UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 Quick Picks

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Welcome to the UFC 214 Quick Picks! This is one of the best cards of the year and there are literally HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of dollars to be won on DraftKings this week.

The GPP headliner has a cool $200K prize pool with $25K going to first place, that’s the biggest top prize of the year. DraftKings also released a contest to win 2 tickets to Mayweather vs. McGregor, which only costs $20 to enter.

If you want FULL BREAKDOWNS of every single fight on the card, projections, rankings and more, you can find that in the Premium Section here. We’ve also launched the Beta version of the MMA LINEUP BUILDER which you can access with my projections if you purchase the premium content.

Myself and BigMarley3 also broke down the card in full on GrindersLive, which can be found here.

Onto the fights!

Cash Game Plays

1. Cris Cyborg, 9.6k

It’s rare to say someone priced as highly as 9.6k has any value, but Cris Cyborg has value. I expected her to be north of 10k this week, but she’s only a few hundred dollars over the top tier of fighters, and her floor is worth paying up for.

Cyborg is a -1300 favorite with a -650 prop to win inside the distance, and she’s also -170 to win in the first round. Those are extreme numbers, and they can’t be ignored. Cyborg is taking off a tough Invicta FC champion in Tonya Evinger, who is durable and wrestle a bit. But I don’t see how she beats Cyborg without taking her the distance and grinding her out, and that outcome is extremely unlikely.

As long as Cyborg wins, she’s a high-paced enough fighter to score well, more than 100 points. I’m doing everything I can to fit her in cash games this week and take as close to a lock as there is.

2. Jon Jones, 8.9k

I don’t like the guy, but I’ll admit Jon Jones is a fairly safe option this week for 8.9k. He’s faced plenty of issues outside the sport and there’s potential for it to haunt him here in his return against Cormier, but I have to trust the numbers and trust his overall game.

I think the worst case scenario here for Jones is he loses three rounds and loses a decision, but that would still yield a fair amount of points. He scored 91 points points against Cormier last time, and I think it’s very reasonable he reaches the same number with upside. I do think there is merit to taking an underweight approach to the field in tournaments, based on his extreme ownership projection.

But for cash games, he’s a safe play and that’s what I’m looking for.

Tournament Plays

1. Tyron Woodley, 8.7k

Tyron Woodley is better served for tournaments than cash games in my opinion, and I view him as a boom or bust fighter. He has one of the strongest ITD props on the card at -113, and as long as he keeps the fight standing, he will have every opportunity to earn the knockout.

But he likely won’t wrestle, and he likely won’t strike in volume, so his entire score will be based around the fight outcome. There is a strong chance he finishes the fight within the first two rounds, with the pure power he has in his hands, and I’m willing to target him on DraftKings for 8.7k.

2. Jarred Brooks, 8.6k

If you’re basing your plays off ITD lines alone, you would never look twice at Brooks. He carries a finish prop close to +500 and we have to assume his best outcome is taking a decision against Eric Shelton. But Brooks is a grinder, a high-paced wrestler, and if he wins, there’s a strong chance it comes from the takedowns.

I do think he’ll be a bit overlooked at this price and I plan to have moderate exposure to him in tournaments. Remember, grappling based fights are the best to target, and this should be one of the few on the card this weekend.

3. Andre Fili, 9.2k

We know who the popular plays will be, the Jon Jones and Cris Cyborgs, and there’s nothing wrong with targeting them. But there’s also merit to pivoting off the high owned fighters to someone with similar upside, and I think Fili is that guy.

He’s facing a newcomer in Calvin Kattar on short notice, who is a decent boxer, but not on Fili’s level. Fili carries an ITD prop of +100, which is very strong and much better than Jon Jones’ of +255, for example.

If Fili is going to be 20 percent owned, which I think is a reasonable guess considering his price of 9.2k, I think he’s a great tournament target.

Fade of the Week

1. Aljamain Sterling, 8.3k

There are so many strong plays in the mid range and top tier, and I think Aljamain Sterling is one of the least interesting options of the week. Sterling is fighting Renan Barao, and because he’s primarily a grappler, Sterling will likely need to get the fight down to win.

But Barao has some of the best takedown defense in the history of the sport, he’s still never been taken down in the UFC. I can’t assume Sterling will be the first, especially with any consistency. And I favor Barao on the feet.

The problem for Barao is that the most likely outcome is a slower-paced decision win, and that’s not ideal. But I’d rather take a winner than a loser, and I think Barao will get the job done Saturday. Sterling really needs the finish or multiple takedowns to pay off the price tag of 8.3k, and I don’t see that happening, so I will look elsewhere this week.

About the Author

bbbomb
Brett Appley (bbbomb)

One of the top MMA minds in the DFS industry, Brett Appley a.k.a bbbomb has been writing his weekly “Beat Down” article for RotoGrinders since the sport launched on DraftKings in 2015. Brett has earned multiple Top 10 rankings in MMA since that time and has taken down a handful of tournaments as well.