UFC 205: Alvarez vs. McGregor Quick Picks
UFC 205 is here! Possibly the greatest card ever assembled will be going down on Saturday night as the UFC hits New York for the first time in the sport’s history. There are some sick contests on DraftKings, including a 150k Haymaker and a 100k Axe Kick. It’s also the finale to the Rumble in Gotham final, and the Battle for New York live final.
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Stay tuned for a Grinders Live show on Thursday at 9 PM ET with myself and gravycakes, breaking down each and every UFC 205 fight!
CASH GAME PLAYS
1. Joanna Jedrzejczyk, $9,300
We begin with the top priced fighter on the board in Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who can be owned for 9.3k on DraftKings, as the biggest favorite on the board at -410. Not only does she have massive odds to win, but her significant strike count of 6.36 per minute bring safety to your roster.
Jedrzejczyk is fighting Karolina Kowalkiewicz, who I love in cash games as well, and this is a fight that should last the full 25 minutes, taking place primarily on the feet. In her last fight, Jedrzejczyk landed 176 significant strikes, and in the fight before that, she landed 220. There’s no reason for me to believe she lands less than 150 over the course of five rounds, which gives you a floor of 75 points, win or lose.
Kowalkiewicz is a competitive striker who should keep pace with Jedrzejczyk, and won’t mind taking shots to land her own. Even though Jedrzejczyk is expensive, she has the highest floor on the entire card, and is a great place to start your cash game lineups.
2. Stephen Thompson, $8,800
Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson may not be the champion, but as a -200 favorite against the current title holder Tyron Woodley, Thompson makes for a great play at 8.8k. Thompson is a karate-style striker with great distance management, and he should have the advantages while this fight stays standing.
He’s fought high-level wrestlers before and shown the ability to keep the fight upright, and if he can do that against Woodley, this is his fight to win. More than that, it’s very unlikely Woodley finishes Thompson early in the fight, and in a five-round contest, Thompson should still be able to score well if he can’t take home the victory.
Thompson lands at 4.69 significant strikes per minute, and topped 100 significant strikes in his last bout against Rory MacDonald, but he also has a good ITD prop of +137. Of all six fighters in five-round fights, I expect Woodley to be the lowest owned, so if he does retain the belt, it shouldn’t kill your lineups.
GPP PLAYS
1. Rafael Natal, $8,100
There are a few things going for Rafael Natal that make me like him in tournaments. He’s not a big name on a card filled with big names, and I expect many people to roster a stars-and-scrubs type lineup, which should leave Natal fairly low owned.
He’s also priced at 8.1k, even though he’s a -155 favorite with an ITD prop of +190, which means there’s significant odds value and upside in Natal. He’s fighting Tim Boetsch at UFC 205, a capable but slow fighter who’s been finished in four of his last six fights.
Natal is a world-class submission grappler, and if he can get Boetsch on the floor, he’ll have a great chance to earn a submission. Even if the fight stays standing, Natal should be at a speed advantage and will be in play for a knockdown or TKO.
In card where the general public will be active, I think it’s a good idea to take some chances on a lesser known name with high upside.
2. Conor McGregor, $8,600
What kind of article would this be without the mention of Conor McGregor? Here he is for the price of only 8.6k, but let’s not forget that this could be a very tough fight with Eddie Alvarez, who is more than happy to lay on guys for 25 minutes if it gets him the win.
But McGregor is an elite striker with the power and technical edge in this fight, and there’s a great chance he wins with an early knockout. Alvarez has been beaten up by much worse strikers than McGregor, even in fights he’s come back to win, but there’s no arguing the upside on McGregor this weekend.
McGregor comes in with an ITD prop of -103, which is the best on the entire card. I expect him to be popular of course, but this is definitely a fight to target, and I think it’s highly likely that McGregor or Alvarez ends up on the winning tournament lineup.
FADE OF THE WEEK
1. Frankie Edgar, $9,200
At 9.2k, as a -340 favorite, I expect Frankie Edgar to be on a lot of people’s radar, especially the general public. While I think you CAN target him in cash games for the safety of the win odds, he will be a complete fade in tournaments for me.
With an ITD prop of nearly +300, I don’t think Edgar carries the upside needed for tournaments, especially at his price. There’s almost no way you can fit multiple top-tier fighters into a winning GPP lineup, and for me, I’d 100 percent take Jedrzejczyk over Edgar.
I don’t think Edgar will be massively owned, but unless he’s sub 10 percent, he’s going to be off my radar in tournaments completely.