UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway Quick Picks

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Welcome to another edition of the UFC Quick Picks! We have one of the best main events of the year in Aldo vs. Holloway and plenty of money to be won on DraftKings.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on this card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Myself and h3budda, along with DraftKings own Christie Sullivan, also broke down the card in full on Grinders Live, which can be found here.

Make sure to hop in the Premium Chat Sunday as well to hang out and watch fights with us!

Onto the fights!

Cash Games

1. Claudia Gadelha, $9,000

There are few fighters I LOVE in cash games this week, but I think Claudia Gadelha has a high floor and I’m willing to target her against Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Gadelha comes in at 9k, but she’s seen significant odds movement since the lines came out, and is now the heaviest favorite on the card at -325.

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Her odds to finish won’t be high, so if you are looking for a first round finish in your cash games, look elsewhere. What I like from her is that she’s a consistent wrestler, and she’s landed four or more takedowns in all of her UFC fights. That’s not an easy task, but she’s done it five times in a row.

I also think her matchup with Kowalkiewicz favors the wrestling of Gadelha. Kowalkiewicz is best in the clinch, but there’s nobody stronger than Gadelha, and I think she can get the job done in Brazil.

2. Jose Aldo and Max Holloway

People are SO concerned about who wins this fight. Who cares? On DraftKings, focusing on who wins the fight is level 1 thinking, we’re better than that. I broke down this fight in full in the premium section, but regardless of who you pick, this is a close fight and it will most likely play out like one.

I think there are reasons to fade this fight entirely on DraftKings, but in cash games, I’ll probably take both Jose Aldo and Max Holloway and call it a day. It’s a guaranteed 120 points, and I think many people will pick wrong on one side or the other, and that’s where I’ll make my money.

Tournaments

1. Paulo Borrachinha, $9,200

There are honestly a ton of fighters I think make for strong tournament plays, but Borrachinha is one of the best of the bunch, if you can afford him. He’s not the heaviest favorite on the card but he comes in with an ITD prop of -192, and a prop to win in the first round at -125.

I’m also not a fan of his opponent Oluwale Bamgbose, I think he has massive technical gaps and I pick against him in all of his fights. Sure, he can run at you and throw a spinning kick and knock you out, but that’s essentially it. He has no technical striking game and little ground game. Bamgbose is the stronger guy and he’s going to press forward, and I don’t think Bamgbose will be able to handle it, especially in Brazil.

If you watched the UFC last week you know how volatile this sport is, with Misha Cirkunov getting put out by a bunny shot behind the ear in 10 seconds, but I still he think was a strong longterm play, and I feel the same about Borrachinha. Of course, Borrachinha has more holes in game than Cirkunov, but the odds are too good to pass up, and I think he has one of the highest upsides on this card.

2. Antonio Carlos Junior, $8,900

There’s been a running joke with me and Eric Spicely ever since he’s been in the UFC. He’s pretty much screwed me in every fight, and before his fight against Thiago Santos (a lock spot for Santos), my gf randomly said Spicely was a great fighter and he was going to win. I laughed and proceeded to watch my money burn.

Now of course she says it all the time and people find it funny, but she’s wrong, and I’m going to continue targeting against him. This seems like a VERY strong matchup for Antonio Carlos Junior, who’s a former BJJ world champ. Spicely basically only has a grappling game, but it’s not on the level of ACJ, and I think ACJ is better in every area.

ACJ has screwed me and a lot of others on multiple occasions as well, and he’s inconsistent, that’s what makes this fight tough. But Spicely almost never makes it outside of the first round, and I simply don’t see him submitting ACJ, so I think he’s going to lose. More than likely, ACJ will get takedowns, passes and hopefully a submission, so I’m going to take my chances is tournaments and target against Spicely once again.

Fade of the Week

1. Marlon Moraes, $8,700

I always try to pick a higher priced fighter for this section, which is risky, but my most confident “fade” is Marlon Moraes at 8.7k. He’s coming into the UFC from WSOF and arguably one of the best 135ers in the world. But he’s being put to the test early against Raphael Assuncao.

Really, none of that matters, but what does matter is his price. He’s 8.7k, which means he’s probably going to need 100 points to end up on a winning lineup with how easily people are scoring these days. Moraes is primarily a striker and that’s where he’s going to have an advantage, so I think he needs a finish to get that done. He comes in with an ITD prop of +259, which isn’t strong for his price.

I’d also like to see him face this level of competition before I invest my money heavily on him, and Assuncao still is one of the best fighters in the world. This won’t be an easy matchup, and I doubt it’s a high scoring one, so I’ll look elsewhere for the price.

About the Author

bbbomb
Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.