UCL Preview: Tuesday/Wednesday
Here is the breakdown for DraftKings’ slate of Champions League games, which start on Tuesday afternoon.
Manchester City vs. Barcelona
On the surface of things, this is the marquee of the four matches this week—and on paper, it easily is. City in its home leg must get a positive result, try and score goals and not let Barca put things away before the return Nou Camp visit next month by leaving themselves open to Barca’s big three in attack. Easy, right?
Barcelona are road favorites, one of two Spanish clubs on the slate to be designated as such. City hasn’t made it past the Round of 16 since their return to European prominence over the last decade. For all the money they’ve spent to make the club a perennial power in England, Europe has been a much harder nut to crack. Their first trip out of the group stage was last season, when they were knocked out by—Barcelona. Same as last season, the first leg was at the Ethiad—a 2-0 loss that couldn’t be overcome, and City fell 4-1 by aggregate. City cannot repeat their same mistake in this one.
Let’s start in goal— Joe Hart ($4,100) has a home start, but that DraftKings price tag tells you a lot about an expected outcome in this one. There’s not a lot to like about using Hart in this one; at the very best, he’s a contrarian play that could get to double digits if City win and he makes multiple saves, frustrating Barcelona in a 2-1 win. A clean sheet seems very much out of play. For Barca, it looks like Marc-Andre Ter Stegen’s European adventure is over for the time being as Claudio Bravo ($4,900) is expected to start. Both are the same pricepoint, so there is an easy shift between the two. Whichever keeper is used, only David Ospina for Arsenal is costlier. Bravo is a solid play, but if you’re spending up on a keeper, Ospina is a better play because of his matchup against Monaco, and there are other, cheaper options to choose from.
Both sets of defenders have the ability to be used, but for much different reasons. Pablo Zabaleta ($3,800) and Gael Clichy ($3,100) are inexpensive but at home, but their ceiling is very low—in the rout over Newcastle on the weekend, Zabaleta had just seven points. Clichy’s replacement, Alex Kolarov, had 10, but Kolarov has free kick duties that Clichy does not. With the clean sheet bonus likely not happening, I can’t suggest either City defender as a viable option. On the other hand, you can spend up on Dani Alves ($5,200) and Jordi Alba ($5,100) knowing you have a pretty solid floor and the best potential of any defender in the slate. Aside from a defender scoring from the run of play or via a set piece, Alves and Alba have the ability to rack up points from the run of play—Alves especially. It’s hard to see Alves not being the top owned defender in the slate, even with that salary.
In midfield, Barcelona remains almost unplayable per DK and its scoring system. Sergio Busquets, Ivan Rakitic and Andres Iniesta are excellent players, but none consistently get chances on net, they don’t cross the ball, and using them makes you dependent on assists or a fluke goal for them—and at their mid-level salaries, it’s hard to see them hitting value. City has a group much more friendly for our purposes, even with Yaya Toure suspended for this match. It looks like James Milner ($6,200) will be fit enough to start ahead of Jesus Navas on the right, Samir Nasri ($5,000) will be on the left, and in Toure’s absence David Silva ($7,300) will be in his preferred central attacking midfield role behind Sergio Aguero ($9,600). Silva versus Busquets will be one of the matchups on which this will hinge upon; for City to advance, Silva needs to have a huge two games. In Toure’s absence, City’s attack will go through Silva. Aguero had a big weekend against Newcastle, but he will not have as many chances to capitalize upon against Barcelona because the latter will hold possession a lot better. At that price tag, you need at least one, if not more, goal from Aguero. I’ll be looking elsewhere, but Aguero is a solid play that I can’t fault anyone for using. City on the counter will be a big part of any success they have, and Aguero does have the speed to go at fellow Argentine Javier Mascherano and Gerard Pique, who both are not exactly quick.
Now, the big three—as of late, Luis Suarez ($9,800) is playing a more central, complimentary role—with Leo Messi ($12,700) to his right and Neymar ($10,200) to his left. And, of course, all three have the ability to interchange their roles in the run of play. Messi remains the undisputed big dog for Barcelona, with 13 goals and six assists over the last ten league/domestic cup matches. Neymar, over the same stretch, “only” has eight goals and a single assist, while Suarez has four and five over his last ten games. Barca were shut out over the weekend at home against Malaga; a blip in form or just a reason for this trio to get riled up? All three are easily in play; the trick is finding the right value in other games to make it worth using Messi, etc.
Juventus vs. Borussia Dortmund
This, understandably, is a really hard game to read. Dortmund’s domestic issues are highly publicized and are unlikely to qualify for 2014-15 outside of a title run in this year’s competition. Juventus, on the other hand, are clearly in charge in Serie A, Italy’s version of Chelsea on the domestic level. Juve are understandably the favorites despite not winning its group, while Dortmund took their top-heavy one over Arsenal on goal differential.
Players from this match overall are not as expensive as the preceding match, but overall are a bit more than Bayer/Atletico (which comes next) and most Arsenal options. In goal, it’s hard to overlook Gianluigi Buffon ($4,800) in this match. Buffon is cheaper than Ospina and whomever starts for Barca, but the matchup is better than the latter while Dortmund does give the opportunity for more attempts on goal than Monaco offer by far. If I’m spending up on Tuesday, it’s with Buffon, or going lower to Moya for Atletico. His ceiling is what clinches it for me; the best case scenario of a win, clean sheet and multiple saves is more here than any other keeper on the slate. Roman Weidenfeller ($4,000) simply does not come into play; road start, solid attack for Juventus, and as of late despite Dortmund’s victories in the Bundesliga they have been giving up goals.
At defense, long gone are the halcyon days of Lukasz Piszczek ($4,000) as a minimum play. He remains in play, even if Dortmund gives up goals, because of his ability going forward and his likely opposite Patrice Evra ($4,000) is vulnerable defensively. Piszczek is a better play than Evra at the same price point, and from this match only Stephane Lichtsteiner ($4,300) has the same kind of ability to produce points without bringing the defensive bonus into play. However, Lichtsteiner has the better chance of a clean sheet in this one. If you can spend the extra $300, I’d go with the Swiss right back. If you want a lower cost value, Mats Hummels ($3,500) could get you a zero or score a goal—not a lot of in-between production is likely.
Midfield brings some real, dynamic options—neither team use outright wingers and there’s a lot of dependency on getting a goal for value to be returned. All four Juve midfielders — Arturo Vidal ($6,100), Andrea Pirlo ($5,900), Paul Pogba ($5,300) and Claudio Marchisio ($5,300) — remain complimentary options, but for DFS play on DK none jump off the board at you. Vidal is the most forward of the four and plays behind the front two, and has scored six league goals. He also is Juventus’ penalty taker. Pirlo takes free kicks—and like this past weekend, damn, can he deliver—but that’s not enough to make him a top shelf option. Pogba at this point is the most talented player on Juve’s squad, but he’s not in a position in the formation that allows him multiple chances on goal. Even Marchisio is contributing lately to the offense, with a goal and assist over Juve’s last two league games. If I had to choose one, it’d be Vidal—but it’s a roll of the dice.
For Dortmund, you have one outright option (Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, $7,400) and two of three shots in the dark: Shinji Kagawa, ($7,600) and either Henrik Mkhitarayan, ($6,100) or Jacob Blaszczykowski, ($5,800). The latter three, I’m avoiding—Kagawa’s price tag is prohibitive enough, and he doesn’t score goals enough to justify his selection. Mkhitarayan is slipping down the ladder and might not even start, with Blaszczykowski coming off a long-term injury and not having a single start under his belt. Both Kevin Grosskreutz and Kevin Kampl are injury doubts; if either were to start, both are better plays at this point than Mkhitarayan or Blaszczykowski. On the other hand, even with the difficult matchup it’s hard to fade Aubameyang from your plans if you’re using multiple lineups—getting to put him into a midfield slot as a lead striker is attractive, even with the difficult matchup. He’s got four goals in Dortmund’s last four league games, and Dortmund have to hope his speed can be the thing that breaks down Juventus.
Forward has two clear options, and another that will come clear once Massimiliano Allegri announces his starting lineup. Marco Reus ($8,900) has scored in each of Dortmund’s last three matches and is red hot, playing behind Aubameyang. For the hosts, Carlos Tevez ($8,100) has a lower ceiling than Reus, but has scored 19 goals in 28 goals this season and is a dangerous option that will likely be under-owned. The question mark is who partners Tevez in attack—you have Fernando Llorente ($6,400), who scored on the weekend for Juventus but is more of a complimentary player to Tevez, and Alvaro Morata ($5,200), who is a more outright scorer who got a goal in each of his last two starts. Morata is definitely a better DFS option and could be highly owned if he starts for those who are spending up elsewhere.
Bayer Leverkusen vs. Atletico Madrid
Atletico’s a road favorite in this match, but some injuries in midfield have the visitors a bit off-kilter in their trip to face Leverkusen. Short of one hiccup against Celta Vigo in league play, Atletico is playing well and is in the running for the title in La Liga while Bayer has only one once in five league matches since the German winter break.
There are a lot of useful players in this match that fall in that middle third of salary cost in the overall scheme of things, especially on both sides of the ball in attack. If you go with a balanced lineup, it’s hard to avoid this match to fill at least one midfield or striker spot each. But Atletico are favorites for a good reason—they’re the only team in this match that has an above average defense, especially looking at Bayer’s Bundesliga score lines from January and February.
It all starts in goal – Moya ($4,400) is a much better play than Bayer counterpart Bernd Leno ($4,300) despite the former being on the road. Leno’s given up nine goals in Bayer’s last three matches, and of those three Wolfsburg is near the talent level overall that Atletico bring to the table. Combine with that the production Atletico’s defense brought to the table during the group stage, and a stack of Moya, Juanfran ($5,300) and Guilherme Siqueira ($4,400) is hard to leave off the table. That isn’t even including central defender Diego Godin ($4,300), who because of his aerial scoring ability is an intriguing contrarian option to the outside backs for Atletico. Whoever starts for Bayer at outside back—be it Wendell ($3,000), Giulio Donati ($3,100) or midfielder Gonzalo Castro ($4,900), their ceiling is highly limited.
Koke ($7,700) is very doubtful with a hamstring injury that was suffered in that huge 4-0 win over Real Madrid on the seventh of this month, and it’s hard seeing Diego Simeone risking the talented midfielder when he has able bodies to use in his place. Tiago is a doubt in central midfield, so the value options in Atletico’s midfield is increased with the likely inclusion of the slightly more attacking Mario Suarez ($5,500). Suarez and Gabi ($5,000) are strong players, but might be employed more in this match to mark Bayer’s talented midfield options than getting forward as a group. On Tuesday, your better options are Saul Niguez ($4,700) and Arda Turan ($5,500), both of which could hit double digits. Niguez has been superb in Atletico’s last three matches, with a goal and an assist in the win over Real after coming on for Koke.
Bayer has their own talented plays in their front four, with midfielders Karim Bellarabi ($6,800) and Hakan Calhanoglu ($6,400) paired with forwards Heung-Min Son ($7,000) and either Stefan Kiessling ($6,700) or Josef Drmic ($3,300) as the lead striker. Both Bellarabi and Calhanoglu are talented players with production in the group stages; Calhanoglu took the only penalty Bayer has gotten between the Bundesliga and Champions League, for what it’s worth.
Kiessling is the more known, tried and true option at striker—but Drmic started this weekend and scored in a 2-2 draw with Augsburg in the Bundesliga. This is where things get tricky—if you want to use Drmic as an option, you have to a) use him as a Flex and b) hope he starts. If he does not, you’re either scrambling for a defender to fit into that slot, or leaving enough salary to find another option. It’s a very tough way to go. That $3,300 price DK gave the Swiss striker is very alluring, no doubt, especially if you’re spending up on some strikers from Barca/City.
I’m still much more interested in Atletico’s pair of strikers, Mario Mandzukic ($8,200) and Antoine Griezmann ($6,800). Both are on fire individually, with Griezmann’s pace and talent meshing well with the physicality and skill Mandzukic brings to the table. Griezmann had two this past weekend against Almeria, with Mandzukic setting up both and grabbing one of his own. Mandzukic is the better play of the two, but a mini-Atletico stack if you’re putting together multiple lineups is not out of the question.
Arsenal vs. Monaco
Stow the “parking the bus” jokes, people. It’s going to be a whole fleet at the Emirates by the visitors, really. Ultra-defensive, four goals in the group stage Monaco faces Arsenal in their first leg knowing any success will be keeping the score low and hoping for a scoreless draw, or a 1-0 loss as their best “worst case” scenario. The pressure really is on Arsenal in their home leg—run it up, put it out of reach now, or keep the door wide open for Monaco in the second leg.
Did I also mention the Arsene Wenger, former Monaco manager narrative? There’s that too.
Monaco options are few and far between in this one. Short of any surprises, Daniel Subasic ($3,700) is potentially the lowest priced starting keeper. Subasic had a very strong group stage for Monaco, and in the three games that Monaco did not win, he returned point production in the way of four, 13 and 11 points. Going Subasic, even on the road and with an unfavorable matchup, is not the worst decision on this slate. Without a win, Subasic’s ceiling is limited but he will be low-owned and going his way will allow you to spend elsewhere.
A thigh injury will likely see Layvin Kurzawa miss this one, so 19 year old Almamy Toure ($2,600) is set to take his place at left back with Fabinho ($3,300) at right back. Both Fabinho and Kurzawa were excellent point producers in the group stage for Monaco, but their opportunities going forward will be limited and a clean sheet is definitely in question, defensive stance or not. The rest of the starting lineup fits into the same MO—cheap, potential value, but not a lot of chances are likely for the attackers to grab that value for Monaco. Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco ($4,800) is easily the best option for Monaco, as he is not goal dependent to produce—but again, how many times will be there to pick up even peripheral points from crosses and fouls drawn If Arsenal have overwhelming possession? It is the same with the other two “attacking” midfielders that should start, Nabil Dirar ($4,000) and Bernado Silva ($3,000). And the biggest contrarian play of this slate at forward should be Dimitar Berbatov ($6,000) at striker. Monaco will have no possession, meaning Berbatov is likely to hover near the center circle a lot in between central defenders and see little of the ball. Berbatov could pick up a few fouls drawn, but that isn’t going to win you a GPP.
Arsenal are strong favorites for a good reason; however, try and avoid stacking Gunners unless you have multiple lineups in play. There’s just too high of a chance Monaco will hold them down enough to keep things “interesting” and in play for the second leg; a blowout is very unlikely. Ospina ($5,400) may have injured his back in the win over Crystal Palace the past weekend; if Ospina does not go, Wojciech Szczesny ($4,300) becomes a superb play—but short of kickoff on TUESDAY news of this comes through, using Szczesny and the extra salary just can’t be used. Best case scenario is that you include Ospina on your original lineup, and if he cannot go, pivot to Szczesny and use that extra grand elsewhere—but if you’re going this route, do your homework and allow yourself a separate pivot at defender/midfielder/attacker/flex in order to make sure of it.
Otherwise, it’s the names you know week in, week out from the Premiership to use in this favorable (albeit likely low-scoring) matchup. The ceiling is very limited for Arsenal defenders Nacho Monreal ($3,700), Hector Bellerin ($4,200), Calum Chambers ($4,600) and Laurent Koscielny ($3,800) — the ability to get a clean sheet is definitely in play, but otherwise there’s a real lack of consistent point production from crosses and the like from any Gunner defender. Koscielny does have goalscoring ability from set pieces, but he’s a play only if you’re betting on that taking place.
In midfield, you have the sterling silver pair of Mesut Ozil ($8,000) and Santi Cazorla ($7,800). Despite this past weekend’s actual results, Ozil remains the better bet on who produces. Ozil is likely to remain in the #10, with Cazorla in the deeper-lying spot alongside defensive midfielder Francis Coquelin. Both will see chances via free kicks, but Cazorla remains Arsenal’s penalty taker. Both remain strong plays, but gun to my head, I’d rather have Ozil in this one. For DK forward slots, we have Olivier Giroud ($8,100), Alexis Sanchez ($10,000) and either Danny Welbeck ($8,700) or Theo Walcott ($7,000) to choose from. Clearly, I’d go with Giroud from that group foremost, with his lead striker role combined with Sanchez’s salary and relative poor run of form as of late. Welbeck had a decent shift against Palace on the weekend, but on the wing is just isn’t DFS worth, especially at that salary. Not playing in the central forward role that Giroud is now occupying, Welbeck will likely land in single digits. Walcott, if given the start, has a much better upside in that role than Welbeck.