UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem Beat Down
Hello friends, welcome back to another edition of the UFC Beat Down, this time it’s the UFC 203 edition. We have some great HW matchups at the top of the card including the heavyweight title fight in Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem, and of course we have the debut of wrestling superstar CM Punk. It should be a fun card.
DraftKings is hosting a $75k Main Event with a $60K Takedown and multiple Gotham Qualifiers, so make sure you get in those contests!
Gravycakes and I recorded an episode of The Daily Fantasy MMA Podcast, which you can watch here.
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Onto the fights!
MAIN CARD
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Fight Odds: Miocic -140, Overeem +120
Odds to finish: -485
Salaries: Miocic 10k, Overem 9.6k
Weight Class: HW
In the main event of UFC 203, Stipe Miocic looks to defend his HW belt for the first time, at home in Cleveland, against longtime veteran Alistair Overeem.
Miocic earned the belt with a quick knockout of Fabricio Werdum, who fights in the co-main event, and based on the past two years of MMA, championship fights are completely up for grabs. I don’t think this matchup is any different, it’s a very close fight and I can definitely picture Overeem walking away with the belt as the new champion.
This fight is priced fairly well on DraftKings, but I have a suspicion Overeem will be the more popular of the two. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but I think Miocic has some clear advantages, especially in a five round fight.
If the fight gets to the championship rounds, I have to favor Micoc. He’s got the better cardio of the two and it’s tough for me to picture Overeem having enough gas left in the tank to outpace Miocic in rounds four and five. I also favor the output of Miocic as he lands 4.93 significant strikes per minute, compared to the 3.81 strikes landed of Overeem. If there are any close rounds, the output could play a significant role in the minds of the judges.
When it comes to power, I give the advantage to Overeem, and his kicking-centric game is certainly enough to get the job done by knockout. However, I think Miocic has the better chin of the two, which means he’s more likely to take those hard shots and stay standing.
Miocic also has the solid wrestling game and although I don’t think it will play a huge factor early, it could factor in late. To summarize from a fight perspective, I think Overeem can finish the fight early, but I don’t think he’ll taking the championship home on the score cards. With a high volume, the ability to win by decision and the ability to still grab that quick finish, I think Miocic should be the favorite and is the slightly better play, especially if he’s lower owned than Overeem.
I find myself drawn toward a stack in cash games because the fight is so close and I think the floor and ceiling are extremely high. I’ll also have exposure to both fighters in tournaments, and for the price, I recommend using one or the other in the majority of your lineups. Personally, I will have more exposure to Miocic this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Miocic by TKO, RD 3
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
Fight Odds: Werdum -225, Browne +185
Odds to finish: -165
Salaries: Werdum 10.7, Browne 8.7k
Weight Class: HW
Former UFC champ Fabricio Werdum takes on Travis Browne in the co-main event, which is a rematch from 2014 that saw Werdum take an impressive five-round decision.
Honestly, between that fight and now I feel like Werdum has gotten better while Browne has gotten worse. Werdum looked very good in that first fight and his continued training with Kings MMA led him to a world title. He outpaced Browne on the feet with a 120-60 sig strike advantage, and had a distinct advantage on the ground, landing a couple takedowns along the way.
Meanwhile, Browne has switch over to Team Rousey where his training hasn’t appeared to pay off, and he’s looked mediocre at best in his past few fights. I just don’t know how much different this fight will be from the last, and I don’t think Browne has a better chance than he had the first time.
Where Browne wins this fight is in his power striking game. He rocked Werdum a couple times early before gassing himself, and I think he has a real chance to land a knockout blow to Werdum who is coming off a brutal knockout loss of his own. If he doesn’t get a a quick finish, I don’t think he has the tools to beat Werdum on the cards. Werdum can probably take this fight to the ground, but his striking is pretty underrated as well and it wouldn’t shock me to see him damage brown on the feet.
I like Browne for the price tag of 8.7k and I will have shares of him in tournaments, but I won’t be super-heavy on him. Werdum has a solid chance to win inside the distance at +174, but at 10.7k and with an expected moderate ownership, I won’t go crazy on him either. Browne lasted five rounds the first time and it’s not a stretch to think he can survive three rounds in the rematch.
Fight Prediction: Werdum by Decision
CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Fight Odds: Gall -440, Punk +350
Odds to finish: -660
Salaries: Gall 11.4k, Punk 8k
Weight Class: 185
I’m not sure if you’ve heard the news, but CM Punk, one of the most popular professional wrestlers in the world, is now fighting MMA. This will be his first fight ever, amateur or professional, and he’s taking on 2-0 Mickey Gall, who earned his UFC debut victory against amateur Mike Jackson in February.
I’ll start with this – This is a fight between a 0-0 and 2-0 fighter, anything can happen. Mickey Gall isn’t an elite prospect in the UFC and CM Punk CAN win the fight.
With that said, I have to favor Gall strongly because I think his overall skills are much better than Punk’s. At best, Punk is a low level blue belt in jiu-jitsu and I don’t know how much of that training came in the gi, which I don’t think is really necessary for MMA. I don’t know how good Punk’s overall ground game, it’s impossible to know for sure, but my guess is that it’s not very good compared to the average UFC fighter.
I do know that Mickey Gall has a very solid jiu-jitsu game. He’s a brown belt, and I’ve seen him compete. I’d be shocked if he didn’t have a distinct advantage when this fight hits the mat. He competed and held his own against Gordon Ryan, one of the best jiu-jitsu prospects in the world, in NAGA No Gi Experts a year and a half ago, and that says enough for me.
On the feet, my guess is that Gall has the better overall striking, which may shock some people. There’s not much to base it on, but I think Gall has been training for longer and I expect his game to be more diverse and fluid.
Punk could possibly have advantages in this fight but it’s hard to guess where, he’s probably the stronger athlete of the two, but that’s about all I can say. His best chance to win this fight is by knockout.
On DraftKings, Gall is the highest priced fighter at 11.4k, but I will definitely have shares of him. His inside distance prop of -280 and his first round finish prop of -115 is too good to pass up. I think he makes for a solid play in all formats, as long as you have the money to spend.
I don’t think he’ll be super popular based on the price, and I think Punk will land his fair share of ownership. I don’t plan on having much, if any of Punk this weekend even at a low price, and I’ll let others cross their fingers and hope for the upset.
Fight Prediction: Gall by Guillotine, RD 1
Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera
Fight Odds: Rivera -130, Faber +110
Odds to finish: +130
Salaries: Rivera 9.7k, Faber 9.7k
Weight Class: 135
This is a pretty #dope fight between Urijah Faber and Jimmie Rivera, but it’s probably a fight I’m more interested in from a real-life perspective than a fantasy one.
Faber needs no introduction but it should be said that unless he’s fighting against a championship opponent, Faber doesn’t lose. He now takes on Rivera as an underdog but I’m not necessarily disagreeing with the odds. Faber really excels when he can get the fight to the ground, but he’s also capable at winning an inside striking battle if his opponent can’t keep the fight at range. He’s got one of the best choking games in the business and he’s always a threat to win by submission.
Rivera seems to prefer to sprawl and brawl, but he’s got a good enough offensive wrestling game to take the fight down if he needs to. In this fight, I don’t think he’ll want to get the fight on the mat, even if he could. Rivera strikes at a much higher output than Faber, and I think his wrestling defensive and scrambling ability will be enough to keep the fight upright for the most part.
Even though Faber’s and Rivera’s finish props aren’t terrible at +388 and +275 respectively, I don’t see this fight ending quickly, and that limits the amount of exposure I want in this matchup. You can argue that Rivera is a value at his odds based on the price, and if you need him for cash games, I’m against it. This isn’t one of my favorite fights to target as a whole.
Fight Prediction: Rivera by Decision
Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood
Fight Odds: Andrade -130, Calderwood +110
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Andrade 9.9k, Calderwood 9.5k
Weight Class: 115
What really stands out to me in this fight between Jessica Andrade and Joanne Calderwood is their significant strike output, which stand at 6.58 and 7.35 respectively.
Those are the two highest numbers on the card and if this fight stays standing, which I expect it to, we could be in for fireworks. Automatically I think that gives both fighters a decent floor and puts them in consideration for cash games, but the upside isn’t equal. Andrade carries a finish prop of +175, while Calderwood’s is only +694, which is one of the worst on the card.
I definitely think Andrade is in play for tournaments and I will have some exposure to her, she’s super aggressive and more powerful than Calderwood, who’s shown time and again to be hittable. Calderwood can land a ton of volume, but if she can’t finish the fight, I won’t be on her too much in this spot.
I think the best route is to get some exposure to this fight, probably on the side of Andrade, but don’t go all in.
Fight Prediction: Andrade by Decision
UNDERCARD
Jessica Eye vs. Bethe Correia
Fight Odds: Eye -130, Correia +110
Odds to finish: +185
Salaries: Eye 10.1k, Correia 9.3k
Weight Class: 135
This fight is very similar to the one above, but with slightly less volume and much less upside overall. Jessica Eye strikes at a rate of 3.53 per minute, which is low in the sense that she’s been held down for enough time in her pas three fights that the number is skewed. Bethe Correia has landed at 5.7 sig. strikes per minute, so if this fight plays on the feet, there might be a ton of strikes landed.
I don’t see any reason why either fighter would take the fight to the ground, so I’m expecting a stand-up battle. Correia isn’t a great athlete and she’s not very powerful, so her upside is essentially 100 sig. strikes in a decision win. At her price that might be enough, but it’s probably better to fade her for the higher upside options.
Eye is the more expensive of the two and she has the better odds to finish at +287, but that’s really not enough for me to target her much either. There are enough fights that I think are likely to finish on this card, and while this one makes me a bit nervous, it’s going to be a general pass for me.
Fight Prediction: Eye by Decision
Brad Tavares vs. Caio Magalhaes
Fight Odds: Tavares -170, Magalhaes +150
Odds to finish: -130
Salaries: Tavares 9.8k, Magalhaes 9.6k
Weight Class: 185
Caio Magalhaes isn’t an elite prospect but he’s capable of finishing fights, and that’s what makes this matchup with Brad Tavares interesting.
Tavares is a pretty wooden striker with limited upside and he hasn’t finished a UFC opponent in his last six wins. Magalhaes is coming off a loss, but he’s capable of jumping on a submission or landing a heavy shot.
Tavares has been knocked out in two of his past three matchups, and I think Magalhaes can test his chin.
There’s just not enough upside for me to invest heavily in Tavares, even at the moderate price. I do like Magalhaes a good bit in tournaments because I think he’s capable of a quick finish.
It’s hard to trust either guy in this fight but I like Magalhaes more as a fantasy target.
Fight Prediction: Magalaes by TKO, RD 1
Nik Lentz vs. Michael McBride
Fight Odds: Lentz -400, McBride +350
Odds to finish: +115
Salaries: Lentz 10.2k, McBride 9.2k
Weight Class: 155
I haven’t been able to find much tape on Michael McBride, but I do know he’s making his UFC debut this weekend with an 8-1 record, with all eight wins coming by way of submission. Several of those submissions appear to have come off his back, which is often common on the regional scene.
From the information I’ve gathered, McBride is average at best with a submission grappling base, and it’s fair that he comes in as a significant underdog against veteran Nik Lentz.
If Lentz was priced properly, I probably wouldn’t have a ton of lineups with him, but he’s a strong value play at 10.2k. There are only 3 fighters favored higher than -200, and Lentz appears to be a very safe value play based on his odds and price. He’s not known as a finisher, but his inside distance prop of +160 is more than enough for me to give him looks in cash games and tournaments.
Lentz has already been through the ringer twice with Charles Oliveira, who’s one of the best submission grapplers in the UFC, and I find it hard to picture McBride giving him a ton of trouble, unless I am significantly underrated a part of McBrides overall game (which is possible). For the price, and the general uncertainty, I won’t be rostering McBride this weekend even at a projected low ownership.
Fight Prediction: Lentz by Decision
Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer
Fight Odds: Medeiros -140, Spencer +120
Odds to finish: +100
Salaries: Medeiros 10.5k, Spencer 8.9k
Weight Class: 170
I think this fight is a sneaky fight to target in tournaments, and my gut says that you should have a small amount of exposure to both sides.
Yancy Medeiros is making his way up from the 155 division to fight at 170, and he’s shown to be a decent range fighter with good submission grappling skills. He’s poor defensively, but he’s also tough.
Sean Spencer has shown power in his hands but he’s also shown poor cardio and a relatively weak chin. I think Spencer could hurt Medeiros early and potentially put him away, and based on the odds compared to the price, I think he’s a solid play in tournaments. He’s even in play for cash games if his odds continue to rise.
Medeiros is more likely to weather the early storm and finish late once Spencer gets tired. I could honestly see either outcome coming to fruition so that makes me want to target both sides. But it’s a very close fight and should be a fun one to watch play out.
Fight Prediction: Medeiros by Decision
CB Dolloway vs. Francimar Barroso
Fight Odds: Dolloway -170, Barroso +150
Odds to finish: +105
Salaries: Dolloway 10.9k Barroso 8.5k
Weight Class: 205
I’m not the biggest fan of Francimar Barroso and I won’t be targeting him in this matchup.
Barroso is a low-level fighter with little power and a low output striking game. He can get the fight to the mat, but he won’t do much from there either.
C.B. Dolloway is the more technical fighter here and he’s stepping up from 185 to take on Barroso at 205. His biggest issue is his chin, but unless he falls into a punch, he should avoid that knockout blow. I’m willing to take that chance and fade Barroso in this match.
The fight will probably be low paced and semi competitive on the feet, but Dolloway should have a distinct advantage on the ground. He has a chance to finish there too, although it’s not overwhelmingly likely.
Even for the price, I’m off Barroso completely, and I don’t want more than a dose of Dolloway as I don’t think his upside is elite. This is not one of my favorite matchups to target.
Fight Prediction: Dolloway by Decision
Drew Dober vs. Jason Gonzalez
Fight Odds: Dober -160, Gonzalez +140
Odds to finish: +120
Salaries: Dober 11.2k, Gonzalez 8.2k
Weight Class: 155
If you thought Drew Dober would be priced above 11k, you would be right. You would also be in the minority because Drew Dober is about as average a fighter as they come.
He’s the rightful favorite in this fight, but for the price I will have 0% of him and it’s not really a tough decision. He’s taking on UFC newcomer Jason Gonzalez on short notice, which of course makes me nervous, but I like Gonzalez for the price.
He’s shown to be a finisher in his regional career with 4 TKO wins and 6 submission wins. In 12 fights, he’s never been to the distance. On the feet he seems to be a high output striker but what I really like about him is his size advantage, as he carries significant height and reach over Dober. That could definitely play a factor in this fight and I think it gives him the upside I’m looking for.
Dober can certainly get the fight to the ground, which is his probably his best chance to win, but I’m not sold on his wrestling just yet. This could be a close, back-and-forth fight but it comes down to the price for me, and I’ll have Gonzalez in my lineups this weekend.
Fight Prediction: Gonzalez by Decision