UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping Beat Down (Main Card)
Welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, here I have for you the main card version of UFC 199: Bisping vs. Rockhold. Yes I know it’s technically Rockhold vs. Bisping but since me and you are both obviously rooting for Bisping, I figured he’d look best as the lead.
In all seriousness, I’m really happy he’s getting a title shot even if it’s in a terrible matchup. This should be a great card and there’s plenty of action over on DraftKings this weekend, including a $75k Main Event.
I will do my best to release the undercard version of this Beat Down on Friday, and hopefully will put out an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast. Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA for the most up to date content.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Luke Rockhold vs. Michael Bisping
Fight Odds: Rockhold -900, Bisping +600
Odds to finish: -610
Salaries: Rockhold 11.4k, Bisping 8k
Weight Class: 185
The first of two title fight rematches, Luke Rockhold looks to defend his 185 lb. belt for the first time against Michael Bisping. These two met in 2014 and Rockhold won by submission in the second round.
As a frame of reference, the fight was relatively close in the first round until Rockhold landed a head-butt on Bisping, and the Englishman couldn’t do much after that. Rockhold landed a head kick in the second round that stumbled Bisping, and Rockhold jumped on a guillotine to end the fight.
Now in the rematch, Rockhold is a whopping -900 favorite over Bisping with a finish prop of -440. Even for his 11.4k price, I don’t need to say much else for you to consider Rockhold in all formats. He’s the safest play on the card based on the odds, and in a five round fight, he’s a lock for cash games in my opinion. The biggest question to me here, is what is Rockhold’s upside?
I’ve seen a lot of people speculate that Rockhold will finish Bisping quickly, but I’m not so sure. The biggest reason I think this would be true is because Bisping said himself that he doesn’t have the cardio to go five rounds, and he’s going to go after Rockhold early and try to knock him out. If that’s the case, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Rockhold land a shot early and possibly finish in a similar manner.
But if Bisping is less aggressive than he puts on, I think this fight could last a few rounds, or even end in a decision. I don’t think it’s likely Bisping wins regardless of how long the fight lasts, he doesn’t match up well with Rockhold’s size and length, and he doesn’t hit hard enough or wrestle well enough to hold any fight-changing advantages. Outside of a one-punch or a weird split decision, I think Rockhold should win fairly easily.
If the fight does last that long, however, I’m not positive Rockhold will end up on winning tournament lineups. There are plenty of fighters lower on the card who could finish quickly, so I’m not going to put all my eggs in Rockhold’s basket in tournaments. Bisping has only been finished three times in 35 career fights, once each to TRT Henderson and Vitor, and once to Rockhold.
Rockhold usually fights patiently and outsmarts his opponents as the fight progresses, and Bisping is one tough SOB, which is why I’m hesitant to believe this fight ends quickly. I can see Rockhold winning the stand-up and landing some good kicks, but nothing that puts Bisping away. I don’t think Rockhold will use his wrestling early because he’ll want to land a KO, and even if he does, Bisping isn’t a joke on the ground.
The bottom line here is that Rockhold is a great play in all formats, but I’m hesitant to lock him into a first or second round finish. I think Bisping has merit in cash games because of his striking output, and he’s dirt cheap, but I don’t think he has enough upside to warrant heavy tournament exposure.
Fight Prediction: Rockhold by TKO, RD 3
Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber
Fight Odds: Cruz -550, Faber +425
Odds to finish: +180
Salaries: Cruz 11.3k, Faber 8.1k
Weight Class: 135
The second title fight rematch is the long awaited finale between Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber for the 135 lb. belt. As I’m sure you know by now, Faber submitted Cruz early in his career and still holds the only win over Cruz, who beat Faber for the title in 2011.
Even though this fight is half a decade later, I’m really not sure it plays out any differently. We know who these fighters are at this point in their careers, and we know what each bring to the table.
Cruz is the faster, rangier striker and he’s ultra-elusive. He’ll be able to land more strikes on Faber who is tough to hit himself, but Cruz has little to no punching power and a finish from him is extremely unlikely. Even still, he’s a -550 favorite and very likely to win a decision. He also brings a very good wrestling game to the table, but Faber’s wrestling is essentially equal to his, and I don’t think either will hold a big advantage on the mat.
Faber has the punching power in this fight, and the finishing ability on the ground, so if there is a finish, it’s likely to be him. With that said, Vegas gives Faber a +740 chance to win inside the distance, so you might as well cross that off your list.
Faber is super cheap and I think he’ll be relatively popular, but the upside is so limited in this fight that I think he’s only worth targeting in cash games. He only landed 50 significant strikes in five rounds in their last matchup, which partially has to do with Cruz’ elusiveness and Faber’s striking output. Even if Faber lands, say, 80 significant strikes and wins a decision this time, that’s only 65 points. That’s not a lock to be in the winning tournament lineup, even at the price.
Because this fight is so likely to go all five rounds though, I like Faber in cash, as he’s safe for 20-30 points and allows you to spend up wherever you want. I like Cruz as well, and I don’t mind stacking this fight on the whole for a guaranteed 100 points. I will be avoiding Cruz in tournaments because he’s so unlikely to get a quick finish, and he’s too expensive for that lack of upside.
Fight Prediction: Cruz by Decision
Max Holloway vs. Ricardo Lamas
Fight Odds: Holloway -320, Lamas +260
Odds to finish: +160
Salaries: Holloway 10.8k, Lamas 8.6k
Weight Class: 145
This is a fun and meaningful fight between Max Holloway and Ricardo Lamas and it should push the winner into a No. 1 contender fight in the 145 lb. division. Holloway has been super hot as of late and he’s riding an eight-fight win streak into this bout, which is only topped by Demetrious Johnson and Jon Jones.
Holloway is one of the higher output strikers in the UFC and certainly in this division, and he’s been polishing his technique over the past few years which has built him into a legit threat. He also brings a good grappling game with him, although his biggest strength is still volume striking.
Lamas has only been beaten by the best of the best as of late, and he can still compete with anyone in the division. He’s very well-rounded and opportunistic, but his primary strength is grappling and I think he’s going to look to get the fight to the ground. He can compete on the feet, but I think Holloway is just better and will be more active, so if this fight stays standing Holloway is very likely to win a decision or get a late stoppage if Lamas’ chin doesn’t hold up.
If Lamas pushes the grappling I think he can make this a close bout, but I still have to lean toward Holloway.
From a DFS perspective, even though I think it’s a relatively close fight and Lamas has a path to victory, he has little to no upside and I think should be avoided on DraftKings. Lamas has a +805 prop to win inside the distance, which is just awful even for a +260 underdog. Holloway has a +221 finish prop which isn’t terrible, but the O/U on 2.5 rounds in this fight -235, and Holloway has never been a quick finisher. His saving grace is that his high volume gives him a higher floor, and he has enough upside where a late finish is within reason, but I think there are better plays in his price range.
Fight Prediction: Holloway by Decision
Dan Henderson vs. Hector Lombard
Fight Odds: Lombard -400, Henderson +325
Odds to finish: -600
Salaries: Lombard 11k, Henderson 8.4k
Weight Class: 185
Dan Henderson is in yet another matchup set up perfectly for him to get knocked out in 30 seconds. Yay.
This time Hector Lombard is the opponent. Lombard is coming off his first career stoppage loss in 40 pro fights, which is the only part of this fight that gives me pause, but his loss was to Neil Magny who landed a ton of volume and accurate strikes on Lombard over three rounds to get the finish. All Henderson brings to the tabel at this point is the H-Bomb and I’m not sure that’s enough.
I don’t think Lombard is an amazing striker, but he’s powerful and aggressive in the early part of his fights, and Henderson really can’t take much damage. Henderson’s been knocked out in the first round in three of his past six fights, and he’s also won two of those by TKO, which sums him up pretty well. Lombard is a huge favorite at -400 and has a finish prop of -255, so his chances of securing a quick finish seem more than likely.
He’s the third highest priced fighter on the card, but he carries as much if not more upside than anyone else. For tournaments, I think he’ll be extremely popular, but I also think he’s a great play and I wouldn’t mind starting my lineups with him as opposed to the two title holders. I’m still deciding on whether or not I like him in cash because I don’t think he has the highest floor, but you can’t argue with that upside.
Of course he’s also one of the premier wrestlers in the game so even if he can’t get the quick finish, he has more than enough tools to win a decision or secure a late stoppage. I just don’t trust Henderson any more and his game is so one-dimensional that unless he lands a quick knockout, he has little to no chance of winning.
If you still believe in Henderson, feel free to target him in tournaments but he’s a big dog and has a +435 prop to win inside the distance, and against a guy like Lombard who’s notoriously hard to finish, I don’t think I want much, if any part of Henderson this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Lombard by TKO, RD 1
Dustin Poirier vs. Bobby Green
Fight Odds: Poirier -220, Green +180
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Poirier 10.6k, Green 8.8k
Weight Class: 155
Starting off the main card we get a fun action fight in Dustin Poirier vs. Bobby Green but I’m not sure how much value it has from a fantasy perspective.
Poirier has really grown and progressed as a fighter since hitting the 155 lb. division and he looked great in his last fight against Joe Duffy. He showed off more wrestling than we’re used to but he’s definitely become a more intelligent and strategic fighter, which is good for him. The step up in weight has also shown vast improvements on his chin, and although he’s still hittable, I’m not as much worried about him getting flash KOd.
Green hasn’t fought since 2014 but he was on a nice streak prior to that where he won eight in a row before losing to Edson Barboza. The thing about Green….he’s good, but he talks way too much. He literally talks at his opponents in complete sentences during the fight and he’ll comment nearly every time they throw punches. He’ll say things like “No, you didn’t hit me, that hit me in the shoulder,” or he’ll yell “yes sir” when his coaches give him instructions. I really think it takes away from his fighting because he could spend all that time striking, instead of talking.
With that said, what I expect to happen is Poirier out-striking Green while Greens sits there and talks to him for 15 minutes. Poirier is a good striker with knockout power and he’s capable of finishing on the feet, but Green is pretty tough and not easy to hit or rock. Green is a quick striker but again, I’m honestly worried about him talking more than throwing, and Vegas gave him a finish prop of +580 which suggests their thoughts.
Poirier has a finish prop of +227, which kind of goes in line with the thinking that this fight will last a few rounds. I like Poirier, I always like Poirier, but I don’t love him in this fight. I think he’s likely to win and he could put up a decent number of significant strikes, but I don’t love his chances to finish quickly so I won’t have a ton of exposure to him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Poirier by Decision