UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping (Undercard)
It was a tough journey with the UFC 199 salaries coming out Wednesday, but I’ve got a full undercard breakdown for you!
One thing I noticed in my research is that there are a lot of close fights to target in the mid-range, and there are several interesting fighters who should go overlooked. But there’s also not a ton of upside on paper, and I think the majority of people will focus on a stars and scrubs type lineup. Finding the finishes in the mid-range will be key this week.
Of course I still like the big guns in Rockhold, Cruz and Lombard this week, but if you’re looking to find a lower owned fighter and want to build lineups on a different plane than most, I think the mid-range is the way to go.
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Onto the fights!
UNDERCARD
Brian Ortega vs. Clay Guida
Fight Odds: Ortega -275, Guida +235
Odds to finish: -135
Salaries: Ortega 10.9k, Guida 8.5k
Weight Class: 145
This is a tricky fight to call in my opinion, I’ve seen a lot of people hyping up Brian Ortega to win by submission, and that’s fine, I think it’s a reasonable pick, but I’m in no way confident of that.
Ortega is a great submission grappler, if he wins, it’s likely to be by submission, but his overall game isn’t great. He only landed 29 significant strikes into the third round against Diego Brandao in his most recent fight, and I definitely think Guida can out pace him while the fight stays standing. He also doesn’t possess strong enough wrestling to get most fighters down, and I think it’s likely that he won’t have the tools to land takedowns on Guida.
With that said, I think it’s very likely Guida shoots for and gets takedowns on Ortega, so the key here is will he or won’t he get submitted. It’s certainly possible, Guida has been submitted several times in his UFC career and Ortega is skilled enough to get the stoppage. If Ortega doesn’t get that sub, I have to lean toward Guida overall. He’s still much more experienced than Ortega and he knows how to win rounds.
In tournaments, I think Ortega makes for a decent play even though I don’t love paying the price on him. He’s still -120 to win inside the distance and he should be owned less than Lombard and the champs above him. Even though I think Guida can win, he has no finishing upside and I really don’t see much point in targeting him at all.
Fight Prediction: Guida by Decision
Beneil Dariush vs. James Vick
Fight Odds: Dariush -200, Vick +170
Odds to finish: +135
Salaries: Dariush 10k, Vick 9.4k
Weight Class: 155
After a stunning submission loss against Michael Chiesa, Beneil Dariush is thrown right back into the fire against prospect James Vick who has knocked off several prospects of his own in the UFC.
I’m relatively neutral on this fight from a fantasy perspective, I can see potential high scoring outcomes but I don’t think they’re super likely. I definitely think Dariush is the superior fighter, on the ground for sure and probably on the feet. Vick is more unorthodox and he can cause problems, but he’s not as well rounded as Dariush and I think this is where his win streak ends.
In regards to a finish, you can never count out Dariush by sub, but besides that, I don’t see a finish. The over on 2.5 rounds is -200 and Vick has a finish prop of +695, so Vegas doesn’t like the upside either. Vick does have the possibility of landing 100 sig strikes and winning a decision which is really the only way he finds himself on a winning lineup, but I don’t think that’s a likely scenario, so I’ll probably be fading him this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Dariush by Decision
Jessica Penne vs. Jessica Andrade
Fight Odds: Penne -145, Andrade +125
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Penne 10.2k, Andrade 9.2k
Weight Class: 115
If I’m playing either of these fighters, it’s a small amount of Jessica Penne in tournaments. Jessica Andrade is a hardcore grinder and has no upside in almost any fight, and she’s dropping down from 135 to 115 for this fight. It’s possible she makes the cut well and is the bigger and stronger fighter and can grind down Penne for three rounds, but that has no value from a fantasy perspective.
Penne is coming off her brutal loss to Joanna Jedrzejczyk but Andrade doesn’t have the same striking ability, so I’m not worried about a TKO finish. Penne is still a BJJ specialist and her prop to finish is high enough where she’s in contention for a submission, but I’m not in love with the play.
Most likely, this fight will end in a decision and regardless of who the winner is, she won’t be on the winning lineup. For the small chance of a Penne submission, she’s worth a look in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Penne by Decision
Cole Miller vs. Alex Caceres
Fight Odds: Miller -185, Caceres +160
Odds to finish: +110
Salaries: Miller 10.4k, Caceres 9k
Weight Class: 145
If I remember correctly, this fight started as BJ Penn vs. Dennis Siver, and it turned into BJ Penn vs. Cole Miller, which turned into Miller vs. Alex Caceres. Fine with me.
I think it’s a sneaky fight in tournaments, moreso on the side of Cole Miller. Caceres is a fun fighter to watch but he still has holes in his game, most notably in his striking defense. Miller is a good boxer and I think he can hit Caceres, but I don’t see him stopping the fight there.
However, Miller is an elite submission grappler and he should definitely have the advantage if the fight gets to the ground. Even though Caceres has solid grappling, I can definitely see Miller taking the back and locking in a RNC. From a cash game perspective, I’m not in love with either guy because I still think it’s a close fight and the finishing upside isn’t off the charts.
I don’t think Miller will be highly owned in tournaments though, and because I think a submission is possible, I’ll have some exposure to him.
Fight Prediction: Miller by RNC, RD 2
Sean Strickland vs. Tom Breese
Fight Odds: Breese -145, Strickland +125
Odds to finish: +145
Salaries: Breese 10.3k, Strickland 9.1k
Weight Class: 170
Everyone was on Tom Breese in his last fight against Keita Nakamura with a big price tag, and he let everyone down, barely escaping with a decision win. It will be interesting to see how many people go back to the well in this fight against Sean Strickland, but I don’t think I’ll be one of them.
Sure, Breese has the upside to finish, but Strickland is a tough dude and has never been finished in 18 career fights. Strickland should also have the wrestling advantage which bit Breese against Nakamura, and if he chooses to fight properly, I think Strickland can get the fight down and walk away with a win.
If the fight stays standing, I’ll give Breese the edge because I think he’s more dangerous, but with a finish prop of +258, I still don’t love him. I wouldn’t be super high on Strickland either, but he does have good value compared to his price. He’s only a +125 dog and priced at 9.1k, so if you need to spend down, I don’t hate targeting Strickland.
Fight Prediction: Strickland by Decision
Jonathan Wilson vs. Luiz Henrique da Silva
Fight Odds: Wilson -230, Silva +190
Odds to finish: -131
Salaries: Wilson 10.7k, Silva 8.7k
Weight Class: 205
Well, this fight should be…interesting. Both Jonathan Wilson and Luiz Henrique da Silva are as green as they come, with record of 7-0 and 10-0 respectively. Between them, they share 16 TKO victories. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to speculate this fight will end via TKO.
Wilson has had one fight in the UFC and he won in 50 seconds against Chris Dempsey. I watched what little footage of Silva I could find on the internet and he didn’t impress me much. In his last fight against Ildemar Alcantara in the regional circuit, he was rocked multiple times and taken down several times in the first two rounds before he came from behind to get the stoppage victory.
My gut says Wilson is the better fighter at this stage and the more likely to get a knockout, so I’ll be pretty high on him this weekend. But I also think Silva is worth a look in tournaments, strictly for the upside at his price.
I really don’t think it’s possible to have a strong lean one way or the other so I’m trusting in my gut and the odds here. Target this one in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Wilson by TKO, RD 1
Kevin Casey vs. Elvis Mutapcic
Fight Odds: Mutapcic -155, Casey +135
Odds to finish: -170
Salaries: Casey 9.8k, Mutapcic 9.6k
Weight Class: 185
I put Elvis Mutapcic in my Daily Fantasy Takedown video this week, and I tweeted out that I threw up in my mouth a little bit when I had to do that. It’s true. I’m super annoyed I have to tout Mutapcic again after his ugly performance against Francimar Barroso in his UFC debut, but there are things that make this a good matchup for him.
Mutapcic took that UFC debut on short notice at 205, but he’s now in his proper division of 185 and he should definitely have the striking advantage against Kevin Casey, who is primarily a submission grappler. The biggest weakness in Mutapcic’ game is his takedown defense and I think Casey can expose that early, but I doubt he’ll be able to hold Mutapcic down for three rounds, especially with his weak cardio.
If Mutapcic is to lose, I think it’s because Casey controls him on the ground or gets an early submission, but I’m not going to bet on that and I’m not paying that price for Casey . If Mutapcic wins, I think it’s because he strikes his way to a decision and fends off the takedowns, or possibly stops Casey late by TKO.
The best thing about Mutapcic is his price of 9.6k, and he’s currently a -155 favorite with good upside. I definitely think he’s worth targeting this week for the price value alone and I think he’s even viable in cash games for that reason. You have to spend down somewhere and I think Mutapcic is one of the better options.
Fight Prediction: Mutapcic by Decision
Polo Reyes vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Fight Odds: Kim -110, Reyes -110
Odds to finish: -190
Salaries: Reyes 10.1k, Kim 9.3k
Weight Class: 155
I think this fight between Polo Reyes and Dong Hyun Kim is one of the better fights to target in tournaments. For one, Kim (This is not the good DHK, this is the “Maestro” who was slam TKOd in his only UFC fight) is a -110 favorite but the fight is basically even money right now, so he already has some pricing value.
If his odds go up to -150 or something within the next two days, that just adds to his value.
But I don’t think these fighters wil be heavily targeted for their skills, and they might go overlooked in a fight that’s likely to finish according to Vegas. Both fighters have a finish prop of less than +200 which is pretty good, and both have holes in their game that make me think a finish is a realistic possibility for both.
I wish Kim was the better striker here because I’d like him even more, but he’s going to have the grappling advantage most likely in this fight. Reyes was taken down pretty easily in his last UFC fight and I think Kim is capable of that. Reyes also won that fight by TKO, and Kim seemed hittable enough where another knockout isn’t out of the question.
I think Reyes has slightly more upside because of that, but he has little to no value according to the odds. All these things signal strong GPP fight to me, and I plan to have a fair amount of exposure to both.
Fight Prediction: Kim by Decision