UFC 197: Beat Down (UNDERCARD)
It’s a big fight week and that means DraftKings will be popping. They’ve already released a $150k tournament with 15k going to the winner, which is great news for the MMA community as the sport is obviously continuing to grow.
Onto the fights!
UNDERCARD
Sergio Pettis vs. Chris Kelades
Fight Odds: Pettis -240, Kelades +200
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Pettis 10.1k, Kelades 9.3k
Weight Class: 125
The Pettis bros are back on the same card as little Sergio takes on the gritty Chris Kelades. Last time both Pettis bros fought on the same night, Anthony lost his title and Sergio got knocked out, so hopefully this time around is better for them.
While I think Pettis is capable of winning, I’m not super confident in the pick because Kelades is extremely tough and he will be a big test for Pettis.
Kelades has already grinded out victories against Paddy Holohan and Chris Beal, and he fought well against Ray Borg who was supposed to crush him. Pettis has had his ups and downs, most recently earning a unanimous decision against Chris Cariaso.
From a DFS perspective, I don’t want much to do with this fight. I compare Kelades to Jared Rosholt in a sense because regardless of who he’s facing, he will limit the upside of the entire fight. I don’t expect this fight to end in a finish and it most likely will be low scoring. For those reasons, I’ll look somewhere else in both cash games and GPPs.
Fight Prediction: Pettis by Decision
Danny Roberts vs. Dominique Steele
Fight Odds: Roberts -370, Steele +310
Odds to finish: -150
Salaries: Roberts 10.4k, Steele 9k
Weight Class: 170
Danny Roberts will be a popular play this weekend and rightfully so, as he’s severely underpriced against Dominique Steele.
“Hot Chocolate” Roberts is an exciting and aggressive striker and that’s what he was tagged as coming into the UFC, but he showed off some impressive jiu-jitsu with a quick triangle victory in his debut.
Steele is coming off a TKO against Dong Hyun-Kim (the second one) but he was KO’d in seconds the fight previous by Zak Cummings.
Steele is a solid wrestler and capable striker but his upside is limited and I don’t think he’ll have the striking skills to compete with Roberts on the feet. If the fight stays standing, which I expect it to, Roberts will most likely earn himself a TKO.
I think that Steele can get the fight to the ground if he’s on his A game but I don’t think he can hold Roberts down or do any sort of damage. Based on odds to win and finish alone, Roberts makes for a great play, but this matchup suits him well and I’ll have heavy exposure to him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Roberts by TKO, RD 2
Carla Esparza vs. Juliana Lima
Fight Odds: Esparza -185, Lima +160
Odds to finish: +175
Salaries: Esparza 10.2k, Lima 9.2k
Weight Class: 115
Carla Esparza hasn’t fought since she lost the title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but she’s back in action this weekend against Juliana Lima.
Both girls are wrestling based and I expect this fight to be extremely close and low scoring for fantasy purposes. This is one of the few fights I’m comfortable completely fading because I just don’t see the upside for either girl, and there isn’t enough price value on either.
Fight Prediction: Esparza by Decision
Glaico Franca vs. James Vick
Fight Odds: Vick -175, Franca +155
Odds to finish: +100
Salaries: Vick 10.9k, Franca 8.5k
Weight Class: 155
This fight between Glaico Franca and James Vick is a tough one to call and you can analyze it from a couple different angles.
For one, Vick is priced up pretty significantly compared to his -175 odds, and there’s price value on Franca for 8.5k. That alone suggests Franca is a viable play.
But Franca is a grappling based fighter and I don’t expect him to land a ton of strikes in a decision. Can he get a submission or TKO victory? I’m not seeing it.
Vick on the other hand has submitted Jake Matthews and Nick Hein and I can definitely see him earning a submission if Franca attempts a sloppy takedown. And I think Vick will be completely overlooked and under owned because he’s expensive, and there are much stronger plays both above and below him.
I like Vick as a contrarian GPP option because I think he has upside, and I don’t mind Franca as a punt if you need the savings, but other than that, I’m not super high on this fight.
Fight Prediction: Vick by Decision
Walt Harris vs. Cody East
Fight Odds: East -155, Harris +135
Odds to finish: -485
Salaries: Harris 9.8k, East 9.6k
Weight Class: HW
Cody East is yet another fighter to be brought in from the reality show “Looking for a Fight,” and the UFC gave him a great matchup in his debut against Walt Harris.
It’s not that this is a cupcake fight and East is a lock to win, because after all this is the HW division, but this definitely looks like a fight East should win on paper. He’s a pretty fluid striker with good movement for his size, and he’s aggressive on the feet.
Harris has already fought in the UFC three times and he’s 0-3, and my biggest concern is that fact that he doesn’t appear to take a punch well. I think it’s very likely that East blitzes him in the first round and wins by TKO, and Vegas backs that up.
For the price value and upside on East, he’s an absolute elite tournament play and I even think he’s cash viable. Harris is a very strong GPP play as well, especially if you factor in ownership percentage.
I’ve been saying it a lot lately but people seem to overlook the underdog in close fights where there’s an obvious pick, and I could potentially see the ownership super heavy on East compared to Harris. I still really like him but I think exposure to both in GPPs is wise.
Fight Prediction: East by TKO, RD 1
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs. Clint Hester
Fight Odds: Lima -135, Hester +115
Odds to finish: -350
Salaries: Lima 10k, Hester 9.4k
Weight Class: 205
I’ve gone back and forth on who I think will win between Marcos Rogerio de Lima and Clint Hester but I know this, you should target this fight in tournaments.
Not only is this a fight with a -350 prop to end inside the distance, but it’s a close contest and I expect ownership to be relatively split. Neither fighter costs more than 10k and it’s very likely that one of the two end up on winning GPP rosters.
Lima is definitely the stronger puncher of the two, and he’s definitely a finish or be finished fighter. Hester doesn’t have the best striking defense and I could easily see de Lima landing a huge shot early and putting Hester’s lights out.
On the other end, I hear Hester is training with ATT now and looking good, so if he makes improvements on his last few performances, I think he can get past de Lima. His best attributes lie with his striking as well but he tried to be a grappler in his last bout against Vitor Miranda and ended up getting himself TKO’d.
I’m not sure Hester has the power punching to finish de Lima quickly, but if this fight lasts longer than a round, I think he’ll have a great chance to show his cardio and get a finish.
To summarize, both fighters are highly relevant in GPPs, and I’m going to give the edge to de Lima. I think his upside is a bit higher, but I will have exposure to both.
Fight Prediction: Lima by TKO, RD 1
Efrain Escudero vs. Kevin Lee
Fight Odds: Lee -420, Escudero +335
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Lee 10.3k, Escudero 9.1k
Weight Class: 155
It makes me nervous that this is the first fight of the night because I probably will have limited exposure to it.
Kevin Lee comes into this bout against Efrain Escudero as a -420 favorite, which is a bit ridiculous, and he’s a huge price value based on those odds. His odds to finish, however, aren’t great, and I don’t see this is a fantastic matchup for fantasy purposes.
Lee is a decent striker but he’s a very strong wrestler and grappler and that’s probably what he’ll try and employ in this fight. In his last bout, Lee got knocked out clean by Leonardo Santos who’s not much of a striker at all, and that makes me nervous.
Escudero only has two TKOs in 24 victories, so that doesn’t scare me too much, but Santos didn’t have much and look what happened. On the other end, Escudero has never been knocked out in 34 career fights, and I just can’t invest too much in Lee assuming this will be the firs time.
I could potentially see Lee fishing for a submission but Escudero is very solid on the ground, and that’s his strength as well.
Most likely, this will be a close fight with a lot of grappling exchanges and it will end in a decision. Lee is definitely viable if you want an under owned fighter who’s likely to win but the upside on this fight as a whole is limited.
Fight Prediction: Lee by Decision