UCL Grind Down: Tuesday, September 13th
If you’re new to DFS during NFL season, you probably have never heard of “Free Money Tuesday”. That’s the first Tuesday following opening weekend of NFL. What causes this is the influx of users to DFS after the media blitz to bring people to play daily fantasy NFL. The sites tend to create some big contests for their other sports to try to pull in players to check out different parts of the site. Seasoned players tend to get excited about this day and start to gear up for “free money.”
I am not okay with that. Nothing bothers me more than when new players get into a new game and get crushed, so this is why we’re here today. My goal from this article is to get you prepared for the Tuesday Champions League event. Throughout this article, I’ll be breaking down key things to look for when building your lineups, as well as some of the better players to target.
So without any further delays, here’s your Tuesday breakdown for the UCL contests on DraftKings.
Bayern Munich vs FC Rostov
Odds to Win
Bayern Munich: -980
FC Rostov: +2950
Draw: +1150
Bayern:
1st in the Bundesliga with 6 points
8 goals scored in two games with 0 goals conceded
Bayern are under a new coach this season with Carlo Ancelotti taking the reigns from Pep Guardiola who moved to Manchester City in the summer.
Injuries: Robben, Boateng, Coman
Corner Kicks: Douglas Costa (Midfielder/Forward, $9,000), Thiago Alcantara (Midfielder, $5,600), Franck Ribery (Midfielder/Forward, $8,700)
Penalty Kicks: Robert Lewandowski (Forward, $10,700)
The writing is on the wall here, Bayern should dominate this matchup and have recently been relentless when facing weakened opposition. Rostov are first timers in this competition, and while they managed to surprise Ajax in the qualification group, don’t expect much of that to repeat this week. The biggest question is the health of Douglas Costa. He’s on corner kick duties if he gets the start (Monday’s press conference by the manager seem to indicate as much, but we’ll have to wait till lineups are announced an hour before lock). Costa’s presence might hurt Alcantara’s upside, however, in the most recent matchup with Schalke, Costa came off the bench at 61 minutes, and Alcantara still delivered two corner kicks.
Goalkeeping is safe if you take Neuer, however, you hurt your ability to build a stacked lineup by paying up for goalkeeper. I will not be using any Neuer in any of my teams, however, I don’t have a problem with him, aside from roster construction.
FC Rostov:
5th in the Russian Premier League
Scored 9 and allowed 6 goals in 6 matches to open their league campaign.
Came within 2 points of winning the league against CSKA Moscow last season
They defeated Ajax in the playoff 5-2 on aggregate to make it to the group stage of this competition for the first time in their history.
Injuries: Maksim Grigoriev (Midfielder, $4,600) Sardar Azmoun, (Forward, $7,500)
Corner Kicks: Timofei Kalachev (Midfielder, $4,500), Aleksandr Bukharov (secondary CK taker) (Forward, $5,900)
Let’s be honest here, this is a team that is a huge underdog, they really stand no chance of making this interesting against Bayern. Their coach even said their best chance isn’t to play some good football, but instead, they’ll be trying to make life difficult on the German team, as well as try to rely on counter attacks. It’s important to know that this game will be played in a stadium with a 70,000 person capacity, and it would be the biggest stadium that Rostov have ever played in. The players could be overwhelmed, and I can see a massive win for Bayern with 5 or more goals coming in here. I would stay clear of Rostov.
Benfica vs Besiktas
Odds to Win
Benfica: -127
Besiktas: +413
Draw: +277
Benfica
3rd in the Portuguese League
scored 8 goals, and conceded 3 in the first 4 matches in league
Injuries: Jonas (Forward, $8,500), Raul Jimenez (Forward, $7,800), Kostas Mitroglou (Forward, $7,500), Rafa (Midfielder/Forward, $7,100)
Corner Kicks: Pizzi (Midfield, $7,000), Alejandro Grimaldo (Defender, $4,300), Andre Carrillo (Midfielder/Forward, $6,800)
Benfica get to be at home for their opening group match and they are playing host to Besiktas. Last season Benfica managed to reach the quarter-finals where they lost to Bayern Munich, at the same time they finished in first place in the Portuguese Primeira Liga. This season they’re looking to start off the Champions League campaign on the right foot with a matchup at home against Turkish side Besiktas. Expect possession dominance by the home team. With the injuries to the forwards, you can look to Goncalo Guedes, (Midfielder/Forward, $6,600) and Pizzi (Midfield, $7,000) as parts of your team Tuesday.
Besiktas
2nd in the Turkish Super Lig
scored 9 goals, and conceded 4 in the first 3 matches in league play
This is their sixth attempt to get out of the group stages
Injuries: None
Corner Kicks: Caner Erkin (Defender, $4,200), Ricardo Quaresma (Midfielder/Forward, $5,900)
Besiktas come into this matchup with low expectations from outside, but from within, they seem to have the confidence to make it out of the group stages for the first time in their history. After a number of high profile transfers, the local expectations are far reaching especially after being drawn in what is generally considered one of the easier groups in the tournament.
Taking players such as Erkin and Quaresma will be my general strategy if I do get any exposure to this squad. However, the GPP play might be taking a chance on Aboubakar if he gets the start. Vincent Aboubakar (Forward, $8,100) will be getting his first start on his new team after being loaned in from Porto. He has Champions League experience and could be asked to lead the line in his old league. He’s also got some appeal for DFS due to his high $ value and projected low ownership while also being a prime candidate for a goal or two if Besiktas can pull it off on the road.
FC Basel vs Ludogorets Razgrad
Odds to Win
Basel -138
Ludogorets Razgrad +431
Draw +297
Basel
Basel are undefeated in the Swiss Super League after seven matches, all wins
They’ve scored 24 goals while just conceding 5 in 7 matches
Doubtful: Adama Traore (Defender, $4,100), Eder Balanta (Defender, $3,400), Luca Zuffi (Midfielder, $4,800)
Corner Kicks: Luca Zuffi (Midfielder, $4,800), Taulant Xhaka (Midfielder, $4,100)
Basel and Ludogorets will be battling for third place in a group that includes PSG and Arsenal, so this match will matter to them when it comes to the chance to finish in third and proceed to the Europa League in the eventuality that neither of these teams moves on the knockout stage of this competition.
The home team being a big favorite puts us in good position to select from them. If Zuffi ends up not playing as mentioned above, then Xhaka becomes your midfield target for corner kicks and set pieces. Also worth considering is Renato Steffen (Midfielder, $6,200) and if you’ve played DFS UCL last season then Seydou Doumbia (Forward, $7,800) should be a familiar name to target for your team. Doumbia is the leading scorer for the Swiss side with 5 goals, while Marc Janko (Forward, $8,300) is the second leading scorer, and is also a viable option, but his price is a bit prohibitive.
Ludogorets Razgrad
They are currently 4th in the local league after 5 matches
Ludogorets scored 15 goals in the three rounds of qualifying (6 matches) to reach the group stages
Injuries: Cicinho (Out, Defender, $4,600), Anicet (Doubtful, Midfielder, $4,900)
Corner Kicks: Marcelinho (Midfielder/Forward, $6,700) or Cosmin Moti (Defender, $3,900)
It’s tempting to try to take some players from this Ludogorets squad, but I honestly find it very difficult to get excited about any of them with as little knowledge as we can find about this team. And since I don’t speak Bulgarian, it was very difficult to find any real stats to use on this squad and finding information that isn’t dated back to 2013-14 in their last trip to the Champions League Group Stage. If you insist on taking somebody from this team, then either Marcelinho or Moti (mentioned above) or taking one of the potential forwards Jonathan Cafu (Forward, $6,300) or Virgil Misidjan (Forward, $7,200) But I wouldn’t consider either of them worth the price on the road.
Dynamo Kyiv vs Napoli
Odds to Win
Dynamo Kyiv +222
Napoli +139
Draw +242
Dynamo Kyiv
They are currently in 2nd Place in the local Ukraine Premier League
They managed a point against their main rivals Shakhtar Donetsk over the weekend
They finished last season in the final 16 after qualifying from the group stage
Injuries: Danilo Silva (Defender, $3,500)
Corner Kicks: Andriy Yarmolenko (Forward, $8,200), Serhiy Rybalka (Midfielder, $5,400)
Kyiv is well known to several of the DFS players who played some UCL last season. And if you know this team, you know that they can be a bit frustrating to predict outside of 2-3 players. Key of those is Andriy Yarmolenko who, along with Moraes (Forward, $7,400) will score most of the goals for this team. They recently played a tough match on the road against Shakhtar Donetsk and will look to start their Champions League campaign on the right foot. Expect that Yarmolenko and Rybalka will be heavily involved in the offense, and if this team plays the same way they did last season, then the ball will go through Yarmolenko quite regularly, making him a decent player to target.
Napoli
This is Napoli’s first time in the Champions League since 2013/14.
Napoli finished last season in 2nd place in Serie A, and so far are in the same position after 3 matches.
Injuries: Vlad Chiriches (Defender, $3,000), Emanuele Giaccherini (Midfielder, $5,500)
Corner Kicks: Faouzi Ghoulam (Defender, $4,400), Jose Callejon (Midfielder/Forward, $7,400)
Napoli is playing on the road, so they will likely have a tougher time than if they were at home. Traveling to the Ukraine is never easy, so be on the lookout for a disappointment. However, if there ever was a road team to put up some good fantasy numbers in this week’s UCL game, Napoli might be the most likely to do so. Ghoulam and Callejon both deliver plenty of crosses, and Callejon scored four goals in his last two matches making him an easy target for cash and GPPs alike. Moreover, you can look to Marek Hamsik (Midfielder, $9,000) as an expensive option. One other player to look out for is Lorenzo Insigne (Midfielder/Forward, $7,100) who started his first match for the team last time out and delivered an assist and was extremely active with 85 total touches in a 3-0 road win against Palermo.
Barcelona vs Celtic
Odds to Win
Barcelona -961
Celtic +2876
Draw +1141
Barcelona
Barcelona rested several key players this weekend against Alaves and it backfired against Luis Enrique’s squad.
After losing to Atletico Madrid last season in the quarter finals, Barcelona is looking to start their campaign on the right foot
Injuries: Manuel Ter Stegen (Questionable, Goalkeeper, $6,000)
Corner Kicks: Neymar (Midfielder/Forward, $9,600), Ivan Rakitic (Midfielder, $8,900)
Barcelona is one of the top teams in the world, and playing at home, it’ll be very tough for any opponent to stop them. Brendan Rodgers and his Celtic squad will have their work cut out for them. For DFS, I would target any of the front three players for any of my teams and may make a point to try to include at least one of them in each team I build tomorrow. That said, Neymar carries the highest floor, as he has gotten corner kick duty when he’s started this season. This puts Neymar on par with the top cash game plays on any team for this week’s matchups. Luis Suarez (Forward, $10,800) is familiar with Rodgers from their time together in Liverpool, and could look to show off for his old manager, and Lionel Messi (Midfielder/Forward, $11,000) is the best player in the world (unless you ask a Real Madrid fan) and is worth putting in your lineup if you can. Messi is on free kick duty, as well as penalty kick duty, and always seems to show up.
I see nothing wrong with taking any of the midfielders, full backs, or the goalkeeper, however, with few exceptions, they are too expensive and have too low a floor to be worth taking a chance on in anything more than a GPP team.
Celtic
Celtic are undefeated in the Scottish Premiership so far this season with 12 points in 4 matches
In three away Champions League matches, they lost twice (Hapoel Beer Sheva and Lincoln Red Imps) and had one draw (FC Astana)
Injuries: Leigh Griffiths (Forward, $6,600)
Corner Kicks: Scott Sinclair (Midfielder/Forward, $5,900)
It’ll be tough to recommend any players from the Scottish side as they pay visit to Barcelona. They haven’t been able to show positive results on the road and lost two out of three against poor teams, and with the matchup against Barcelona coming early in the group stages campaign, I can see Brendan Rodgers throwing in the towel and trying to pack it in and get away with minimal damage. Don’t roster anybody from here
Manchester City vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Odds to Win
Manchester City -241
Borussia M’Gladbach +709
Draw +426
Manchester City
New Manager Pep Guardiola has a strong history in the UCL Champions League having never failed to reach the semi-final
City hold first place in the Premier League alone after defeating Manchester United in the derby this last weekend
Sergio Aguero is back after missing the weekend matchup due to a suspension by the FA
Injuries: Ilkay Gundogan (Midfielder, $5,700), Vincent Kompany (Defender, $3,500)
Corner Kicks: Kevin De Bruyne (Midfielder/Forward, $9,700), David Silva (Midfielder, $8,200)
As is usual for English teams in the Champions League, DraftKings has too much data on them including ownership percentage, and with a popular team such as Manchester City, there will be some inflated pricing every week they play in the Champions League. And while the price tags of players such as KDB and Sergio Aguero (Forward, $10,500) are really high, that will still not stop some players from targeting them for their GPP rosters. So what should we do? I believe that City will try to make a statement in their first group matchup at home and will look for a win. KDB would make for a great play, and David Silva makes for similar upside. However, if you were to go for GPPs, targeting Nolito (Forward, $7,600) or Raheem Sterling (Midfielder/Forward, $7,600) could be the move to make. Both of them can score goals, and both will probably be under owned given their price point and that most people targeting City will focus on taking Aguero or KDB.
Borussia M’Gladbach
They suffered a defeat last weekend against Freiberg in the Bundesliga, dropping them to 10th place after just two matches
They tend to play down the middle of the pitch and limit crosses, however, they do end up with some crosses from corner kicks
EPL fans will recognize their midfielder’s last name, Thorgan Hazard, Eden’s younger brother.
Injuries: Mamadou Doucoure (Defender, $3,200), Patrick Herrmann (Midfielder/Forward, $7,100)
Corner Kicks: Raffael (Forward, $7,700), Ibrahima Traore (Midfielder, $6,500)
BMG’s general approach to games is a cautious one. They tend to not push their defenders forward very often, and they rely on some brilliance and possession from their midfielders and forwards to create chances. This is a team that can disappear an entire game and take one shot on goal and score off that one, or they can control possession and slowly build up the attack until they secure a goal or two. This city team is still not as good as Pep Guardiola wants them to be, and so there are some holes that BMG can exploit. From there, I would target the corner kick takers heavily and then pair one of them Andre Hahn (Forward, $5,700) for a mini stack in a GPP. Again, target this team with the knowledge that they can return anywhere between 0 and 3 goals in this matchup.
Paris St. Germain vs Arsenal
Odds to Win
Paris St. Germain -106
Arsenal +322
Draw +272
Paris St. Germain
PSG have failed to win their last two matches in the French League
They enter this matchup with 7 points in their first four matches and sitting in 7th place in the local league
Injuries: Kurzawa (out), Thiago Silva (doubtful, Defender, $3,600), Serge Aurier (doubtful, Defender, $4,400), Javier Pastore (doubtful, Midfielder, $5,200), Maxwell (doubtful, Defender, $4,100)
Corner Kicks: Angel Di Maria (Midfielder/Forward, $9,100), Lucas Moura (Midfielder/Forward, $6,400)
PSG will need to change things around in order to keep from falling too far back in the local league, and a visit from Arsenal won’t necessarily afford them the opportunity to easily accomplish that. The Matchup with Arsene Wenger’s men will be a tough one, but PSG have some very talented players on their roster. ADM is key among them with his ability to score goals, cross the ball and deliver assists, his price tag is affordable when compared to similarly skilled players. Edinson Cavani (Forward, $8,600) is also worth considering as the chief penalty kick taker for the squad, and the most likely beneficiary of one of Di Maria’s crosses. There is also opportunity with the defenders especially if the team relies on some backups, then the prices might be cheap. Look for the team to potentially start Thomas Meunier (Defender, $4,300) and/or Presnel Kimpembe (Defender, $3,100) at full back.
Arsenal
With near identical local league results, Arsenal enter with 7 points and are sitting in 7th place in the EPL
Alexis Sanchez sat last weekend to start the match in order to prepare for this week’s UCL matchup.
Injuries: Gabriel, Per Mertesacker, Danny Welbeck, Mathieu Debuchy, Carl Jenkinson, Aaron Ramsey (doubtful, Midfielder, $6,500)
Corner Kicks: Santi Cazorla (Midfielder, $7,200), Mesut Ozil (Midfielder, $8,600)
Arsenal pose an interesting challenge this week as we enter this matchup uncertain as to which Arsenal squad will show up. Will it be the one that allowed four goals to Liverpool in the EPL opening weekend? Or will it be the one that held Leicester City to just 8 shots and walked away with a 0-0 draw away from home? Either way, players such as Alexis Sanchez (Midfielder/Forward, $9,300) and Santi Cazorla are worth considering especially after Alexis got himself a weekend rest after traveling to South America for the international break and playing two matches with Chile. This should be a fun matchup with some potential for goals.
PSV Eindhoven vs Atletico Madrid
Odds to Win
PSV Eindhoven +407
Atletico Madrid -118
Draw +255
PSV Eindhoven
PSV and Atletico played each other last season in the round of 16
Atletico won on penalties and went on to the final matchup. Neither team scored a single goal in either matchup
PSV are an offensively minded team, with Atletico being one of the best defensive teams in Europe
Injuries: Siem de Jong (Midfielder, $5,300), Oleksandr Zinchenko (Midfielder/Forward, $5,400)
Corner Kicks: Andres Guardado(Midfielder, $6,400), Davy Propper (Midfielder, $5,700), Jetro Willems (Defender, $4,800)
While I certainly don’t expect this matchup to end up with 0 goals over the two fixtures, I am not expecting a ton of goals to be had in this one. One target I do like for this week is the PSV goalkeeper, Jeroen Zoet (Goalkeeper, $4,600), Part of the reason I like him the most is that he is the biggest home underdog today (Dynamo Kyiv are also home underdogs), and that usually lends itself to good goalkeeper performances. Other options to consider here is Davy Propper and Jetro Willems as both carry some upside with crosses and shots. However, Atletico are very good at neutralizing their opponent that I hesitate to roster anybody against them who isn’t named Ronaldo or Messi.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico are having trouble winning games in La Liga this season with just 1 win and 2 draws to start the season
They’ll look to continue their solid run in European competition with this rematch against the Dutch team.
They finally got their first league win with a 4-0 drubbing of Celta Vigo last weekend
Injuries: Alessio Cerci, Moya, Sime Vrsaljko
Corner Kicks: Koke (Midfielder, $8,400), Gabi (Midfielder, $4,900)
If this match was being played in Spain, I’d be much more inclined to target this team. However, being that it is in the Netherlands, my shares of Madrid players will be limited by necessity. That said, I wouldn’t mind taking any of the front six players, Koke, Gabi, Saul, Gameiro, Carrasco, and Griezmann. They all come at various price points, and depending on roster construction, you can target any of them. I do prefer Koke and Griezmann as my top options of that sextuplet, with the other four still options but to a lesser extent.