manchester United that will have plenty of potential to score goals and assists. This could be his coming out party for Sporting.
Bas Dost, Forward, $7,600 – He’s coming from the Bundesliga and has the experience against Dortmund that he can net a goal against them at any time.
As for Borussia Dortmund, they have plenty of injuries that it will be interesting to see who they end up with
Aubemayang, Forward, $10,100 – 8 goals in 8 games so far this season. He’s one of the top forwards in the world and worth taking this week.
Mario Gotze, Midfielder/Forward, $8,700 – Corner kick taker, plenty of upside for goals and assists
Lyon vs Juventus
Target Fekir and Lacazzette from Lyon as they should form the players that are worth targeting in this squad, Lacazette is a goal scorer at heart and Fekir gets the spot kick and corner kick duty.
For Juventus, go after Dybala who takes corners, penalties and is one of the top scorers on the team. high $9.8K price tag reflects this
Zagreb vs Sevilla
Samir Nasri is the top play on this Sevilla team as they visit Croatia. I like Nasri for his touches and general ability to score goals.
Also consider, Vieto as he will play the striker position.
For Zagreb, Machado takes corners and is one of the top plays to consider here and at just $4,300 he’s a great play to put in your lineups. Also worth looking at Soudani who has 5 goals for the team so far.