UFC 198: Werdum vs. Miocic Beat Down (Main Card)
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, the Main Card version of UFC 198, which is a pretty stacked card.
Unfortunately, Anderson Silva had to pull out of his fight against Uriah Hall which was slated for the main card, but I decided to post my analysis on what was left over. I know I will get questions about this so if the UFC finds a replacement fighter for Hall, I will include that on the undercard version that comes out later this week.
Looking at roster construction for the huge 75K Main Event that DraftKings is offering, there are a lot of potential finishes, but the biggest question is going to be whether you pay up 11.6k for Cyborg. She’s considered a lock for 100+ points by many, but it will be a challenge fitting her in.
Stay tuned for an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast which will come out later this week, and follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for the latest MMA content.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Fabricio Werdum vs. Stipe Miocic
Fight Odds: Werdum -150, Miocic +130
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Werdum 10.3k, Miocic 9.1k
Weight Class: HW
Wow, this is one of the few HW title fights I’ve been super excited for in recent memory. Maybe it’s just because the HW division isn’t my favorite or because I always felt like Cain Velasquez would destroy everyone in his path, but I like both Fabricio Werdum and Stipe Miocic and I expect this to be a close battle.
I remember watching Miocic’s first fight in the Octagon and thinking he’d fight for the title some day. I also said that about Diego Brandao, Joe Lauzon and basically everyone I thought was cool on TUF so my record isn’t that great.
Miocic is a very good boxer and wrestler and he’s durable. He fights at a high pace and has pretty elite athleticism. He is, however, not GREAT at any one thing and this puts him a tick below the top tier. That doesn’t mean he can’t compete with or beat Werdum.
Werdum is a better striker and he has more tools in his pocket, but his advantage isn’t sizable enough that I’m sold he’d dominate on the feet. Most likely, I think it would be close and back-and-forth. He doesn’t land as often as Miocic but I expect he can land more damaging shots.
Even though I think Miocic holds the wrestling advantage, Werdum is a much more superior submission grappler and I doubt Miocic will want to test him on the ground. Even if he gets the fight down, Werdum is good at getting back to his feet.
From a DFS perspective, I love both guys. Vegas projects this as a close fight and one that’s likely to get into the latter rounds. I actually wouldn’t be surprised if this fight went to decision and each man stole a round or two. Of course this is still HW and a knockout by either fighter wouldn’t shock me in the slightest, but both have shown enough durability in the UFC to make me think it lasts more than a round.
Mostly because I expect this fight to play out on the feet for it’s majority, I favor Werdum slightly, but I think a stack is warranted in cash games. Each is equally viable in tournaments and even in a decision I expect the winner will post a big score.
Fight Prediction: Werdum by Decision
Jacare Souza vs. Vitor Belfort
Fight Odds: Souza -320, Belfort +260
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Souza 10.6k, Belfort 8.8k
Weight Class: 185
This is a pretty awesome match-up between Jacare Souza and Vitor Belfort and it’s relatively easy to break down. Jacare is one of the best submission grapplers in the world, especially in MMA, and he’ll have a huge advantage if the fight gets to the ground.
Belfort is a pretty legit striker with KO power and in theory he’ll have a big advantage while the fight stays standing. If it’s not obvious, I think both fighters make excellent tournament plays because both have the upside to finish in the first round.
In his past 12 fights, dating back to 2008, Belfort has never been to decision and he’s only made it past the first round three times. Granted he won most of those fights, and by TKO, but he’s a finish or be finished type of fighter. The one sidenote here to the fact that Vitor makes for a great GPP play is that I expect him to be very popular.
Jacare is a decent sized favorite in this fight and I expect him to be moderately popular, but not as highly owned as Vitor. Even though he’s an elite grappler, he’s not incapable on the feet and he’s actually shown decent skills and power. Unlike a ground battle, I don’t think Jacare would get manhandled in a striking match.
I haven’t seen the best takedown defense from Vitor in his recent fights and I really don’t think he can last on the ground. I expect that Jacare won’t want to test himself too much on the feet and he should look for a quick takedown, and I expect him to secure a submission or grind out rounds. He’s my pick to win this fight.
Fight Prediction: Jacare by Arm-Triangle, RD 1
Cris Cyborg vs. Leslie Smith
Fight Odds: Cyborg -1700, Smith +1100
Odds to finish: -1300
Salaries: Cyborg 11.6k, Smith 7.8k
Weight Class: 140 (Catchweight)
If you haven’t heard of Cris Cyborg, here’s her basic rundown. She’s always been considered one of, if not the best P4P female fighter in the world. She’s never fought in the UFC before because she fights at 145 and can’t quite cut to 135, and the UFC doesn’t have a 145 lb. division.
She holds a record of 15-1 (loss was first career fight) with 13 TKOs and her opponent has only survived the first round once in her past five fights. She’s now entering the UFC in her home country Brazil at a catchweight of 140 against Leslie Smith.
The odds speak for themselves, she’s a -1700 favorite and the fight is -1300 to end via finish. Cyborg is currently -810 to win inside the distance and -160 to win inside the first round, which is nuts.
The only reason she’s not an AUTO roster is because of her price on DraftKings, which is insanely high at 11.6k. You are really going to have to find value or spend down to roster her in cash games or GPPs, but she’s as close to a lock for 100 points as there is. People are asking me if she’s a “Must-Play” and my answer is simple: if you can afford her and feel comfortable with the rest of your lineup then play her. I don’t ever want to say someone making their UFC debut in a 3-round fight for 11.6k is a “Must-Play.”
It’s going to be a struggle not selecting her in lineups though, her opponent Leslie Smith is the perfect matchup for Cyborg. Smith is a willing, but sub-par striker who is very hittable and durable. Smith was hit by 202 significant strikes in her fight against Sarah Kaufman, and she was hit by 80 sig strikes in 2 rounds against Jessica Eye. I can only image the terrible things Cyborg might do to her, and even in a decision, I could see Cyborg scoring 80+ points with ease. I doubt it gets to decision, though.
With her combined floor and ceiling, Cyborg is obviously my top play on the entire card. To reiterate, she’s not a “Must-Play” because of her price, and there are other fighters on this card with high upside at a much lower cost, but if you fade her, be prepared for her to score 100 points.
Fight Prediction: Cyborg by TKO, RD 1
Shogun Rua vs. Corey Anderson
Fight Odds: Anderson -240, Rua +200
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Anderson 10.2k, Rua 9.2k
Weight Class: 205
This is one of the tougher main card fights to analyze from a DFS perspective in my opinion. After winning The Ultimate Fighter, Corey Anderson has gone 4-1 in the UFC with his lone loss coming by way of 3rd round TKO against Gian Villante.
There are many qualities I like about Anderson’s fighting game. He’s active, he fights at a fast pace and he lands slightly more than five significant strikes per minute. His cardio is good and he’s a pretty good wrestler. Overall, his game is very well-rounded and I think there’s promise for him as a Light Heavyweight prospect.
Shogun Rua has been fighting for a decade and a half, and he’s clearly nearing the end of his MMA career. It doesn’t mean he’s incapable of performing like a Bigfoot Silva type might be, but he’s not the old Shogun from 10 years ago. He’s still a relatively active striker with a good kicking game, he’s a capable wrestler and he has TKO power.
His chin, however, hasn’t looked the greatest lately and I think he’s growing more susceptible to a knockout loss. On the same note, Anderson doesn’t have the best chin either, and he seems to get hit and stunned more than he should.
From a cash game perspective I think both fighters are viable because I can see both landing a good amount of significant strikes. The over on 2.5 rounds is -185 in this fight so Vegas definitely likes it to end via decision. I think Anderson is also the better wrestler and should be able to get Shogun to the ground if he looks for the takedown. I’m not sure much would happen on the ground but I think Anderson is capable is controlling the fight more so than Shogun is.
In tournaments, I think both are equally viable, but I’m eyeing Shogun as a decent value. I don’t expect this fight to end by knockout, but just because of the facts that both have questionable chins and this may turn into a striking battle, I can reasonably see one fighter catching the other. Plus, I expect both fighters to have a moderately low ownership in the large-field GPPs.
Conclusion: I think both fighters are viable in all formats, but I don’t want massive exposure to either. Just a sprinkle.
Fight Prediction: Anderson by Decision