UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC 206 Quick Picks, even though we lost a great main event, Max Holloway vs. Anthony Pettis is a glorious fight, and there’s still plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.
You can win your share of the 10k top prize in the $75K Axe Kick, or test your luck in one of two MMA Bracket Challenge Qualifiers. DK released the info on that in the promotions section, and it’s a 32-person, 20k top prize, 100k total contest, which is great for DFS MMA.
If you want full breakdowns, rankings, projections and access to the MMA Premium Chat, you can purchase the weekly subscription for only $5 here!
There’s also a UFC Albany card that takes place on Friday, and I’m including a Quick Picks and Expert Rankings for Premium members only, if you purchase the $5 subscription. We will also be giving away RG swag with a chat contest this week, so I hope to see you guys in there!
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Max Holloway, 8.8k
I love Max Holloway this weekend and he’s my favorite cash game play on the card. He’s got a tough fighter opposite him in Anthony Pettis, but I just feel like this is a great matchup and one that can produce a lot of DraftKings points.
This fight was originally booked as the co-main event to Daniel Cormier vs. Anthony Johnson, but since Cormier was injured, Holloway/Pettis was named the main event and re-booked as five rounds. That makes a huge difference to me in both aspects. I always love to target main events because they produce the highest scoring average fighter on a per card basis, and the extra two rounds do nothing but benefit Holloway.
Pettis has only fought twice since dropping down to 145 and it’s pretty clear he doesn’t have five round cardio at this weight class, which Holloway certainly does. Plus, Holloway lands 5.61 significant strikes per minute, which will add up. Unless Holloway gets finished, he should win this fight, and I have confidence he can survive Pettis’ attacks and win the interim belt.
2. Misha Cirkunov, 8.1k
It’s scary to list Misha Cirkunov as a cash play, only because he’s fighting a finish-or-be-finished fighter in Nikita Krylov. Krylov is on a five fight win streak, but I think Cirkunov is the better fighter and should be able to stop that streak.
More importantly, Cirkunov and Krylov are priced at 8.1k, yet Cirkunov is the -125 favorite with an ITD prop of +121. If a fighter carries odds value compared to their price, that fighter is almost always worth considering in cash games. I don’t think Cirkunov is a must play, but the value intrigues me.
I also think he should be able to get this fight to the ground where he’ll have a huge advantage. Krylov can win this fight standing, but there’s no reason for Cirkunov to play around on the feet. Both sides of this fight will be owned, but I’m with Cirkunov here.
Tournament Plays
1. Dooho Choi, 8.9k
“The Korean Superboy” Dooho Choi is back in action again, this time taking a big step up against Cub Swanson. Despite his boyish charm, Choi is a killer and has earned three consecutive first round knockouts.
Swanson is a veteran with more experience than Choi, so it’s a risk to go all-in on the youngster, but Choi clearly has the upside and he’s well on my radar. He’s a -220 favorite with an ITD prop of +100. Through three fights, he’s landing 7.03 significant strikes per minute. I like those numbers.
Swanson is a tough dude and hard to finish, but I don’t think he’s beating Choi on the feet. Choi is going to be aggressive and back Swanson up, and probably beat him up for a couple rounds. If Swanson really wanted to take this fight to the ground, that would be his best bet to win, but I don’t see him coming out with that gameplan. Even if Choi can get the job done via decision, he’s going to land plenty of strikes and it won’t kill you in GPP.
The one caveat here is that I expect Choi to be really popular, but he’s too hard to pass up in tournaments at 8.9k.
2. Jordan Mein, 9k
Jordan Mein is best known for being the kid who fought 40 professional fights by the age of 25, and he’s been out of commission since January of 2015. He’s fighting a newcomer by the name of Emil Meek, who’s best known for being the guy to knock out Rousimar Palhares in Venator FC.
Meek is a powerful striker, but he’s not as well-rounded or technical as Mein, who’s been fighting literally all of his life. This should be a great striking match and one that’s likely to end in a finish, but my money is on Mein.
He’s only a slight favorite at -160, which isn’t unfair based on his two year layoff, but he has an ITD prop of +120, which is more than respectable. Mein is also priced up a bit at 9k, and with Cerrone, Choi and Holloway in his range, I don’t see a high ownership on him.
There’s obviously risk here from more than one angle, but Mein’s finished 23 of his professional fights and clearly has upside, so I’ll be on him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Anthony Pettis, 7.4k
I know I’m double dipping here, so I’m either going to be very right, or very wrong, and I’m OK with that. I’m recommending fading, or at least being underweight to the field on Anthony Pettis in tournaments, depending on how many entries you have.
I really feel this is a great matchup for Holloway, and the bump up to a five round fight solidifies it. There aren’t a ton of obvious value plays, so even though I expect Holloway to be popular, I think Pettis will be highly owned as well. But if he doesn’t win the fight, he won’t be on the winning GPP team, so that’s where I’m planting my flag.
2. Rustam Khabilov, 9.2k
For a bonus fade, I think it’s probably safe to stay away from Rustam Khabilov at 9.2k. It’s a bit scary because he’s landed six takedowns in two of his past three fights, so there’s upside there, sort of. The problem is that Khabilov just doesn’t have much finishing capability, so it’s tough to pay that price with killers around him. I just don’t think he scores enough points in a decision to warrant 9.2k in GPPs.
His ITD prop if +276, which is poor for a -220 favorite, and he doesn’t land at enough volume on the feet. I’d much rather play anyone else 8.7k or higher than Khabilov.