UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux Beat Down
Welcome back friends and foes (hopefully not too many of you are foes) to another edition of the UFC Beat Down.
It’s a big fight week and that means DraftKings will be popping. They’ve already released a $150k tournament with 15k going to the winner, which is great news for the MMA community as the sport is obviously continuing to grow. As usual, I’ll have my content out early and often this week, starting with the main card version of the Beat Down.
I’ll be coming out with the undercard version later in the week, as well as an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, and an episode of The Daily Fantasy Takedown. Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and DailyFanMMA if you want instant access to all this amazing content, as well as other insight and probably some hilarious jokes along the way.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Jon Jones vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Fight Odds: Jones -550, Saint Preux +425
Odds to finish: -750
Salaries: Jones 11.4k, Saint Preux 8k
Weight Class: 205
He’s baaaaaack, much to the shigrin of his haters, which I’m proud to say I’m one of. Yes, Jon Jones has finally returned to the Octagon to claim the interim belt against Ovince Saint Preux before claiming his old title against Daniel Corimer, in all likelihood.
While the fight versus Cormier would have been much more interesting and closely contested, it’s nice to have one of the best fighters in the world back in the UFC. If you want to roster Jones this weekend it’s going to cost you a pretty penny, 11.4k to be exact.
Regardless of that cost, I expect Jones to be one of, if not the most popular fighter on the slate, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him surpass the 70% mark. Does that make him a good fade? Maybe, but his floor and upside are so high that he’s going to be a cash game lock for me and probably one of my heaviest tournament options.
From a matchup perspective, OSP’s best and only real shot to win is landing that pure knockout. He’s not going to be able to get Jones to the mat, and I can’t see him out-striking the former champ, especially in a five round fight.
What’s most likely from my view, is Jones clearly winning the striking the battle until OSP gets tired, which will probably occur before the end of the third round. If he hasn’t finished him by that point, Jones will either TKO the exhausted Saint Preux or take him down and lock in a submission.
OSP makes for an OK cash play because of his price and five-round opportunity, but he’s not even a lock for me there, and I’m not going to have any of him in tournaments.
Enjoy what is most likely to be a one-sided beatdown and take the top option on the night in Jones as much as you can afford him.
Fight Prediction: Jones by Arm-Triangle, RD 2
Demetrious Johnson vs. Henry Cejudo
Fight Odds: Johnson -440, Cejudo +350
Odds to finish: +150
Salaries: Johnson 11k, Cejudo 8.4k
Weight Class: 125
I’ve said from his debut that I think Henry Cejudo can challenge for the title, and here he is, one win against Demetrious Johnson away from holding the 125 lb. belt.
But while Mighty Mouse is still alive and breathing and competing the Octagon, he’s a massive, massive test to get through. Even as an Olympic champion with solid boxing skills and an un-blemished record, Cejudo is a +350 underdog.
Even with his wrestling pedigree, I’m still not sure that Cejudo will have the advantage in grappling against Johnson, and I venture to guess that DJ will actually land more takedowns in the fight than Cejudo will. GASP.
The main problem for Cejudo is that DJ is as close to a technical master as there is in the UFC, and it’s extremely difficult to gain a significant advantage on him anywhere. I think DJ has the speed and precision to out-strike Cejudo for five rounds, and that’s a likely outcome.
Cejudo’s best opportunity, like OSP, is to land a knockout, but Vegas gave him a +1200 chance to win inside the distance, which is horrible. I can potentially see Cejudo winning 3/5 rounds but that’s still a difficult task.
From a DFS perspective, this is a great fight to stack in cash games as it’s likely to go to a decision. I think Cejudo will be the more popular play in general and in GPPs and that’s fine with me. Mighty Mouse will be one of my secondary tournament options because he’s capable of scoring 100+ points, and I think he’ll be lower owned than some of the other top options.
This is definitely a fight to have exposure to in all formats, but I’d be careful about over-targeting Cejudo
Fight Prediction Johnson by Decision
Anthony Pettis vs. Edson Barboza
Fight Odds: Pettis -175, Barboza +155
Odds to finish: -145
Salaries: Pettis 10.6k, Barboza 8.8k
Weight Class: 155
This should be a pretty exciting fight between Anthony Pettis and Edson Barboza, and it’s an interesting one to break down from a DFS perspective.
Pettis is one of the biggest names on the card, and I expect him to be popular even though he’s priced up at 10.6k. He’s only -175 to beat Barboza and carries a finish prop of +125, which is his saving grace.
In a three round fight, in this matchup, I’m going to be honest, I don’t really like Pettis. Barboza is a very competent striker and he doesn’t usually take a lot of damage, and Pettis only lands 2.32 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.93 of Barboza.
Of course, I think Pettis is one of the top fighters in the division and I’m not saying he can’t win or finish this fight, but it just doesn’t jump off the page to me as a fantastic matchup.
I actually think Pettis’ best shot to earn an early finish is by way of submission, but I highly, highly doubt he looks to get the fight to the ground after succumbing to two consecutive fights via takedown. My assumption is that he’ll want to get back to his strength and test his standup, and I wouldn’t be surprised if “I believe I can fly” is playing in his head during the fight.
Back to DFS.. I wouldn’t touch Pettis in cash games for his price, but I think he’s viable in tournaments, even though his upside doesn’t do enough for me compared to his projected ownership. I think Barboza, however, is a strong play for his bottom-barrel price tag of 8.8k.
Barboza most likely won’t finish Pettis in a win, but I think it’s possible he out-strikes him to a decision, and that should be enough to pay off.
Fight Prediction: Pettis by Decision
Robert Whittaker vs. Rafael Natal
Fight Odds: Whittaker -345, Natal +285
Odds to finish: -155
Salaries: Whittaker 10.7k, Natal 8.7k
Weight Class: 185
Robert Whittaker is one of my favorite fighters in the middleweight division and I believe in his talent. I guess part of my admiration comes from the fact that I successfully touted him against Brad Tavares and Uriah Hall, and he came through for me.
Bias aside, ever since he’s moved up to 185, he’s shown off strong boxing and knockout power, and he’s only improving. Rafael Natal on the other hand is 33-years-old and doesn’t posses any skills that scare me.
Natal has fought 14 times in the UFC, and he’s won nine of them, but he’s only finished one fight by submission and one by TKO, which was his most recent bout against Kevin Casey.
He’s also been knocked out four times in his career, so he’s definitely not impenetrable.
Even though he’s only $100 more expensive than Pettis, Whittaker is a -345 favorite with a -140 prop to win inside distance, and that screams “target” to me. Whittaker lands at 4.77 significant strikes per minute, which is one of the highest on the card, and although he absorbs a bit too many strikes, I’m not scared of Natal’s power.
Natal’s best opportunity to win is by taking the fight to the floor, but I just don’t see him being able to keep it there, or land enough strikes in the interim to make him worth a play. As you expected, I think Whittaker is viable in all formats, and he’s a great tier 2 fighter to target if you don’t want to spend all the way up to Jones or DJ.
Fight Prediction: Whittaker by TKO, RD 2
Yair Rodriguez vs. Andre Fili
Fight Odds: Rodriguez -150, Fili +130
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Rodriguez 10.5k, Fili 8.9k
Weight Class: 145
Andre Fili has fought five times in the UFC and he’s won three of them, including TKOs against Gabriel Benitez and Jeremy Larsen. He lost an understandable fight to Max Holloway in which he was submitted in the third round, and he lost to Godofredo Pepey by flying triangle, so I don’t take that much away from that fight either.
I’ve followed Fili’s career since before he entered the UFC and I think he’s extremely talented, and I like the fact that he’s aggressive, he pushes forward to finish, and he trains out of a great camp in Team Alpha Male. Sure he has flaws, but he shouldn’t be overlooked, especially in DFS.
Yair Rodriguez really came onto the scene in his fight against Charles Rosa, where he showed highlight-reel, wreckless aggression and skill in all areas. He only won by split decision in that fight but he caught the UFCs attention for sure.
Against Dan Hooker, he didn’t show as much aggression and he didn’t look nearly as good. His best offensive threat is his submission game, especially from his back, but he’s also a bit too content to play on the ground.
On the feet, I think Fili is the better striker and I expect him to touch Rodriguez up a bit. Fili has been submitted a few times and that’s definitely a plausible scenario if Rodriguez is to finish the fight, but I see this going to a decision otherwise.
For the price, Fili is one of my top values on the board because even if he wins a striking battle and it goes to decision, he can still put up 75 points. I won’t be rostering Rodriguez because I just don’t think the upside is enough compared to the price.
I’m trusting the more experienced fighter here and taking the price savings along with it.
Fight Prediction: Fili by Decision