UFC 196: McGregor vs. Diaz Beat Down
HAPPY MCGREGOR WEEK!
Thanks for joining me for another edition of the UFC Beat Down for UFC 196. It should be a great card even with the late changes.
If you’d like to watch the latest episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast I recorded with LeRoiStephon, please click here. Please follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
Fight Odds: McGregor -420, Diaz +375
Odds to finish: -420
Salaries: McGregor 11k, Diaz 8.4k
Weight Class: 170
Sure, it’s not Conor McGregor vs. Rafael Dos Anjos for the 155 belt, but Nate Diaz is a fun guy to watch whether you love him or hate him, and I think this will be an interesting scrap, especially considering the fact that McGregor is mooing up two full weight classes.
To be honest, I really don’t think that’s going to be an issue. It’s not like he ever weighed 145 pounds besides the two minutes that he had to weigh in, and he was always drained. He’s clearly packed on a ton of muscle, and I don’t think the weight factor has much relevance in this bout.
From a matchup perspective, I think this fight favors McGregor as the odds indicate. Diaz is a tough SOB and that’s the most interesting part of this matchup. Only one UFC fighter has made it to a decision against McGregor, and considering this fight is five rounds, I think that will be a challenge for Diaz.
Pretty much the only thing that Diaz has to offer outside of his toughness is his combination boxing and endurance. He can throw a lot of significant strikes and he can stick around for a while without getting tired. If McGregor stood in front of him and took the shots, I guess Diaz would have a good shot. Unfortunately for Diaz, I don’t see that happening.
Diaz is also a high-level jiu-jitsu grappler but I give him little to no chance to get the fight on the ground, and I doubt McGregor takes it there, although that wouldn’t completely shock me like it might others.
The biggest challenge I see Diaz facing and the reason I’m not very high on him, even in a five-round fight, is that it’s going to be extremely difficult for him to get inside the range of McGregor without getting hit. McGregor fights with a very awkward style for his opponents and Diaz is going to have to wade through it to land punches. When he does, I see McGregor hitting Diaz with clean and powerful shots.
Another issue is that Diaz really lacks significant knockout power, which is something McGregor excels in, and I think that for every punch landed by each, McGregor’s will be much more damaging. Obviously I think McGregor is a great play this weekend and I expect his ownership levels to be sky-high, even with a high price. It will be a tough decision to fade him in cash games or tournaments, and it’s not something I recommend.
Fight Prediction: McGregor by TKO, RD 2
Holly Holm vs. Meisha Tate
Fight Odds: Holme -350, Tate +290
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Holm 10.8k, Tate 8.6k
Weight Class: 135
Oh man, I can’t wait to relive the Rousey/Holm madness and my incorrect, exaggerative verbiage as I examined that fight. But alas, it’s time to move on from the past and look forward to Holly Holm’s title defense against Meisha Tate.
This matchup is relatively simple from a stylistic perspective. It’s a striker vs. grappler matchup.
Holm is obviously the better striker and if she can control range the way she did against Rousey, it’s going to be a very tough night for Tate. There’s also not much secret sauce behind Holm’s gameplan. She wants the fight on the feet and she’s going to try and expose Tate with her boxing and kickboxing.
Tate has always been a hittable striker because that’s not her specialty, so that doesn’t give me a ton of hope. However, Tate does excel on the ground, and if she can get the fight there, she’ll have a great opportunity to take the title home. But Rousey couldn’t take Holm down, and neither has anyone else in the UFC, but I don’t think that means she’s incapable of being taken down.
This is still the fighter who won a close split decision against Raquel Pennington who clinched with Holm and shoved her against the cage, and I don’t think it’s impossible Tate could match that style and win a few rounds.
From a DFS perspective, I think both fighters are in play. Holm is expensive but she’s a heavy favorite and I think she’ll be popular. I think both girls are better served as cash plays because I’m not expecting Holm to score a quick knockout in the first or second round. She does strike at an insanely high volume though, so even in a decision, Holm could put up a big number.
My main worry is that people are just thinking about the Holm-Rousey fight and think that Holm is going to knock out everyone in her path. Sure, Tate is hittable and an early knockout isn’t that crazy of a prediction, but Tate is also super game and super tough, and I could see her coming in with a smart game plan and dragging this fight out.
Based on the fact that Holm’s takedown defense has been incredible and she’ll have a huge striking advantage, I have to pick her. I’ll even pick her by late knockout. But I’m very interested to see what kind of attack Tate uses and whether she’ll be able to expose Holm.
Fight Prediction: Holm by TKO, RD 4
Gian Villante vs. Ilir Latifi
Fight Odds: Latifi -190, Villante +165
Odds to finish: -300
Salaries: Latifi 10.2k, Villante 9.2k
Weight Class: 205
Both Gian Villante and Ilir Latifi are coming off TKO victories in their most recent fights, and if we’re to believe Vegas, there’s a good chance this fight ends in a similar fashion.
Villante, a.k.a Chris Weidman’s BFF, is the higher volume striker of the two but he’s not one to land a devastating knockout out of nowhere. He usually grinds his way to victory and if he beats Latifi, that’s how I expect it to happen.
Latifi on the other hand doesn’t strike at a high volume but he packs dynamite in his fists, and that’s a major concern for Villante. Latifi could easily come into this fight and land a couple hard shots early and put Villante away. He’s build like a brick house and is arguably one of the strongest fighters in the UFC. I’m not sold on who has the wrestling advantage in this fight but I really can’t see Villante playing much in top position.
From a DFS perspective I think Latifi makes for a great GPP play and I expect him to be popular. He has legitimate upside to finish this fight in the first round and that’s all we can ask for. I’m not as high on Villante because I don’t think he’s as capable of finishing the fight, and I’m very concern about how his chin will hold up against the power punches Latifi will throw his way.
Fight Prediction: Latifi by TKO, RD 1
Corey Anderson vs. Tom Lawlor
Fight Odds: Anderson -300, Lawlor +250
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Anderson 10.6k, Lawlor 8.8k
Weight Class: 205
Since winning The Ultimate Fighter, Corey Anderson has been impressive inside the Octagon, with his only blemish coming by way of a third round TKO loss to Gian Villante.
Anderson is very well rounded and he has the ability to beat opponents on the feet or on the mat, which is a great asset to have. He strikes at a high volume, 5.37 significant strikes per minute to be exact, and that intrigues me from a DFS perspective.
Tom Lawlor came off a two-year hiatus to knock out Villante in his return, but he was losing both rounds of that fight until the finishing punch landed. I’m honestly not sure what he has to offer Anderson.
Anderson put up a solid fight against Villante and beat Jan Blachowicz and Fabio Maldonado with ease, and I don’t think Lawlor is a step up. If this fight stays standing, I expect Anderson to out-strike Lawlor and land more damage. He also can take the fight to the ground if he wants, and I doubt Lawlor has the tools to stuff him.
I don’t see any reason to target Lawlor in this bout because I don’t think he has anything more than a puncher’s chance to win. My only concern with Anderson is that he doesn’t have the highest finish rate, but for his price, he’s in play in all formats.
Fight Prediction: Anderson by Decision
Amanda Nunes vs. Valentina Shevchenko
Fight Odds: Nunes -155, Shevchenko +135
Odds to finish: -155
Salaries: Nunes 9.9k, Shevchenko 9.5k
Weight Class: 135
Just by looking at the odds you can tell how strong of a fighter Valentina Shevchenko is. She’s only a +135 underdog against Amanda Nunes who has crushed many top fighters in her path and is probably one fight away from a title shot.
The M.O on Nunes is that she’s aggressive and dangerous early on in fights, and thats why she has 10 first round stoppages to her name. In fact, in her last nine fights, Nunes has either won by first round stoppage (6 times) or lost (3 times).
Shevchenko came on short notice to make her UFC debut against Sarah Kaufman, and she won that fight impressively, using more than just her “World Championship” muay-thai. She tossed Kaufman to the ground several times and looked like a very strong and well-rounded mixed martial artist.
Shevchenko fights very compact and keeps her hands up at range, and she’s at her best in the clinch where she can express her muay-thai. I’m not sure that Nunes’ wild striking will be able to do much damage at rage because of that. The biggest concern I have for Shevchenko is that Nunes will bull rush her and take her down, and land the damaging ground-and-pound.
I also think it’s possible that Shevchenko takes Nunes to the ground, which would make the fight interesting, but my guess is that this fight takes place a lot in the clinch.
From a DFS perspective, I’m not that high on Shevchekno because even if she wins it’s very unlikely to be a finish, and she doesn’t strike at a high enough volume to make up for it. Nunes is always a strong GPP play because of her high finish rate, but I really have a hard time seeing her finish this fight quickly.
If the fight gets into the latter rounds, I’m not sure that Nunes will have the cardio or strength to keep up with Shevchekno. I expect Nunes to come out of the gate strong, but if she can’t get that finish, we may see a very close decision on the score cards.
Fight Prediction: Shevchenko by Decision
UNDERCARD
Brandon Thatch vs. Siyar Bahadurzada
Fight Odds: Thatch -290, Bahadurzada +245
Odds to finish: -350
Salaries: Thatch 10.9k, Bahadurzada 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
Two strikers in Brandon Thatch and Siyar Bahadurzada make for great GPP plays in my opinion. I’m not sure how to manage Thatch because he’s priced at 10.9k, which is second behind only Conor McGregor.
Thatch has lost his last two fights and he sits between McGregor and Holm in price, which really makes me think he’ll low owned.
Bahadurzada hasn’t fought since 2013 and this is a really tough match to come back to. Thatch should be the aggressor in this fight where he’s had previous success, and he also lands at a much higher volume. I expect him to push for the finish and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets it.
One thing that concerns me is that he SUPPOSEDLY needed a certain heart medication to fight, which the Pennsylvania commission wouldn’t let him take, and that’s why the fight was moved to Vegas. I won’t read too much into it but it’s still in the back of my mind.
Bahadurzada is only +330 to win inside which is pretty good for a heavy underdog. I think he’s worth a shot in GPPs, although I do expect Thatch to win. It will be tough to pay up for him and McGregor/Holm, but I think he makes for a good contrarian option if you want to fade one of the two.
Fight Prediction: Thatch by TKO, RD 1
Erick Silva vs. Nordine Taleb
Fight Odds: Silva -210, Taleb +175
Odds to finish: -180
Salaries: Silva 10.3k, Taleb 9.1k
Weight Class: 170
I think this fight between Erick Silva and Nordine Taleb is fairly straightforward from a DFS perspective. Silva is one of the most dangerous first-round fighters in the UFC and for his price of 10.3k, he’s an absolutely elite tournament play.
Nordine Taleb is a GOOD fighter but he’s not great anywhere and I don’t think he’ll be able to compete with the athleticism or aggression of Silva. Silva has already beaten much tougher fighters than Taleb, and he very well make quick work of Taleb.
I think the best route for Silva is to take Taleb down and look for a submission but it’s possible Silva lands some damaging shots on the feet and finishes there. The main issue with Silva is that if he doesn’t win quickly, he’s often tires and loses, and there was speculation that he had been on PED’s for quite some time.
With all that said, I just don’t think Taleb has the skills to beat a fighter like Silva and it will be all the Brazilian for me on DraftKings.
Fight Prediction: Silva by Guillotine, RD 1
Vitor Miranda vs. Marcelo Guimaraes
Fight Odds: Miranda -280, Guimaraes +240
Odds to finish: -120
Salaries: Miranda 10.7k, Guimaraes 8.7k
Weight Class: 185
Vitor Miranda is another higher priced option who could reasonably earn a quick finish against Marcelo Guimaraes. Miranda is a bit easier on the pocket to pay for at 10.7k, and I don’t think he’ll be too popular, but he has one of the higher finish props on the card.
Guimaraes has earned a couple wins in the UFC but they were split decisions against fighters who are no longer in the UFC. What’s interesting is that Guimaraes is a good grappler, that’s his strength, but he doesn’t really choose to use it. If he chooses to stand and bang with Miranda, that’s a recipe to get knocked out because Miranda is certainly the superior striker.
If Guimaraes comes in with a grappling based gameplan I think he can make the fight competitive, but I’m not confident in that at all and I don’t think he has enough upside to warrant heavy exposure. Miranda has equally high upside as Thatch, Latifi etc. and I think he’s a good play in all formats.
Fight Prediction: Miranda by TKO, RD 2
Darren Elkins vs. Chas Skelly
Fight Odds: Skelly -150, Elkins +130
Odds to finish: +155
Salaries: Skelly 10.1k, Elkins 9.3k
Weight Class: 145
Chas Skelly has won four fights in a row and finished three of them, but I think this fight against Darren Elkins is a tough match and it’s not one I’m high on from a fantasy perspective.
Skelly is a good grappler, and he has power in his hands, but he’s a risk taker. Elkins is a super-aggressive wrestler that’s tough to finish and tough to impose a gameplan on.
I’m not sure who’s going to win this fight, I think it’s a close one, but I don’t think targeting a fight with Elkins is a good idea. This fight will very likely end by decision and it’s possible the winner won’t eclipse 60 points. This is a fade for me.
Fight Prediction: Skelly by Decision
Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller
Fight Odds: Miller -140, Sanchez +120
Odds to finish: +170
Salaries: Miller 10k, Sanchez 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
For all the interesting fights on this card, we can safely label this one the battle of the old folks. Both Diego Sanchez and Jim Miller have been around the fight game for a long time, but I don’t think they pack too much fantasy value here.
Sanchez hasn’t evolved as a fighter in quite some time but he always puts up a fight and is extremely tough to finish. He’s never been knocked out or submitted in the UFC and I don’t expect Miller to be the first. Miller is a high level grappler and usually relies on his submission grappling game, but Sanchez is a strong ground fighter as well.
This is one of the most likely fights to end by decision on the card and for that reason, I won’t be exposed to it.
Fight Prediction: Miller by Decision
Jason Saggo vs. Justin Salas
Fight Odds: Saggo -190, Salas +165
Odds to finish: -120
Salaries: Saggo 10.4k, Salas 9k
Weight Class: 155
I think Jason Saggo makes for a super sneaky GPP play against Justin Salas this weekend. Neither fighter has fought inside the Octagon since late 2014, and while that adds to the risk, I think both have upside and especially Saggo.
Saggo is coming off a split decision loss to Paul Felder where he landed six takedowns and knockdown and looked pretty impressive. Salas is a decent wrestler but I if he gets put on his back, I think Saggo’s grappling will take over and he will probably finish by submission.
Salas does have the power in his hands to finish and if he keeps the fight standing, it could be a close fight, but I think Saggo is the much better fighter overall and with his expected suppressed ownership, I will be riding him in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Saggo by RNC, RD 1
Julian Erosa vs. Teruto Ishihara
Fight Odds: Erosa -230, Ishihara +190
Odds to finish: Erosa 10.5k, Ishihara 8.9k
Salaries: +115
Weight Class: 145
This is an interesting fight between two lower-level prospects in Julian Erosa and Teruto Ishihara. Erosa came from TUF and won his debut against Marcin Wrzosek by split decision, while Ishihara scored a draw in the TUF Japan Finale against Mizuto Hirota.
Ishihara is a young with a big attitude and a wild striking style. He has really good movement and fast strikes, so the upside is there, but he definitely has some work to do. He often keeps his hands low which makes him easy to hit, and I’m not sure he has the cardio to go three rounds in a typical UFC fight.
Erosa is also a striker and although I don’t think he’s more powerful, he probably has the better technique and is definitely the stronger clinch striker. If this fight stays on the feet it would be an extremely close fight to call. I would give the lean to Erosa because of his inside game, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Ishihara score two rounds on the cards.
With that said, both fighters have below-average takedown defense, but where Erosa is much better is with his offensive wrestling game. I don’t think it will be his primary game plane unfortunately, but I think he can get Ishihara to the ground fairly easily and probably submit him from top or in a scramble.
From a DraftKings perspective I think Ishihara is worth a look in cash games and GPPs for his price, even though I don’t expect him to win. He’s a high output striker and has the power to potentially land some damaging strikes against Erosa who is hittable as well.
I think Erosa makes for a strong tournament play because he has the upside to score an early submission.
Fight Prediction: Erosa by D’arce Choke, RD 2