UFC 200: Cormier vs. Jones Beat Down
Welcome to UFC 200 Fight Week! I’m proud to be able to deliver not only the usual UFC Beat Down, but a special GrindersLive as well.
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DraftKings is blowing up UFC 200 week, which includes a 100K Haymaker, 50K Axe Kick and three (3) separate qualifiers to Rumble in Gotham. My word of advice before I begin the article is to heavily consider levels of ownership in tournaments before you set your lineups. The public will be playing this event more than any other, so the Jon Jones/Jose Aldo/Meisha Tate/Brock Lesnar’s of the world should bring a considerably high ownership.
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On to the fights!
MAIN CARD
Daniel Cormier vs. Jon Jones
Fight Odds: Jones -320, Cormier +260
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Jones 10.9k, Cormier 9.5k
Weight Class: 205
The rematch is finally here, but this time Daniel Cormier gets to sit in the red corner against Jon Jones. There’s been so much noise surrounding these two during the past couple years that it’s hard to not to have a bias, but stick with me as I try an analyze it from clean perspective.
In their first fight, Jones was the clear victor, and he was dominant in nearly every aspect of MMA. Since that time, he’s had a lot of ups and downs in his personal life that forced him away from training properly. He returned to the Octagon early this year against OSP and looked relatively human. He was still dominant in that matchup, but Saint Preux offered him nothing to defend and didn’t show the fight that many top light-heavyweights could.
If Jones fought Daniel Cormier on that night….I don’t know….he might have lost.
With that said, he was not fighting Cormier, so he probably was not as motivated and as he admitted, Jones was rusty. Does that mean he won’t come out in this fight with any of the same rust? I’m not so sure.
I think it’s likely that Jones fights somewhere in-between the level he was in Jones/Cormier 1 and the level he was against Saint Preux. On Cormier’s side, after that loss to Jones, he’s had two great performances and will likely show up as good, if not better, than he was in the first fight.
Cormier’s cardio failed him against Jones the first time, which I believe was in part because of the emotions surrounding the fight. Those emotions will still be here, but I don’t expect it to play as big of an issue as it did previously. The bottom line from a fight-analysis perspective is that until Jones loses, at this point I can’t pick against him to. I don’t think it’s likely that he loses more than 50% of the time.
But I do think Cormier is a real live dog and I would not be surprised to see him win, or at least put up a very closely contested battle.
From an odds standpoint, I think both Cormier and Jones are top-tier plays in cash games, but I also think Jones makes for an interesting fade in tournaments. I really like Jones’ significant striking rate, and if the fight lasts five rounds, I expect him to land around 100 sig strikes, which means his reasonable output with a win is 75-85.
Cormier doesn’t land strikes at as high of a rate, but that’s because he often spends time on the ground in top position. I don’t see him being dominant in the wrestling department, and I expect this fight to stay standing for its majority, which tells me Cormier should land a similar number of strikes (or maybe slightly fewer) in five rounds. For his price of $8.5k, I’ll definitely take that in tournaments.
Jones is priced at $10.9k, which is the fourth-highest on the slate. If he scores 80 points, I’m not so sure that ends up on a winning lineup with potential finishers like Miller/Tate/Hunt below him and Velasquez/Northcutt above him. We can assume that he’ll be highly owned as well, which also makes me lean toward playing the fade.
Vegas has this fight at +115 to end in a finish, and Jones’ individual finish prop is +162. While it’s still “Jon Jones” and we know he has the upside, the combination of his price, upside, and ownership present a good opportunity for a tournament fade.
Fight Prediction: Jones by Decision
Brock Lesnar vs. Mark Hunt
Fight Odds: Hunt -160, Lesnar +140
Odds to finish: -750
Salaries: Hunt 10.4k, Lesnar 9k
Weight Class: HW
Yes, this is real life: Brock Lesnar is returning to the UFC after a five-year hiatus to take on veteran Mark Hunt. Like most heavyweight fights, the outcome of this bout has an extremely high ceiling and an extremely low floor. Vegas has the fight tagged with a -750 line to end inside the distance and the O/U on 1.5 rounds is -230.
From a matchup perspective, it’s hard not to significantly favor Hunt. He’s looked as good as ever in his past two fights, knocking out Frank Mir and Bigfoot Silva inside the first round. Clearly the punching power is still there for the 42-year-old Hunt who hits as hard as anyone in the UFC. Since December, 2011 when Lesnar stopped fighting, Hunt has made nine appearances in the UFC, which is extremely valuable, and that doesn’t count the hours and hours of training he accrued during that duration. What has Lesnar been doing? And with whom?
Obviously if these two stay standing, you have to favor Hunt to land a heavy punch and hurt Lesnar enough to jump on him and score a TKO. Lesnar’s body was extremely fragile during his first stint in the UFC that included back-to-back TKO losses to Velasquez and Overeem, and although he’ll say he’s “better than ever,” I don’t know how you can trust that. Lesnar is only 5-3 in his MMA career (FYI).
Lesnar is going to have to rush Hunt and use his size and wrestling to get the fight to the ground, which is possible in theory. But even if he gets Hunt down, how long can he keep him there? On the flip side, if Lesnar does get the fight to the ground, he’ll have a very real opportunity to finish Hunt with ground-and-pound, or potentially a submission.
It’s hard to gauge exactly what level of wrestling Lesnar will come into this fight with, but he’s taken down pretty much everyone he wanted during his first stint in the UFC, including Cain Velasquez, so I’m considering this as a very real possibility.
You also have to factor in the reality that Lesnar is a huge name and he’s going to be very popular regardless of his matchup, most likely too popular for his potential outcome. While I do think Lesnar could pull off the upset off a long layoff, if he’s 25-30% owned, that scares me a bit. I’ll have much higher exposure to Hunt who has a finish prop of -159 and who has been in the Octagon with Dos Santos, Velasquez, Miocic, Werdum and others all while Brock was sitting on the sidelines.
I expect a relatively high ownership for Hunt too, but his upside is too high to overlook in my opinion. I’m sure people will target both sides in cash as well, but I’d advise staying away because of the low floor on both fighters.
Fight Prediction: Hunt by TKO, RD 1
Meisha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes
Fight Odds: Tate -270, Nunes +230
Odds to finish: -280
Salaries: Tate 10.7, Nunes 8.7k
Weight Class: 135
I honestly think the women’s 135 lb. division will be a revolving door at the top, at least for the foreseeable future. Meisha Tate is a great fighter, but there are many who can and will compete with her, and I’m never going to be overconfident in her chances to defend the belt.
Her first title defense will come against Amanda Nunes, best described as the fighter who wins inside the first round or loses. Of course, she broke that trend in her last fight with a decision victory over Valentina Shevchenko, but this is a completely different matchup with Tate.
Tate’s always been a grinder who can take punishment and persevere through it, and if you watch her fight against Holly Holm, she shows exactly that. I think a reasonable comp for this fight is Nunes’ match against Cat Zingano (who is also fighting on this card and has coincidentally beaten both Tate and Nunes..lol.) where Nunes came out strong and looked close to finishing Zingano in the first round, only to gas herself out and get dominated and finished in the third round.
Nunes has never fought for five rounds and her cardio concerns me. Against Shevchekno she was able to sit back and be patient, but Tate will not let her do that. I can almost guarantee that part of Tate’s strategy will be to force her into a brawl early and let her gas out. Like I said, Tate knows she can take the punishment and she still has the cardio to go five rounds.
On DraftKings, the biggest drawbacks to rostering Tate are her price and striking output. She’s expensive at $10.7k, and she doesn’t land strikes at a high enough rate to make her a slam dunk, even in a decision. But with five rounds to work with and a finish prop of -114, Tate is squarely in play for cash games and tournaments.
Nunes is also in play because of her upside and price. It’s hard for me to imagine Nunes winning the fourth and fifth rounds if the fight lasts that long, so I think she finishes early or loses. For $8.7k, especially in a tournament, I’m willing to take some chances on her.
I have a feeling this fight will be lower owned than both Jones/Cormier and Aldo/Edgar but I think that’s a mistake. This fight has higher upside than both according to Vegas, and with the O/U on 1.5 rounds set at -235, I think you should have a decent amount of exposure all-around.
Fight Prediction: Tate by RNC, RD 3
Jose Aldo vs. Frankie Edgar
Fight Odds: Edgar -120, Aldo +100
Odds to finish: -115
Salaries: Edgar 9.9k, Aldo 9.5k
Weight Class: 145
This is one of the more perplexing fights on the card from a matchup and fantasy perspective.
Jose Aldo was one of the kings of the UFC not so long ago and he’s only lost once since 2005, but it really feels like he’s on the decline. Maybe it’s because we haven’t seen him dominate in the Octagon in quite some time; Aldo has only been inside the Octagon for 13 seconds since October 2014, and that’s concerning to me.
In his last fight against Conor McGregor, he was mentally broken before the fight started; as much as he wanted to deny it, you can tell by the look on his face. McGregor got in his head like he always does, but Aldo so vehemently denied and still denies McGregor any respect, and that built up so much pressure that he couldn’t handle. That’s my opinion anyways.
On the flip side, since Frankie Edgar dropped to 145 and lost to Aldo, he’s looked pretty dominant with five straight victories and three finishes. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but I don’t have a good gut feeling about Aldo’s return.
Even more perplexing is how to attack these fighters on DraftKings, as they’re reasonably priced accordingly to their odds. In their last fight, Aldo scored 76 significant strikes to Edgar’s 60, which is extremely low for a five-round fight. Edgar in general is tough to hit (even though he always gets hurt) and Aldo isn’t the highest volume striker, and I think Edgar’s movement will make it tough for Aldo to land much more.
Edgar also strikes at a relatively low volume himself; I can picture both fighters landing in the 60-80 range once again and that scares me. Let’s say the winner of this fight lands 100 significant strikes and takes a decision; that’s 75 points, which may or may not be enough to be in a GPP lineup. 100 sig. strikes is a lot though, and I think it’s very likely that neither lands that many, so are these guys worth targeting at all? If Edgar wins and scores 65 points, is that worth it?
I’m struggling to determine the answers to the above questions, but my instincts say that you shouldn’t have too much exposure to this fight. It’s not likely to end in a finish and I don’t think it’s likely to end up winning tournament lineups, bottom line. I wouldn’t tie you down and make you delete your lineups if you decided to roster someone from this fight, though.
In cash games, I think rostering either guy is acceptable only because each has a high floor of 30 points, but this fight has so many question marks that it’s equally viable to fade it overall.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Aldo regain his old form, but I just have this bad feeling that Aldo is going to come out slow and hesitant, and he won’t be able to keep up with the pace of Edgar for five rounds. I think Edgar comes out strong unlike the last fight, wins at least three of the five rounds, and takes a decision.
Fight Prediction: Edgar by Decision
Cain Velasquez vs. Travis Browne
Fight Odds: Velasquez -280, Browne +240
Odds to finish: -280
Salaries: Velasquez 11.2k, Browne 8.2k
Weight Class: HW
Cain Velasquez has had a dominant career in the UFC that includes an 11-2 record and four title victories. He had a slip-up against Junior Dos Santos in 2011, but he followed that up with four consecutive performances that put him right back in the P4P mix.
I don’t think many people were expecting Velasquez to lose to Fabricio Werdum, but as we know, it’s more than difficult to defend the title in the heavyweight division and Velasquez succumbed to 96 significant strikes that eventually put him into a chokehold he couldn’t get out of. That fight took place in June 2015, and Velasquez has struggled to find his way back to the Octagon as his body has fallen short on multiple occasions.
Now he looks healthy enough to return and claw his way back into the title picture, and that run starts against Travis Browne. My biggest concern for Velasquez is his health; if he’s truly not injured and somewhat similar to the fighter he used to be, I don’t think he’ll have much trouble with Browne, but if his bevy of injuries has done more damage than we know, this fight is up for grabs.
Even in the loss to Werdum where his cardio failed, Velasquez looked good. He landed 88 significant strikes and four takedowns in less than three rounds, and he pushed the pace on Werdum early. Sure he got tagged, but he fell more to an accumulation of strikes than a one-punch stunner. Browne hits very hard, but I don’t see him walking into this fight and landing a quick knockout.
More than likely, Velasquez will push the pace, get on the inside and dirty box with Browne until he can get the fight to the ground. Browne has not impressed me in his past couple performances, and since he stopped training with the Jackson camp he has not looked like an elite fighter. I know this is a heavyweight fight and anyone truly has a chance to win, but it’s very hard for me to picture Browne having success outside of one-shot knockout.
I expect both fighters to be popular but I think Browne will be higher owned due to his price of 8.2k, and due to the fact that people remember Velasquez’ last fight ending in a submission loss. I will say the price on Browne is pretty tasty, he’s the second cheapest fighter on the slate and has the upside for a first-round knockout. If you want to dive down that deep, he’s worth a shot in tournaments based on his Vegas metrics.
Velasquez is the second most expensive fighter, but I think he’s a strong play. Not only does he have first-round finishing upside, but it’s backed with a -121 finish prop, and he’s increased his significant striking rate to 6.22 per minute, which is extremely high. It wouldn’t completely shock me to see this fight end in decision as both fighters are tough, and even if Velasquez landed a ton of strikes, he probably wouldn’t be on the winning lineup. But he has 120-point upside, and that’s enough for me to target him in tournaments.
Fight Prediction: Velasquez by TKO, RD 2
UNDERCARD
Cat Zingano vs. Julianna Pena
Fight Odds: Zingano -170, Pena +150
Odds to finish: +105
Salaries: Zingano 10.5k, Pena 8.9k
Weight Class: 135
Julianna Pena is undoubtedly one of the better fighters in the women’s 135 lb. division, but I’m not ready to say she’s better than Cat Zingano. I know MMA math doesn’t always equate to much, but Zingano has TKO’d both Meisha Tate and Amanda Nunes, and her only career loss is to Ronda Rousey. Pena’s best win was a closely contested decision with Jessica Eye and before that..Milana Dudieva?
What Pena brings to the table is ultra-aggression, but she’s still at the stage where it often does as much harm as it does good. She’s often off-balanced and inaccurate on her feet, and that leads to poor defense as well. Her wrestling and grappling skills are strong, but Zingano’s are better.
And on top of that, Zingano just feels like a more experienced fighter and I expect her to hold a lot of the advantages against Pena, who is still raw in her game. Vegas likes this fight to end by decision with an O/U on 2.5 rounds at -150. I can sortof kindof picture a scenario where this fight ends quickly, but it’s not likely enough to invest in, in my opinion.
More likely that not, I expect a lot of grappling exchanges initiated by both fighters, and that should take away from both the floor and upside on this fight. There are simply too many other fights I like more on this card.
Fight Prediction: Zingano by Decision
Johnny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Fight Odds: Hendricks -165, Gastelum +145
Odds to finish: +145
Salaries: Hendricks 10.1k, Gastelum 9.3k
Weight Class: 170
Of all the fights on this card, Johnny Hendricks vs. Kelvin Gastelum is at or near the bottom of my list in terms of fantasy perspectives. From an odds standpoint, the O/U on 2.5 rounds is -200, and Hendricks and Gastelum have respective props +245 and +547 to win inside the distance.
Both fighters are wrestling based, and even if that neutralizes itself somewhat in the Octagon, I don’t see this turning into a point-striking affair. The overall upside is very limited for these reasons. Of course we’ve seen Hendricks knock dudes out in the UFC and you can’t completely ignore that punching power, but he hasn’t been anywhere near as effective with it in recent fights, and Gastelum has shown a tough chin with zero TKO losses in 13 professional fights.
Hendricks is coming off a TKO loss to Stephen Thompson, but we don’t have to worry about the bevy of strikes from Gastelum. I think Hendricks will look to close the distance and get Gastelum against the cage and onto the mat like he always does. Even though Gastelum has shown good offensive wrestling ability, his defense has been exposed, and if Magny can take him down six times over the course of a fight, I expect to see Hendricks get the fight to the floor.
If you have a strong lean either way, both fighters are reasonably priced. Maybe Gastelum could squeak his way to a decision and end up on the winning roster, and maybe Hendricks lands that power shot out of nowhere, but there are so many high-upside fights that I’m not willing to overexpose myself to this one.
Fight Prediction: Hendricks by Decision
TJ Dillashaw vs. Raphael Assuncao
Fight Odds: Dillashaw -390, Assuncao +320
Odds to finish: +145
Salaries: Dillashaw 11.1k, Assuncao 8.3k
Weight Class: 135
In his first fight back from losing the title to Dominick Cruz, TJ Dillashaw gets a rematch against one of his only three career losses in Raphael Assuncao.
I re-watched their previous fight from 2013 in which Dillashaw lost by split decision, and I actually came away more impressed with Dillashaw. He out-struck Assuncao and outwrestled him, and he was extremely close to winning by RNC in the first round. And he’s only gotten better, much better. Dillashaw’s striking is on a completely new level since that fight and I really don’t see Assuncao being able to top him.
But are we even going to get a prime Assuncao, the guy who has won seven straight fights in the UFC? Assuncao hasn’t fought since Oct. 2014 which is a red flag, and even if he comes back as good or better than he was, TJ’s improvements are more than enough to give him a significant edge in this fight.
From a DraftKings perspective, TJ is the third highest-priced fighter and he’s surrounded by killers in Jon Jones, Cain Velasquez, and Sage Northcutt. Based on odds alone he’s the heaviest favorite on the card at -390, so there’s some price value on him.
If we’re talking tournaments, I don’t think Dillashaw is worth having much exposure to. He’s locked in at +190 to finish the fight with the O/U on 2.5 rounds at -190, which tells me his upside is lower than it should be for the price. Assuncao is still a tough guy and notoriously hard to finish.
On the flip side, I can’t picture Assuncao winning by anything other than decision, and even though he’s cheap, I don’t think he’s worth playing. I will say that TJ makes for a very solid cash play because he strikes at such a high volume and should be able to earn the win. I trust him more than Northcutt and Velasquez in that range for cash games for that safety.
Fight Prediction: Dillashaw by Decision
Sage Northcutt vs. Enrique Marin
Fight Odds: Northcutt -325, Marin +265
Odds to finish: -215
Salaries: Northcutt 11.3k, Marin 8.1k
Weight Class: 155
The hype train that followed Sage Northcutt after his first two wins in the UFC was insane, but that train was quickly derailed with a questionable submission loss to Bryan Barberena.
This isn’t an excuse for his loss, but Northcutt was extremely sick entering the fight, and I do think that contributed in part to him tapping from an abnormal position. He was also controlled on his back by Barberena for a few minutes, and that’s part of his game that’s still a weakness. For the first six minutes of that fight, however, I thought Northcutt looked excellent.
He landed explosive punches and tossed Barberena around, and he clearly controlled that first round. While he’s still raw technically, especially on the ground, his athleticism and speed are world-class, and it’s going to give him hope in nearly every fight he enters. This time around, Northcutt gets a lower-level opponent in Enrique Marin who lost his only UFC fight by split decision off TUF Latin America.
The bright side to Marin is that he’s a decent striker and he’s spent a good deal of time at Kings MMA where he will only continue to grow. He’s a good submission grappler as well, but his wrestling isn’t good enough to get many fighters down, certainly not Northcutt in my opinion. I can picture Marin landing some strikes throughout the fight, and I can picture him sweeping Northcutt and maybe controlling him from top position for a bit, but even that is a stretch.
Northcutt manages distance extremely well and he almost certainly will be the one landing the harder shots, and if this fight stays standing, I have to give Northcutt the edge. Interestingly enough, I think the bigger talent gap lies in the wrestling. Northcutt is such a higher quality athlete, I believe he’ll be able to take down Marin at will, and it will be interesting to see if he opts for that route or if he plays it safer on the feet.
I’m not sold on the exact outcome of this fight, but I expect Northcutt to control Marin and possibly finish him early. I could also see this fight lasting the distance if Marin has improved and is shows defensive toughness.
Here’s the tricky part: none of this might matter from a DraftKings perspective, because Northcutt is the highest priced fighter at 11.3k. It’s not to say he couldn’t “pay off the price” with a first-round finish, and like I said, I think that’s a potential outcome. But that price is so high that even if he scores 100 points, he’s not guaranteed to be on winning tournament lineups, and that’s what scares me.
My gut says that I won’t end up with much exposure to Northcutt for that reason, but I think if you have the money left over and want to fit him in, that’s perfectly fine. Don’t force him in, though.
In cash games, I don’t trust him enough over guys like Dillashaw and Jones, and I’d rather save my money there. The only realistic outcome I can see for Marin ending up on a winning GPP lineup is if he somehow secures a submission off his back, but I just don’t think he’s athletic enough to get the job done.
Fight Prediction: Northcutt by RNC, RD 1
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Lauzon
Fight Odds: Sanchez -110, Lauzon -110
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Sanchez 9.7k, Lauzon 9.7k
Weight Class: 155
This may very well be one of the higher-paced action-fights on the card, but be cautious from a DFS perspective.
Diego Sanchez has fought 34 times in his MMA career and he’s been finished once. That alone suggests his opponent Joe Lauzon has limited upside, even though Lauzon is a high-level submission artists and one of the better finishers in the UFC. Even though Lauzon has been finished himself a few times here and there, Sanchez isn’t likely to threaten J-Lau on that level.
Win or lose, Sanchez hasn’t been in a fight that finished since 2008; that includes a stretch of 13 fights. Granted, he did get “finished” by BJ Penn but that was due to a doctor stoppage so it’s hard for me to count. Sanchez is just so friggen tough, he fights at his best when he’s hurt and often comes on stronger. But if he’s not going to get finished and he doesn’t have the punching power or submission skills to catch Lauzon, this fight seems tailor-made to end in a decision.
Again, fun fight, but low upside, and it’s honestly close enough that I don’t feel comfortable rostering either in cash.
As of now, this fight is dead even in the odds at -110 and both are priced at 9.7k. If the odds move in one direction or the other, there will be a bit of price value on the favorite, but I don’t expect it to move enough to warrant significant exposure for either. If I had to take one, it would be Lauzon simply because I know he can finish and his wins inside distance prop reflects that at +252 compared to the +545 of Sanchez.
Fight Prediction: Lauzon by Decision
Gegard Mousasi vs. Thiago Santos
Fight Odds: Mousasi -295, Santos +235
Odds to finish: O/U 2.5 Rounds -130
Salaries: Mousasi 10.3k, Santos 8.4k
Weight Class: 185
Gegard Mousasi was originally supposed to fighter Derek Brunson at UFC 200, but Brunson got injured and was quickly replaced by Thiago Santos.
DraftKings had already priced Mousasi at 10.3k, which signified a -150 favorite or so, but now Mousasi is favored at -295, which means he’s the third-highest favorite on the card. He’s still priced at 10.3k and is the ninth-most-expensive fighter, so there’s plenty of odds value on him. Santos was priced in correctly at 8.4k.
Now, even before Santos was priced, I’d heard a lot of rumblings on how great of a play Santos is, but I don’t understand why. I can make some educated guesses as to why people like him though; he’s a finisher, he’s knocked out three of his past four opponents, and he’s exciting. Mousasi was TKO’d by Uriah Hall two fights ago, so naturally people can “picture” Santos landing a quick knockout.
First of all, Santos knocked out Andy Enz, Steve Bosse and Nate Marquardt, and although all three are actual humans who were trying to not get knocked out, you can’t put them on the same level as Mousasi. In 44 professional fights, Mousasi has only been knocked out once, to Hall. In fact, that was the only real time he was rocked, and it wasn’t exactly a true “knockout,” so I’m not at all concerned about his chin. Furthermore, Mousasi was dominating that fight until Hall landed a spinning kick followed by a flying knee, but it very well could have ended in the first round with a submission victory for Mousasi.
Next, you have to take a closer look at Santos’ striking, and it’s truly hard to label him a great striker. He’s a very powerful kicker but he’s not a good boxer, and I think Mousasi will dominate the in-fighting. Santos is lengthy and will throw those kicks, but Mousasi is so defensively technical on the inside and outside that he should limit Santos’ striking offense and be able to fire off offense of his own.
Mousasi is also a much more technical grappler than Santos, who was taken down by Uriah Hall himself and Elias Theodorou, and was submitted earlier in his career. I definitely think Mousasi can get the fight to the ground and he may very well dominant those ground exchanges.
From a DraftKings perspective, I like Mousasi based on the price, but I’m not in love with him simply because he doesn’t have the highest output or ceiling. I think he can finish and he’ll land a moderate amount of strikes, which makes him a very good cash value play, but I’m not suggesting to go all-in on him in all formats. As far as Santos is concerned, the hype I’ve heard around him since the replacement fight was announced has really turned me off. If he’s going to be popular, which I’m expecting, I don’t really want a big piece of him, especially because I don’t love his matchup or upside.
You can certainly roster him if you really want to for the cheap price, but I’ll probably look elsewhere.
Fight Prediction: Mousasi by Decision
Jim Miller vs. Takanori Gomi
Fight Odds: Miller -240, Gomi +200
Odds to finish: -195
Salaries: Miller 10.8k, Gomi 8.6k
Weight Class: 155
I think this fight between Jim Miller and Takanori Gomi is a sneaky one to target in tournaments, and I’m hoping it goes overlooked. Neither fighter jumps off the page as an elite talent anymore, and both are clearly toward the end of their long careers, but that doesn’t mean there’s no upside from a fantasy perspective.
In his current two-fight stint in the UFC, Gomi has been finished both times in the first round, once with a standing TKO and once with a ground-and-pound TKO. He’s always been a stand-up fighter though and that’s his path to victory here. Miller is an OK striker but I think he has a real chance to lose if the fight stays standing, so his best and most likely route to victory is through grappling.
Miller has always been a strong submission grappler, and even though he’s faced some tough guys like Diego Sanchez, Michael Chiesa and Beneil Dariush as of late, he should definitely have the advantage against Gomi. And what really concerns me for Gomi is his submission defense, or lack thereof.
Gomi has been submitted six times in his career and that doesn’t include any TKOs (like the one against Joe Lauzon) that were essentially submissions. I think Miller has a real chance to get this fight to the ground and finish Gomi, and even for the high price of 10.8k, I’m willing to pay for him in tournaments. I’m not expecting high ownership on this fight as a whole, which interests me even more, and Miller’s finish prop of +119 looks pretty tasty.
I even think Gomi is worth targeting in tournaments because if the fight stays standing he’ll have a route to victory where even if he wins by decision, I think he can put up 70 points. For the price of 8.6k, that’s good enough for me.
Fight Prediction: Miller by RNC, RD 2