UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos Quick Picks
Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! UFC 211 is finally here and there’s still 13 amazing fights intact, hopefully it stays that way!
If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here.
Myself and h3budda also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.
Make sure to hop in the Premium Chat Saturday as well to hang out and watch fights with us!
Onto the fights!
Cash Game Plays
1. Joanna Jedrzejczyk $8,800, and Jessica Andrade $7,400
It’s not the main event, but the 115 pound title fight between Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Jessica Andrade is the fight I’m most excited for from a real-life and fantasy perspective. It should be a super high-action fight for up to 25 minutes, and Jedrzejczyk and Andrade are two of my favorite DraftKings plays in all formats.
I’ve broken down this fight in full in the MMA Premium section, but it’s simply too hard for me to pick just one of these girls in cash games, so I’m writing up this fight as a whole. Jedrzejczyk is the champion and has defended the belt four times, and she’s a proven DK scorer. She lands significant strikes at an insanely high rate of 6.45 per minute.
In her last four fights, JJ has landed 171, 176, 220 and 126 significant strikes respectively, and unless she gets knocked out quickly, she’s going to land a ton more in this fight. On the other side Andrade fights at a pace even higher than JJ, landing 6.8 sig. strikes per minute while landing 2.6 takedowns per fight. The fact that this is a five round fight pretty much guarantees the winner will score a ton of points based on the fight-pace, but there’s a very good chance the loser will as well.
I know some people aren’t the biggest fans of stacking fights in cash games, but this is a great spot to lock up all the points in what should be the highest scoring fight of the night.
2. Junior Dos Santos, $7,700
My second cash play is the underdog in the main event, Junior Dos Santos, who’s fighting Stipe Miocic for the HW title.
Part of the reason I want to target Dos Santos is because he has a higher floor than most based on his price. Again, he gets two extra rounds to work with as long as he doesn’t get knocked out, and he lands significant strikes at a high rate of 4.89 per minute. Dos Santos has also already beaten Miocic in a five round decision that netted him more than 100 points.
Miocic opened as a wide favorite but has since dropped to -130, leaving Dos Santos as the small dog at +110, with an ITD prop of +160. Essentially, this fight is a toss up according to Vegas, but Dos Santos isn’t priced like it.
This isn’t the same matchup, but I think Dos Santos has a better chance to win than his price indicates, and I’m willing to plug him in my cash games for 7.7k.
Tournament Plays
1. Gadzhimurad Antigulov, $9,400
If I’m paying up in tournaments, I want to pay all the way up this week because there’s a couple fighters with strong chances to finish in the top tier. My favorite upside play of the bunch is Gadzhimurad Antigulov, who comes in at 9.4k.
Antigulov isn’t a big name and there’s definite risk in this fight, but that’s no problem for me in tournaments. He carries an ITD prop of -126 and with a potential lower ownership based on his unknown name, I think he’s a great tournament target. He’s fighting Joachim Christensen, a lower-level UFC fighter who has yet to impress me.
Antigulov isn’t the most technical fighter you’ll find, but he’s ultra-aggressive and wants to finish at all costs. He’s going to rush at Christensen early and try to get this fight to the ground, and that bodes well for potential DraftKings points. I think can get land a couple takedowns and passes, and hopefully earn himself an early finish, and that should give him a high enough score to hit the winning lineups.
2. Dustin Poirier, $8,100
It’s only been two fights since Dustin Poirier was knocked out by Michael Johnson, and most recently Poirier gritted his way to a tough decision over Jim Miller, but this is a matchup I think he can exploit.
Poirier is facing Eddie Alvarez, who is coming off the brutal TKO loss to Conor McGregor, and I’m expecting there to be fireworks in this fight as well. Both guys have questionable chins and both fighters have the ability to inflict damage, but my money is on Poirier.
Poirier is the better, more fluid, more powerful striker and Alvarez is only slowing down on the feet. Sure, Alvarez can win this fight with his wrestling but I give Poirier a significant advantage on the feet, and I think he has a chance to win by KO again. His ITD line is at +241, but more importantly, he’s only priced at 8.1k. I probably wouldn’t pay up 9.5k to take Poirier in this matchup, but for his average tag, I’m more than wiling to target him in tournaments.
Fade of the Week
1. Krzysztof Jotko, $8,700
There’s nothing wrong with Krzysztof Jotko as a fighter, but I don’t love his fantasy potential in this matchup and I don’t love his price, so he’s going to be my fade of the week.
Jotko is facing former WSOF 205 and 185 lb. title holder David Branch, and it’s simply a tough matchup to score points. Branch is big and strong, and he’s very well rounded, so I don’t think Jotko has a big edge anywhere this fight goes. I’d be surprised if Jotko can get Branch on the mat many times in this fight, and even if he can, Branch is a high level submission grappler.
Branch also has more power on the feet and should be able to control the clinch enough to limit any sort of offensive damage from Jotko. Essentially, Jotko needs a quick finish to pay off his price and with an ITD prop of +346, I don’t think that happens. There’s no need to pay 8.7k for Jotko this weekend.