UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson Quick Picks
The biggest rematch in UFC history is only a few days away. Well, maybe it’s not the biggest rematch but the storylines behind Michael Bisping and Dan Henderson fighting for the belt are phenomenal and it should be a great card overall.
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For now, I’ll be breaking down two cash game plays, two tournament plays and my fade of the week here on the Quick Picks, so let’s get started.
Cash Game Plays
1. Michael Bisping, $9,100
I always look to the main event for potential cash game plays and Michael Bisping fits the mold for me this week. His matchup against Dan Henderson isn’t perfect, but he has a great chance to win and score highly.
Henderson has faded as the years have passed, but he’s been blessed with a powerful right hand which has kept him in the UFC and gotten him in this position. If Bisping isn’t careful, Henderson can land that right hand and put him out, again. But if Bisping comes in with a solid game plan, which I’m expecting, this should be a dominant performance.
Outside of a first or second round KO, I don’t think Henderson can win this fight. Bisping strikes at a much higher volume and has a much higher pace, and he’s a near lock to win a decision if the fight his the score card. Even in a decision, Bisping can reach 100 or more significant strikes, which is more than enough to put him in play for cash games, and his finish prop of -110 proves he has upside as well.
2. Brad Pickett, $7,900
There aren’t many fighters below 8k who I think have a good chance to win, but I think Brad Pickett can certainly beat Iuri Alcantara, and he makes for a solid cash play at 7.9k.
For the price, and for this game type, I’m not looking to blow the roof off with 100 points. I want someone who’s unlikely to get finished quickly, with an opportunity to score in a loss, and a decent chance to win the fight. Pickett fits that mold.
The fight as a whole is set at Over 2.5 rounds -170, and it’s likely to go the distance. Pickett lands 3.15 significant strikes per minute, higher than Alcantara, and he’s a successful wrestler as well, so the opportunity to score is there, even in a decision loss.
I don’t necessarily think Pickett can or will finish, but in England, in front of the home crowd, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him squeak out a victory. He’s not a lock, but he’s safe and he’s worth considering in a card that lacks value.
Tournament Plays
1. Rob Font, $9,300
I’ll say from the beginning that Rob Font is worth considering in cash games as well, but there’s an added risk to his fight. He’s facing Ian Entwistle, a leg lock specialist who usually wins by quick submission or gets knocked out.
This definitely looks like a fight Font can win, as long as he’s practiced his leg lock defense. The potential for him to lose quickly is still there too, which is why I prefer him in tournaments, but there’s no arguing the upside. Font is listed as -211 to win inside the distance, which is the highest on the card. He’s pretty expensive and I think he’ll be popular, but I will have plenty of him in tournaments.
I’ll also have a taste of Entwistle in tournaments, but I’ll talk more about why in my Premium section.
2. Danny Roberts, $8,100
The fight between Danny Roberts and Mike Perry is an elite spot to target in tournaments, which I break down more in MMA Premium, but I will say that Roberts is one of my top tournament targets.
Roberts is +100 to win inside the distance which is very good for 8.1k, and we even get slight odds value on him for that price as a -140 favorite. Mike Perry as a ton of power, and that can’t be ignored, but his chin hasn’t looked good on the region scene and I question his overall skill set.
If Roberts can avoid the Hyun Gyu Lim game and not run straight into Perry’s power shots, I think he can land some damaging shots of his own, and earn a stoppage along the way. Get yourself a piece of both sides of this fight, especially Roberts.
Fade of the Week
1. Albert Tumenov, $9,200
The goal for this section isn’t to simply pick the worst fighter on the card, but rather to give insight as to why a potentially popular play may not be in the best spot. This week I want to talk about fading Albert Tumenov in tournaments.
I think Tumenov will be popular, he’s shown knockout power in the UFC and this fight with Leon Edwards is expected to play out on the feet. But at the price of 9.2k, I just don’t think he makes for the best tournament play in that range, and if you’re paying up for one or two guys above 9k, you really need a quick finish and 100+ points.
I do think Tumenov wins this fight, but Edwards isn’t a bad striker, and he’s been known to fight at a slow pace. Not only does it hurt his own offense, but it should slow down the offense of Tumenov a bit. Edwards only absorbs 1.81 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, which is really low. I expect Tumenov to land more than that, but I don’t think the openings to finish will be there.
If he can’t get a quick finish, this fight is likely to end in a decision, and even if he scores 80 points, I don’t think that’s enough in tournaments. With Mousasi, Bektic, Font and Bisping above 9k, I think all make for stronger plays and that’s why I’m recommending the semi-risky fade of Tumenov in tournaments.