UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor Beat Down
The rematch is finally here! I don’t know if you are excited as I am but Diaz vs. McGregor 2 should be a good one regardless of who wins.
There’s a ton of money to be won on this slate with over 200k in prize pools and four Gotham Qualifiers, which includes a 125k guaranteed Haymaker that costs $3 to enter. That tournament is the next King of the Summer contest, so make sure you enter!
If you missed our special UFC 202 Grinders Live with myself and gravycakes, you can watch that here.
Follow me on Twitter at BrettAppley and at DailyFanMMA.
Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz
Fight Odds: McGregor -130, Diaz +110
Odds to finish: -375
Salaries: McGregor 10.4k, Diaz 9.2k
Weight Class: 170
I can’t believe we are only a few days away from one of the biggest UFC rematches in the history of the sport, and it’s still mind-blowing to look back on how it came together.
Heading into that first fight, Conor McGregor was a lock to win, in the eyes of the bookies and the public. Nate Diaz hadn’t had a full training camp and McGregor had looked pretty unstoppable in his UFC career, but we know how that first fight ended.
Now that we’re heading into the second fight, the public has flipped, and it’s hard to find a guy who honestly thinks McGregor is going to win. The general sense turned from McGregor is going to dominate, to McGregor sucks and has never been a good fighter. How weird people can be, huh?
It is hard to ignore the recency bias and look at the fight from a fresh perspective, I mean we did just witness fight No. 1 a few months ago, what could possibly have changed?
Well, I want to start with one of the most common misconceptions in my opinion which is that Diaz’ jiu-jitsu is amazing, Conor’s sucks and that will be the clear difference in the fight. Of course I think Diaz is the more talented grappler, but if he’s using his jiu-jitsu from the top, I think the fight is already won.
In the first fight, the only reason Diaz was able to use that jiu-jitsu is because he hurt McGregor who forced an ill-advised takedown. That’s not an excuse, and there’s nothing wrong with it, but that’s what happened. It’s not like Diaz waved his magic wand and Conor layed down on his stomach and welcomed the choke. He was hurt, he was completely gassed, and Diaz isn’t going to miss that opportunity. But my point is that by the time Diaz was able to use that jiu-jitsu, he’d essentially already won the fight.
In the rematch, I don’t think much will change on that front. If Diaz gets to use that jiu-jitsu it’s because A) he knocks Conor to the ground and hurts him badly or B) Conor initiates the grappling (because he is badly losing on the feet). If either A or B happen, I think Diaz has already won. To say Diaz’ jiu-jitsu is better and so he’s going to win is like saying I think Diaz will get his hand raised at the end of the fight, so therefore he’s going to win. Still with me?
I’m not arguing that A or B in the above paragraph can or won’t happen, I just wanted to clarify that point. I could be wrong on this but I just don’t think Diaz’ wrestling is that great and he most likely won’t even try to use it, so I’m not going to weigh it heavily in my analysis.
On the feet, for the seven or so minutes that we saw, Conor in part largely won. He went for the kill immediately and landed some good shots, Nate landed some good shots, but Conor gassed himself out forcing the early knockout which he undoubtedly expected would come, and it did not, and that’s a huge mental blow.
So the question is can Conor correct something to prevent him from gassing, and if he can, I think he has a real shot to win. What we’ve always known about Diaz is that he trains the same and fights each time around, and this won’t be any different. McGregor has clearly made changes in his camp and training style between last fight and today, and that obsession that he and his coach shared over this rematch could not be better. Outside of overtraining for a fight, there’s no downside I see to analyzing and obsession over a specific opponent to try and train specifically to beat him, especially when you know what went wrong the first time.
TLDR, start here
All the mumbo jumbo aside, I expect this fight to play out differently. I don’t expect McGregor to come out as fast and as wild as he did in round 1 of the first fight, and I don’t expect him to gas as quickly. He’s still the faster fighter and he has better movement, and I really expect him to win those early rounds, as long as his new camp has prepared him properly.
I think Diaz fights well too, I expect a close and exciting contest early. After rounds two, it becomes more up in the air. If McGregor makes it to round 4, I think he’ll be fine for the final two rounds, and it wouldn’t shock me to see either fighter win a decision. I don’t think Diaz has the speed early, and if I’m ceding the first round or two to McGreogr, I think it’s more likely Diaz finishes within three rounds or loses.
On Conor’s side, I can see him getting finished quickly if, let’s say his training camp didn’t actually prepare him correctly or Diaz is actually that much better of a fighter and that size advantage is too big to overcome. It’s possible.
I can see Conor finishing Nate in the mid-rounds if he lands some heavy shots that missed last time. Sometimes accuracy is better than power.
I can also see Conor winning a decision if his cardio has improved a lot. He only needs to win three rounds to do this.
DraftKings Perspective
On DraftKings, Diaz is priced at 9.2k and McGregor is priced at 10.4k, even though the odds are basically 50/50. I can’t and will not talk you out of either guy in any format, but here are some things to think about.
Based on the fact of the first fight, the general feeling of confidence and buzz on Diaz heading into this fight, and his way too cheap price tag, I think Diaz will be the most popular fighter with ease. I think 60 percent is realistic, possibly higher. He’s an obvious cash game play to me, and I definitely think rostering him or McGregor is a great start to a tournament lineup, but the ownership gives me pause.
I think McGregor will be popular too, but I think 40 percent is more of a realistic number for him at his overprice. In tournaments, he’s an equally good play to Diaz in my opinion because of the massive ownership on Diaz, and McGregor’s odds to win and finish, which he’s still the favorite by the way.
In cash games, it’s a tougher call than it might seem but I think he’s in play. It’s hard for me to picture either fighter scoring less than 25 points with an upside of 110+, so I’m willing to roster both.
I think McGregor finds a way to get the job done Saturday night, and I think his obsession with training properly for this fight will be the reason.
Fight Prediction: McGregor by TKO, RD 2
Anthony Johnson vs. Glover Teixeira
Fight Odds: Johnson -190, Teixeira +165
Odds to finish: -300
Salaries: Johnson 10.7k, Teixeira 8.7k
Weight Class: 205
Anthony Johnson is one of the biggest hitters in the UFC and he’s almost always a great tournament option when he fights, and this weekend is no different. He takes on Glover Teixeira who’s going to have his hands full avoiding the power and trying to get the fight to the ground.
It’s not that Teixeira can’t strike, he’s not bad on the feet but as long as the two are trading, you have to favor Johnson and that knockout power. Plus, Teixeira doesn’t have the best chin in the division and Johnson should be able to take whatever Glover throws his way.
Where Teixeira does have the advantage is in submission grappling, and possibly cardio and those will be two key factors in this fight. If Teixeira can get Johnson down, he’ll have a good chance to submit him. I really do not think that’s going to happen early while Johnson is fresh, but as the fight goes on and Johnson tires, it could be a factor.
The way I see this playing out is Johnson wins by a quick TKO, or Glover wins by a late submission. Or the third and scariest option is that it’s a somewhat boring fight in which both fighters are tenative. This isn’t HW but it’s close to it, and if it gets out of the first round, I won’t be shocked to see a low-scoring decision.
On DraftKings, Johnson is a great play in tournaments and worth cash consideration, but he’s not a must-play. He’ll be highly owned too, so there’s merit in fading him in some lineups. I like Glover a bit at his price but I don’t love him because I don’t think he can finish quickly. An 80 point win might be enough though, and I think he’s capable of that.
Fight Prediction: Johnson by TKO, RD 1
Rick Story vs. Donald Cerrone
Fight Odds: Cerrone -165, Story +145
Odds to finish: +125
Salaries: Cerrone 10k, Story 9.4k
Weight Class: 170
One of the most likable fighters in the UFC, Donald Cerrone looks to continue his hot streak in the 170 lb. division after an impressive finish of Patrick Cote, and he gets a really tough guy in Rick Story opposite him.
Cerrone should be the better range striker in this fight and I think he can beat up Story from the outside, but I’m not super confident in that. Story should outsize Cerrone by a good margin and he’s never been knocked out in his career of 27 fights. I get that Cerrone can finish and he’s fun to watch, but how much do you really want to invest hoping that this is the first time Story gets knocked out?
Story’s best chance to win is to get inside and punish Cerrone to the body where he is susceptible, or get him down and control from top. I think he’s capable of a mixed bag, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a close decision.
The finish props on both fighters aren’t exactly staggering, Story sits at +557 and Cerrone sits at +215 which is respectable. I think you can have a dose of Cerrone if you like, I’m just not going to overextend myself on a guy fighting Story.
Fight Prediction: Cerrone by Decision
Hyun Gyu Lim vs. Mike Perry
Fight Odds: Lim -270, Perry +230
Odds to finish: -300
Salaries: Lim 11.1k, Perry 8.3k
Weight Class: 170
Hyun Gyu Lim falls in the same category as Anthony Johnson and Tim Means this week, but Lim might be my favorite of the three, especially in tournaments. It’s not necessarily because of his raw talent or skill level, but more so because I’m not very high on Mike Perry.
Perry is a 6-0 regional fighter making his UFC debut on short notice, and he’s won all six of his fights by KO/TKO. There’s no doubting he has powerful fists, but I can doubt the rest of his game. He hasn’t fought the best competition and what doesn’t show in the records is how easily he gets hit and hurt.
He’s been knocked out clean inn the past, but the round ended before the ref stopped it and he was able to recover and come back to win. He’s not very active or skilled on the feet, so he tends to rely on that one-shot power, which has come through for him time and again. I think Perry can win this fight if he comes out quickly and lands several hard punches on Lim, but otherwise, he should lose.
Lim is much more experienced and technical, and I don’t think Perry can take a shot. I expect this fight to play out on the feet so there should be fireworks early, and I’m also expecting Lim to come out of the rubble with a TKO win.
I don’t necessarily love Lim in cash games, he’s still slightly overpriced compared to his odds but he’s one of my favorite tournament plays. Even though he has a puncher’s chance, I won’t have much if any of Perry this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Lim by TKO, RD 1
Tim Means vs. Sabah Homasi
Fight Odds: Means -440, Homasi +350
Odds to finish: -260
Salaries: Means 10.9k, Homasi 8.5k
Weight Class: 170
As the second heaviest favorite on the card at -440, with an ITD prop of -170, Tim Means is in a great spot from a fantasy perspective. He’s priced below 11k, and I think he’s a great spot to start your cash games.
Means is an ultra-aggressive fighter who will move forward and not stop and that’s always good to target. The matchup itself is interesting as he’s facing Sabah Homasi who flunked out of The Ultimate Fighter, but has rebounded well on the regional scene. In fact, Homasi won by KO as recently as Aug.5, which means he’s taking this fight on short notice.
I don’t mind Homasi in the fight to be honest, especially at a low ownership. I get that he’s not likely to win but if he does win, it’s almost certainly by a quick knockout. You can say similar things about Mike Perry or Mike Griffin on this card, but I respect Homasi’s game more than the others and it wouldn’t completely shock me to see him get the upset.
With that said I think he’s worth a look in tournaments. If this fight gets past the seven minute mark, I think Means wins easily. I do not see Homasi winning a decision, and Means can finish at any point in the fight. I don’t necessarily think Means gets the job done in quick fashion, but it’s definitely possible.
Fight Prediction: Means by TKO, RD 2
UNDERCARD
Cody Garbrandt vs. Takeya Mizugaki
Fight Odds: Garbrandt -600, Mizugaki +450
Odds to finish: -170
Salaries: Garbrandt 10.3k, Mizugaki 9.1k
Weight Class: 135
I think both hardcore fans and the general public alike are excited to watch Cody Garbrandt in action again after he demolished Thomas Almeida in May, and he gets another opponent in Takeya Mizugaki who doesn’t exactly send shivers down my spine.
In fact, Garbrandt is an overwhelming favorite at -550 and is the heaviest favorite on the card. If Garbrandt was priced at 11k, I’d lock him in for a 30 percent ownership. He is, however, only priced at 10.3k, and while it’s “fun” that we get to roster an obvious great play at such a cheap price, ownership now becomes very significant.
In cash games, there’s no reason not to roster Garbrandt. Besides being the biggest value on the card, his boxing/wrestling combination should be more than enough to get the job done against Mizugaki, and it’s likely he earns a stoppage as well. With an added finish prop of -150, fade him in cash games at your own risk.
In tournaments, we need to have a serious talk. If Garbrandt is going to push 60-70 percent ownership which I think is likely, there’s a valid argument to fading him completely. If he wins a decision or loses, that’s a massive percent of the field that’s immediately cut down. While I think he can certainly stop Mizugaki, it’s not a lock. Remember, Garbrandt couldn’t even finish Henry Briones and Mizugaki has only been finished twice in 30 fights.
Overall, Garbrandt is an elite play this weekend and I’ll have my fair share of him, but I will definitely intentionally fade him on a handful of teams as well.
Fight Prediction: Garbrandt by Decision
Raquel Pennington vs. Elizabeth Phillips
Fight Odds: Pennington -260, Phillips +220
Odds to finish: +165
Salaries: Phillips 10.2k, Pennington 9.2k
Weight Class: 135
On the average fight card, I wouldn’t expect many people to roster either Raquel Pennington or Elizabeth Phillips, but this is no average fight card. This is UFC 202!
OK, I know that last part has no relevance, but what does matter is that Pennington is a -255 favorite and priced at 9.2k, making her one of the biggest values on the card. If the pricing was flipped, I wouldn’t be recommending Pennington because her odds to finish aren’t the best at +246, but at 9.2k, it’s hard to ignore her.
Pennington is a well-rounded fighter who should beat most of the lower-level 135ers, but she’s also a fighter who won’t stack up well with the elite. Fortunately, I think Elizabeth Phillips is pretty much a worse version of Pennington, and I expect Pennington to have success here.
Phillips has fought Milana Dudieva and Jessamyn Duke in her past two fights, and she really hasn’t looked overly impressive. She likes to dip her head and swing wildly on the feet, and while she can shoot for the takedown and wrestle a bit, her grappling isn’t overwhelming. I think Pennington is more technical on the feet and she should be a better grappler. Plus, Pennington has fought to a split decision with Holly Holm, and she’s faced off against Bethe Correia, Jessica Andrade and Cat Zingano, and that’s experience that shouldn’t be understated.
I wouldn’t roster Pennington expecting a finish, but I think a 60+ point decision is fairly likely. For her odds to win alone compared to her price, I think she’s a very solid cash game play. Even though I’d prefer targeting someone with better odds to finish in a GPP, rostering a fighter with good odds to win and a significant strike rate of 4.33 is more than enough to put her in play.
Fight Prediction: Pennington by Decision
Artem Lobov vs. Chris Avila
Fight Odds: Lobov -115, Avila -105
Odds to finish: -140
Salaries: Lobov 10.8k, Avila 8.6k
Weight Class: 145
I know it’s fun to pick on Artem Lobov but from what I’ve seen this past week, I think people are completely dismissing him and/or this matchup without really analyzing it.
To start, the one and only reason the UFC made this fight is because Lobov is a training partner of McGregor and Chris Avila is a training partner of Diaz, not because either is especially talented.
While that statement rings true for Lobov, it includes Avila as well. Lobov is 0-2 in his UFC career and has looked poor, losing in dominant fashion by BJJ superhero Ryan Hall and falling in a decision to Alex White.
Lobov has a tendency to be lackadaisical on the feet and he can get caught not throwing punches for long gaps of time. His wrestling is also a bit suspect, and although he’s been submitted in the past, holding off a finish from Hall gives me some confidence in that area. Avila is similar to the Diaz brothers in a way, he’s a good albeit not great boxer and has decent jiu-jitsu.
He’s only 5-2 in his MMA career and he hasn’t fought the best opponents, so you have to give Lobov the big experience advantage in both those areas. Both fighters seem pretty tough, so I don’t see a real advantage there, but I do think Lobov holds a significant power advantage and he’s only been TKO’d once in 25 fights (including TUF).
From a matchup perspective, I expect this fight to play out the feet for a good while. I could be wrong here, but I don’t think Avila’s wrestling game is that strong to get the fight to the floor and I expect him to be at an athletic disadvantage. Plus he’s making his debut, so those extra nerves could play a factor. If this fight plays out the feet, I think it will be competitive, but I honestly favor the technique and power of Lobov slightly.
If Avila can get the fight down, he’ll have a great chance to win or possibly finish. The odds suggest a close fight at -115 to -105 in favor of Lobov, but I think the general public strongly favors Avila. So much in fact that they’re blindly picking Avila without watching any of his fights. It’s fine in a sense, if Lobov performs like he has the past two fights, Avila can certainly win, but I don’t think it’s a lock.
What adds an extra kick to this fight is the pricing, as Avila sits at only 8.6k compared to Lobov’s 10.8k. Avila will be moderately popular, and I don’t think many people will touch Lobov.
Because of the projected ownership, I’m intrigued by Lobov in tournaments. He has a good shot to win (even at 50 percent) and his finish prop is +160, which is one of the better ITD props on the card. If he’s going to be sub 15 percent ownership in major tournaments, I think rostering him in a few lineups is a great contrarian strategy, especially with Anthony Johnson and Tim Means surrounding him in that price range.
I won’t talk you off Avila either, but I don’t expect a finish from him at +330 odds and with a bunch of people on him, I think there are better options if you want to dive down in price.
Fight Prediction: Lobov by Decision
Randa Markos vs. Cortney Casey
Fight Odds: Markos -140, Casey +120
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Casey 9.8k, Markos 9.6k
Weight Class: 115
Cortney Casey was a fairly popular selection in her last fight against Christina Stanciu, and she came through with a first round TKO finish, and that should bring some moderate ownership on her again in this fight against Randa Markos.
Markos is 2-2 in her UFC career and she’s a tough test for most, although she lacks a high level striking game, her wrestling/grappling game is good enough to pressure most fighters and force them into her game. She lost to Karolina Kowalciewicz by decision two fights ago, but rebounded with a decision victory over Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger last June.
In general, I think this fight is best served as a fade, there are too many other finishing options on this card and this fight isn’t very likely to end before the final bell. The Over on 2.5 rounds is -210, and Casey and Markos carry a respective ITD prop of +310 and +435. Those aren’t good enough to invest in, even at a reasonable price.
Markos is actually the slight favorite in this bout, but even with her price value, I don’t expect anyone to be on her. I think she’s likely to get the job done here with her pressure wrestling game, but I still won’t have her on my teams. Even if Casey can keep the fight standing and outstrike Markos to a victory, I don’t see a finish, and with her moderate expected ownership and price compared to the odds, I just don’t see a reason to target her either.
Fight Prediction: Markos by Decision
Neil Magny vs. Lorenz Larkin
Fight Odds: Magny -140, Larkin +120
Odds to finish: +140
Salaries: Magny 10.5k, Larkin 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
This is probably the fight that’s giving me the most trouble on this entire card. Both Neil Magny and Lorenz Larkin are high level fighters making their way toward the top, and I can see routes to wining and finishing for both.
But at the same time, it’s often the better fighters that leave less openings for their opponents, which means less finishes. The biggest key in this fight for me is Magny’s range, which he has an eight-inch reach advantage over Larkin. He’s shown a good jab as of late and if he can keep Larkin on the outside, he should have a good shot to win.
He’s also a good wrestler, and a smart fighter, so I can see him getting the job done on the ground, even potentially with a submission. What’s scary about Larkin is that he’s much more powerful and Magny has been known to start slow and get hit, so if Magny can’t keep Larkin at distance or take him down, he could eat a few hard punches that put him away for good.
I know people will be heavy on Larkin, he’s priced too cheaply compared to his odds. I don’t mind him but I won’t be heavy on him this week. I don’t think Magny will be touched by many people as he’s overpriced and in a juicy range, but I think he’s worth a look at the low ownership in tournaments.
Both fighters have an ITD prop above +300 so it’s not likely that this fight finishes, and I think that’s something to note as bias creeps in over the Vegas odds, which I trust more than my heart. Take a stab at either guy, especially Larkin for the value, but don’t go all in on this fight.
Fight Prediction: Magny by Decision
Colby Covington vs. Max Griffin
Fight Odds: Covington -345, Griffin +285
Odds to finish: +110
Salaries: Covington 11.3k, Griffin 8.1k
Weight Class: 170
The matchup between Colby Covington and Max Griffin is one of the simpler fights to break down, and not just from a matchup perspective. Covington is the highest priced fighter on the card at 11.3k, and he currently sits as the fourth heaviest favorite at -300, meaning he’s a bit overpriced on DraftKings.
Covington is an elite wrestler outside of MMA and he’s a high-quality prospect in the Welterweight division. He’s aggressive on the feet and looks to push the pace and grind his opponents down, and so far he’s been successful.
Max Griffin is making his UFC debut out of West Coast Fighting with a 12-2 record, and he’s primarily a striker, winning six of his fights by TKO. He’s going to need to keep the fight standing because his submission grappling game isn’t UFC-ready in my opinion. Unfortunately, I think he’ll have a massive challenge to keep the fight upright for longer than a minute or two.
Griffin has shown poor takedown defense in his recent fights, and he’s also shown the tendency to give up his back, which will undoubtedly lead him to losses in the UFC. He’s actually never been finished in his career which is a good sign, but the higher level opponents he faces, the more likely a finish (submission) will be. IF he can keep the fight standing, he’s probably at an advantage and I think he will have success against Covington.
If you want to throw a dart on Griffin as the lowest priced fighter, with some odds value, on the hope that he can land a TKO, I’m not completely against it. He’ll be massively low owned, and for good reason, but this is MMA and I don’t think his chances are very good. He probably won’t find his way onto my teams.
The biggest issue with Covington is that aforementioned price tag, because he’ll need a first round finish regardless to end up on winning lineups, and even that might not do it. I do think the opportunity for him to get a submission finish is there, but there are better plays in his price range, and I think he’s a relatively easy fade this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Covington by RNC, RD 3
Alberto Uda vs. Marvin Vettori
Fight Odds: Vettori -170, Uda +150
Odds to finish: -260
Salaries: Uda 10.6k, Vettori 8.8k
Weight Class: 185
Good ol’ Alberto Uda is back in action to open UFC 202 against newcomer Marvin Vettori of Venator FC. In Uda’s last fight, which was his UFC debut, I essentially wrote about how hopefully I was entering his tape study and how unimpressed I was at its conclusion.
Uda is a very talented clinch fighter, and more specifically, he throws heavy knees that have the ability to end fights. What’s depressing is that’s really all there is to get excited about him. He showed his upside in his debut against Jake Collier with those knees, breaking Collier’s nose early, but he showed his downside as well.
As a range striker, he’s poor. He throws some kicks but nothing major. He’s fairly average as a wrestler and has good submission skills from his back, but he’s not a top-control grinder. He also showed horrendous cardio and his striking defense has always lacked technique, even if he can take a few punches.
Vettori is a young kid, but I’m excited about him. There’s always reason to be cautious about newcomers but he has the tools on paper to excel in the UFC and he’s got room to grow at Kings MMA where he currently trains.
Vettori’s biggest strengths are his athleticism and grappling. He’s shown improved ability on the feet, but he’s not much better than Uda from range. I do think his wrestling is stronger and he should have the advantages in overall grappling. The problem from a matchup perspective is that Uda has to force the clinch to do any significant offensive damage, but I don’t think he’s likely to keep the fight standing if he does that.
I think the first round could be close with Vettori having the edge by landing a takedown or two, but it’s semi-difficult to predict the exact amount of offense each fighter will land on the feet. Once the fight hits round two or three, I think Vettori can grind down Uda more and can hopefully come away with a TKO or submission.
I say hopefully because as a -170 favorite, Vettori is one of the bigger values on the card with a price of 8.8k. Of course he has risks but I have no problem targeting him in any format for those odds. I don’t expect his ownership to be massive either, which is good for tournaments, especially with a finish prop of +112.
Uda is well overpriced at 10.6k compared to his odds as a +150 dog, and I don’t think anyone will be on him. You can argue, or even pull the trigger if you have guts, that Uda is a nice contrarian play based on that fact and that he still carries a +240 finish prop. I’m personally not a fan of the guy, and I’d rather find another fighter to roster if I’m spending that much money.
Fight Prediction: Vettori by RNC, RD 2