UFC 195: Lawler vs. Condit Beat Down - Part 2
Welcome to Part 2 of the UFC 195 Beat Down, in which I’ll break down the undercard fights of Lawler vs. Condit.
In my most recent episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, we had a special guest, Ryan McGillivray, a TUF 13 Quarterfinalist who was eliminated by Tony Ferguson, join us to break down the fights.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
UNDERCARD
Michael McDonald vs. Masanori Kanehara
Fight Odds: McDonald -550, Kanehara +425
Odds to finish: -155
Salaries: McDonald 11k, Kanehara 8.4k
Weight Class: 135
Only three fights removed from a title fight, Michael McDonald gets back in the Octagon to face veteran Masanori Kanehara. McDonald has been away on injury for the past two years, but the 24-year-old is still the heaviest favorite on the card by a wide margin, and a good target in DFS.
Currently a -600 favorite and climbing, McDonald is a very safe play in cash games, and with all the value this week, he’s extremely affordable. Kanehara isn’t a terrible striker, but McDonald should have the edge in this fight and I think a stoppage finish is very plausible.
Kanehara’s best route to win is by taking this fight to the ground and controlling McDonald, who also has a strong grappling game, but I think the younger fighter will be able to keep the fight standing and he should strike his way to a victory.
Fight Prediction: McDonald by TKO, RD 2
Kyle Noke vs. Alex Morono
Fight Odds: Noke -300, Morono +250
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Noke 8.5k, Morono 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
Every now and again we get the opportunity to roster a fighter who is severely mis-priced, and regardless of the outcome, it’s important to stick to the process and continue to target these mistakes.
I say that it’s important to stick to the process because lately, these pricing mistakes haven’t paid off those who targeted them. Kyle Noke was originally slated to face Kelvin Gastelum, and Noke was the biggest underdog on the card, so DraftKings priced him at 8.5k. When Gastelum came down with an injury, the UFC replaced him with newcomer Alex Morono, making Noke one of the largest favorites on the card.
But since the pricing had already been released, DK couldn’t change the salary on Noke and that is why he’s still 8.5k, along with his opponent. Long story short, based on Vegas odds, Noke should be priced at 10.8k.
Is Noke a MUST PLAY in cash games and tournaments? No, I hate labeling anyone a MUST and I say no because I think you can still build strong, viable lineups that don’t include Noke.
Is Noke a very viable option that should be strongly considered in both formats? Yes.
If I had to label him a must-play in one of those two scenarios, I’d definitely lean toward targeting him in cash games. You have to target multiple fighters below 9k and if you can get the second heaviest favorite for cheap, you might as well do it. The problem is his upside doesn’t jump off the paper and with so many other big names and high scoring fights, I don’t think as many people will lock him in. But again, for the price, he should be very, very strongly considered.
Fight Prediction: Noke by Decision
Justine Kish vs. Nina Ansaroff
Fight Odds: Kish -265, Ansaroff +225
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Kish 10.7k, Ansaroff 8.7k
Weight Class: 115
Justine Kish is making her UFC debut but she’s not an inexperienced fighter and that’s why Vegas set her line as a -265 favorite against Nina Ansaroff, who fought to a decision loss against Juliana Lima in her debut.
For this fight is best and most simply analyzed from a DFS perspective because there’s not a ton of fantasy prospects on first glance. Ansaroff isn’t a terrible fighter, but she has a very tae-kwon-do style striking game and I’m not sure how effective it will be against the likes of Kish or most UFC fighters. She’s effective as a submission grappler but her wrestling and scrambling leave plenty to be desired.
Kish is a power striker, grappler and clinch-fighter. She’s a power everything, and she’s tough and brings an aggressive style.
Even though both fighters bring “finishing potential,” it’s unlikely to assume that this fight will yield a quick finish, or a finish at all, and there’s not enough projected volume to target it in cash games.
For the price of 10.7k, Kish doesn’t jump off the page either, and there are much more likely finishers priced above and below here. With that said, I expect this fight to be extremely low owned, and Vegas still has the finish prop at +155. If you’re looking for a contrarian play with the potential to finish, this might be it, but it’s probably a reach I’m not willing to take.
There are just so many more reasonable options and so many fights that project to finish, and because of that, this fight holds little appeal.
Fight Prediction: Kish by Decision
Scott Holtzman vs. Drew Dober
Fight Odds: Holtzman -160, Dober +140
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Holtzman 10.4k, Dober 9k
Weight Class: 155
Scott Holtzman was able to submit Anthony Christodoulou in the third round in his UFC debut, but honestly, it wasn’t that impressive. Christodoulou is legitimately one of the worst fighters to step foot in the Octagon, and unless Holtzman was purposely playing it safe, his upside is limited.
Drew Dober is another fighter who’s looked less than impressive lately, and although he’s not a contender in this division, he’s actually a solid, well-rounded fighter with capable kickboxing. As long as this fight stays standing, Dober should have the edge. Holtzman will attempt strikes to get in the clinch and work his takedowns, and might very well succeed, but that isn’t enough offense for me to target him.
I don’t think Dober has enough upside either, but I think he’s the better play of the two. The fight comes down to where the exchanges will take place, and I’ll give Dober the edge, but I won’t be targeting this fight in DFS.
Fight Prediction: Dober by Decision
Dustin Poirier vs. Joe Duffy
Fight Odds: Duffy -190, Poirier +165
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Duffy 10.6k, Poirier 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
Dam, this is a great fight huh? Second time is the charm.
Dustin Poirier has looked great since he moved up to the 155 division, but he still has some defensive holes in his game that make me question how he’ll hold up against a talented striker. Offensively, Poirier has a diverse striking game and he’s tough, and his ground stills are high-level.
Joe Duffy, aka the last man to beat Conor McGregor, has looked great since his UFC debut where he’s earned two quick finishes. His most recent submission over bjj blackbelt Ivan Jorge, where he transitioned to the triangle and grabbed hold of Jorge’s leg to cut off the angle, was impressive to say the least.
Duffy also stands in a classic boxers stance with his chin tucked behind his shoulder, and his striking is technical enough to continue to earn wins in the UFC.
The big question here is that Duffy hasn’t fought anyone as skilled as Poirier, even if he’s looked great against weak competition. Poirier is no joke, and we’ve seen the odds shifting toward making this fight an even contest.
From a DFS perspective, I think this fight is a near must-play in tournaments, and I’d be shocked to see it end in a decision. Poirier has been finished several times, and Duffy is coming off a concussion KO in camp, which tells me his chin clearly isn’t granite.
I expect these fighters to engage in a fast paced war and I think eventually, someone will land the finishing strikes. Even though it’s a big step up, I’m going to give a slight lean to Duffy because I think Poirier’s defense is still in question, and he’s been more than hittable throughout his career.
Bottom line- target both sides.
Fight Prediction: Duffy by TKO, RD 1
Joe Soto vs. Michinori Tanaka
Fight Odds: Soto -110, Tanaka -110
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Soto 9.7k, Tanaka 9.7k
Weight Class: 135
Joe Soto is only two fights removed from his title fight against TJ Dillashaw where he fought well until getting TKO’d, but his last performance, a quick KO loss to Anthony Birchak, is more than troubling.
Soto is a good fighter, well-rounded, but his chin is poor and that’s concerning, even though Michinori Tanaka doesn’t have the striking on paper to land a knockout. With so many fights on this card that have potential to finish, I’m not sure that targeting this one is a good idea.
Tanaka has crept to a slight favorite according to Vegas, and I think he’s the target based on value, put I probably won’t have exposure to this fight. While the fight stays standing, I think Soto has the edge and if he can keep it there, he’s likely to win a decision. But Tanaka has an excellent ground game and he’ll be looking to get the fight to the ground, where he’ll attempt to work submissions. Even though Soto is a decent grappler, I think Tanaka is capable enough to force some exchanges on the ground.
Fight Prediction: Tanaka by Decision
Sheldon Westcott vs. Edgar Garcia
Fight Odds: Westcott -160, Garcia +140
Odds to finish: -225
Salaries: Westcott 10.2k, Garcia 9.2k
Weight Class: 170
Watching Sheldon Westcott fight can either be extremely exciting or extremely painful – he has a Plan A and no Plan B or C, and if Plan A doesn’t work, he’ll continue to use it until he wins or gets finished.
And it’s tough to analyze him because although he’s not that skilled, he has a couple features that make him a tremendously difficult opponent. For one, he’s ultra-aggressive, as aggressive as anyone I’ve ever seen fight in the Octagon, and he’s tough. He channels that aggression into securing takedowns, that’s his one and only goal. If he can’t get the takedown, he’ll remain clinched and try and try and continue to try to earn the takedown.
With that said, I think it’s a distinct possibility that Westcott earns a quick takedown, looks for a sub and gets a finish, and for that reason, I think he’s an elite GPP play.
Edgar Garcia is making his second stint in the UFC, and so far, he’s a combined 0-3, with a disappointing submission loss to Hector Urbina in his secondary debut. He’s a powerful striker, but his overall game isn’t super impressive, and I strongly question whether he’ll be able to stifle the aggressive attack of Westcott.
If Garcia can hold off the takedowns and pick his shots, I can see him wearing Westcott down and potential winning by TKO, but that feels like a long shot to me. Westcott does have a very real issue with his cardio, in part because he fights so hard early on, and if he gasses, Garcia will have the ability to take advantage.
But I expect Westcott to earn some takedowns, and have enough cardio left in the tank to earn a decision if he can’t snatch up a quick sub. Avoid this fight in cash games, but target both sides in tournaments, especially Westcott.
Fight Prediction: Westcott by RNC, RD 1