UFC 215: Johnson vs. Borg Quick Picks
Welcome to the UFC 215 Quick Picks! There are massive prize pools this week, with more than $400K up for grabs, including a $200K GPP with $25K to first place!
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Onto the fights!
*THE MAIN EVENT (DJ/BORG) HAS BEEN CANCELED! I HAVE UPDATED THE ARTICLE TO REFLECT THAT!
Cash Game Plays
1. Alex White, $7,400
Speaking to safety in line value, there are some significant price discrepancies between the DraftKings salaries and the Vegas odds. This is mostly because DK released the salaries a couple weeks early, to get more players excited for the big tournaments, and so they incorrectly priced a few fighters as a result.
One of those fighters is Alex White, who costs 7.4k but comes in as a -190 favorite. In general, there’s nothing safe or exciting about White, he’s an average muay-thai striker who lands at a decent clip and has improved his wrestling. But the price, that’s what matters. White should be priced in the mid 8ks, yet there’s only four fighters cheaper than him.
Regardless of what I think of the matchup, targeting these discrepancies will give you a longterm advantage, especially in cash games. I do think White has a good chance to win the fight from an analysis perspective, he should have the advantage on the feet and can likely strike his way to two or three rounds and a decision victory. But for the price, I’m plugging him into cash games and not thinking twice.
2. Arjan Bhullar, $7,900
NOTE: Previously I had Bhullar listed as a tournament play and I like him there, but he’s crept up to a -200 favorite on DraftKings. He’s still 7.9k so he’s another immense value we can consider. I do not consider White or Bhullar LOCKS to win their fights by any stretch, but they are still heavy values and I think longterm we gain an advantage targeting these plays in cash.
This isn’t an all-in type of play, but Arjan Bhullar is someone below 8k who I want exposure to on DraftKings. He’s making his UFC debut against Luis Henrique, who’s not a great talent but he’s one of the better wrestlers in the HW division.
Fortunately, Bhullar is a former Olympic wrestler who has transitioned to MMA, so I think it’s likely Bhullar can keep it on the feet. Can Bhullar finish himself? I’m not so sure, but he does have an ITD line of +150 and is actually a -190 favorite, so he has strong odds value for the price.
This may be a snoozer of a debut for him, holding Henrique against the cage, but he may be able to land takedowns of his own and potentially finish somewhere down the line. If he was 9k, I don’t think I’d be high on Bhullar, but at 7.9k he’s in play in all formats.
Tournament Plays
1. Adriano Martins, $9,000
One of the strongest pivots to DJ in tournaments is Adriano Martins, who costs 9k. He’s currently a -440 favorite with a prop of -130 to win inside the distance, and it’s the highest prop on this card.
Martins isn’t the safest fighter in the world, he doesn’t strike at a high clip and is a bit inconsistent, but he definitely has upside in this fight and that’s what I’m looking for. Martins is a high-level submission grappler and has shown enough wrestling skills to beat other strong grapplers like Rustam Khabilov. But instead of forcing the fight on the ground, Martins likes to stand and look for the knockout.
He’s been successful at it too, and I think he’s got a good shot to finish his opponent Kajan Johnson, who’s shown a poor chin in the past. It’s not a dead chin, but Johnson has been knocked out several times and has had his jaw broken, and I think it’s unlikely that he holds up to the power of Martins. Johnson isn’t very dangerous on the feet himself, his real strength is grappling, but I don’t think he’ll have any success here against Martins who should be a far better grappler.
The reason this fight isn’t a lock is because Martins strikes at a low rate, and if he doesn’t get an early KO, he might lose simply on volume or score 60 points in a decision win. But he has a good chance to finish, and a good chance to finish early, so I want exposure to him in tournaments.
Tyson Pedro, 7.7k
We’re sticking to the theme of value plays on this card, and Tyson Pedro is another one at 7.7k. He’s in the same boat as White and Bhullar in that I don’t consider his matchup with Ilir Latifi an easy one, and he could very well fall short, but he’s moved up to a -140 favorite and has significant value for the price.
Even further, his odds to win inside the distance are +110, which is one of the best lines on the card. I actually think people are overrating him a bit in this matchup, but there’s no discounting the potential upside he has, and that’s what I’m looking for.
This is a LHW fight with two big hitters and Latifi is coming off a knockout loss himself. There aren’t too many dogs I love to finish, and I think Pedro has one of the better chances to finish compared to everyone below 8k. I am definitely willing to get some shares of him at his price.
Fade of the Week
1. Jeremy Stephens, 8.2k
Originally, my fade was Henry Cejudo, but since Demetrious Johnson was removed from the card, that puts Cejudo very much in play in my opinion. So my new fade is going to be Jeremy Stephens, who costs 8.2k*
There’s nothing to hate about Stephens, but we know he’s not going to shoot for or land many takedowns, and he’s not a high volume striker, so his points will come directly from finishing. It’s tough to count on a finish in this fight, thought, as his opponent Gilbert Melendez has not been knocked out in 28 pro fights. And Stephens has an ITD prop of +402 as he’s become the slight underdog.
He can win, but he’s likely not scoring more than 70 points in a decision, so I don’t consider him worth targeting without hoping for the finish. That’s not something I can count on in this matchup.